The Future Of Economic Development In The Gulf Cooperation Council States

This book delves into the economic development of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Since the 1960s, the GCC states have harnessed their potential to exploit the wealth accrued from the oil boom to build their infrastructure and grow their economies. However, the high level of dependency on oil as the primary source feeding their output made their economies volatile and vulnerable to fluctuations in the global oil prices. Moreover, the plunge in oil prices and the threat of depletion of this natural resource pose serious challenges to the GCC countries. Consequently, the GCC governments have realized the importance of diversifying their economies following the need to move away from reliance on hydrocarbon. This book contributes to the theoretical literature by enriching the debate on the transition of the GCC countries from rentier states to diversified economies. It helps students and scholars understand this transformation with an expansive comprehension of the contemporary challenges facing the region, as well as outlining prospects for the future.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries own 30 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves and largely depend on oil for their income. Yet the GCC faces serious challenges. The global demand for oil is expected to continue declining, and the average long-run oil price could become lower than its historical average in the future. This book is a research-based, structural macroeconomic analysis, providing evidence-based and future-facing policy recommendations for GCC governments. First, it analyzes historical data to explain the macroeconomic performance and economic policies of the GCC countries from 1970 to 2019. Then it presents ten-year dynamic stochastic projections from 2020 to 2030. The book examines debt sustainability and optimal fiscal policies – i.e., government spending and taxation. It also analyses structural issues, such as savings and productivity, from an institutional perspective, taking into account education, the labor market, and pension funds, as well as other factors that have a close effect on economic performance. The book is comprehensive and thorough, it relies on extensive econometric analyses, including rigorous time series analysis. The author uses both calibration of theoretical models and estimation, facilitating projections for the next decade of key economic variables under different policy scenarios. The book also assesses what the future of the GCC economies will look like if climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic continue to adversely affect oil supply and demand and the price of oil, given their current policies and institutions. As well as scholars and researchers of economics and finance, the book will engage policymakers in central banks, treasury departments, planning councils, research institutes, and think tanks.

The four volumes in this major research collection address the key economic issues which affect the future development and diversification of the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), namely Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE and Oman. The work brings together state-of-the-art analysis by some 40 international scholars who participated in a major joint initiative by the EU and the GCC, the al-Jisr Gulf-Europe Research Program. This collection will prove an essential reference work for policy makers and scholars on all the critical issues facing the Gulf countries as their economies develop beyond dependence on the oil and gas sector and forge new international alliances.

The formation of human capital--the knowledge, skills, and health that people accumulate over their lifetimes--is critical for the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Human capital contributes not only to human development and employment but also to the long-term sustainability of a diversified economic growth model that is knowledge based and private sector driven. This approach is critical, given that income from oil and gas will eventually decline and that the nature of work is evolving in response to rapid technological changes, in turn demanding new skill sets. The GCC governments have demonstrated their strong political will for this shift: four of them are among the first countries to join the World Bank’s Human Capital Project—a global effort to improve investments in people as measured by the Human Capital Index. The GCC countries face four main challenges: • Low levels of basic proficiency among schoolchildren • A mismatch between education and the labor market • A relatively high rate of adult mortality and morbidity • A unique labor market , in which wages in the public sector are more generous than in the private sector and government employment of nationals is virtually guaranteed To address these challenges, this report outlines four strategies in a“whole-of-government†? approach: • Investing in high-quality early childhood development • Preparing healthier, better educated, and skilled youth for the future • Enabling greater adult labor force participation • Creating an enabling environment for human capital formation These strategies are based on best practices in other countries and feature some of the GCC countries’ plans, including their national “Visions,†? to take their economies and societies further into the twenty-first century. With the COVID-19 pandemic, the GCC countries face additional challenges that may worsen some preexisting vulnerabilities and erode human capital. In response, the GCC governments have taken multiple measures to protect their populations’ health and their economies. Any country’s decision to reopen its economy needs to closely consider public health consequences to avoid a resurgence of infections and any further erosion of its human capital. The COVID-19 crisis underscores that the need to accelerate and improve investment in human capital has never been greater. Once the GCC countries return to a “new normal,†? they will be in a position to achieve diversified and sustainable growth by adopting, and then tailoring, the strategies presented in this report.

Filling a void in academic and policy-relevant literature on the topic of the green economy in the Arabian Gulf, this edited volume provides a multidisciplinary analysis of the key themes and challenges relating to the green economy in the region, including in the energy and water sectors and the urban environment, as well as with respect to cross-cutting issues, such as labour, intellectual property and South-South cooperation. Over the course of the book, academics and practitioners from various fields demonstrate why transitioning into a ‘green economy’ – a future economy based on environmental sustainability, social equity and improved well-being – is not an option but a necessity for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) States. Through chapters covering key economic sectors and cross-cutting issues, the book examines the GCC states’ quest to align their economies and economic development with the imperatives of environmental sustainability and social welfare, and proposes a way forward, based on lessons learned from experiences in the region and beyond. This volume will be of great relevance to scholars and policy makers with an interest in environmental economics and policy.

The ‘Arab Spring’ of 2011 has affected the countries of the region to varying degrees, including the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members, comprising Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Bahrain. The GCC has become a significant regional bloc playing a vital economic and political role far beyond its shores, given its geopolitical strategic location, a preponderance of global energy reserves and a major international player through the use of accumulated financial reserves. A new Gulf is rising, one that is more self assertive, looking to expand its membership to other Arab countries such as Jordan and Morocco, while at the same time strengthening the bloc’s relationship with current and emerging trading and strategic partners in Europe, USA and Asia. Regional and international realities, especially the uncertainties unleashed by the ‘Arab Spring’, are forcing Gulf leadership to initiate new policies involving closer cooperation amongst GCC countries to address emerging challenges. This volume brings together thirty renowned academics and specialists to examine a range of multifaceted social, political and economic issues facing the GCC in key areas such as: · Diversification from a high dependency on a narrow hydrocarbon base · Social transformation, youth employment and effective gender participation · Outward and inward foreign direct investment flows · Prospects for education reforms and e-learning. · Sustainable security in oil, renewable energy (including nuclear) and food · Corporate governance, transparency and enhancing the private sector's operating environment · The role and governance of Gulf Sovereign Wealth Funds in investing their surpluses. The volume also offers insights for challenges facing the GCC in monetary union, expanding the regional debt market and Sukuk issuance, GCC intellectual property rights application, detailed assessments of individual GCC country risk analysis, as well as the sustainability of long term government fiscal stimulus programs at the expense of private sector involvement.

Abstract: The economies of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are heavily reliant on oil. Greater economic diversification would reduce their exposure to volatility and uncertainty in the global oil market, help create jobs in the private sector, increase productivity and sustainable growth, and help create the non-oil economy that will be needed in the future when oil revenues start to dwindle. The GCC countries have followed many of the standard policies that are usually thought to promote more diversified economies, including reforms to improve the business climate, the development of domestic infrastructure, financial deepening, and improvements in education. Nevertheless, success to date has been limited. This paper argues that increased diversification will require realigning incentives for firms and workers in the economies—fixing these incentives is the “missing link” in the GCC countries’ diversification strategies. At present, producing non-tradables is less risky and more profitable for firms as they can benefit from the easy availability of low-wage foreign labor and the rapid growth in government spending, while the continued availability of high-paying and secure public sector jobs discourages nationals from pursuing entrepreneurship and private sector employment. Measures to begin to address these incentive issues could include limiting and reorienting government spending, strengthening private sector competition, providing guarantees and financial support for those firms engaged in export activity, and implementing labor market reforms to make nationals more competitive for private sector employment.

This book looks at the current state of entrepreneurship development in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, consisting of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. It is a comprehensive state-of-the-art coverage of entrepreneurship and small business management issues, supported with theoretical discussion and empirical evidence. The book covers current processes in each country, paving the ways for potential investors, researchers, academics and professionals to better understand this region. An outcome of long-lasting endeavour, this book includes contributions from experts across the Gulf region.