The Future Of The Non Proliferation Treaty

In 1995 a Conference is to be convened to review and extend the Treaty on the NonProliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The Future of the NPT brings together a distinguished group of individuals, including the elected President of the 1995 NPT Conference, to analyse four crucial agenda areas relevant to the Conference: the preConference activities to be undertaken by both States Parties and the Conference Secretariat; those security issues that relate to a review of the treaty, such as nuclear disarmament and security assurances; peaceful uses and verification questions; and regional issues. With nuclear nonproliferation currently occupying a prominent position on the international security agenda, the 1995 Conference offers a unique opportunity for a constructive discussion on these areas and it is hoped that this volume will provide a contribution to that end.

This book presents different views on nuclear disarmament and arms control and a brief history of nuclear non-proliferation policy and the nuclear test ban issue. It describes the preparations for and results of the 1990 Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference and the 1991 Partial Test Ban Treaty Amendment Conference. With a view to 1995, it assesses the chances for consensus or dissension regarding regarding nuclear proliferation and the test ban, and the prospects for an extension of NPT. It concludes by examining the future and the threat of a new North-South divide over these issues.

The 1995 conference on the review and extension of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty may well mark an important turning point. The treaty itself, but also the wider international regime built around it are at stake. The Future of the International Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime deals with various aspects of the problems of nuclear proliferation and the international struggle against it. Authors from Europe, the United States and Australia have contributed to this book, which was produced under the auspices of the Netherlands Institute of International Relations `Clingendael'. The reader is first offered regional case studies on North Korea, South Asia, the Middle East and the former Soviet Union, followed by chapters on nuclear safeguards and export controls systems and contributions on a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and security guarantees. The two concluding chapters evaluate and propose policies to strengthen the non-proliferation regime beyond 1995. It will be of interest to policy-makers, students of international relations and journalists.

There is almost universal support for the view that the world would be an even more dangerous place if there were to be more nuclear-weapon states. There would be more fingers on more triggers and, probably, a greater risk that a trigger might be pulled with incalculable consequences. It is easy to see, therefore, that there is a collective interest in avoiding the spread of nuclear weapons to further countries. Nations do not, however, normally undertake or refrain from actions because of such a collective interest; they do so because of their individual interests. This is especially true in the field of national security. A nation perceiving that it has a real interest in developing nuclear weapons is not very likely to refrain from doing so merely because it is told such development would be bad for the world community. If the global interest in avoiding the spread of nuclear weapons to more coun tries is to succeed, conditions that make it in the interest of each individual nation to renounce nuclear weapons need to be created or maintained. Fortunately, conditions have prevailed in which the vast majority of nations have seen an advantage in making legally binding nonproliferation commitments. An important rationale for many of these countries has been that these commitments would facilitate the transfer of desired civil nuclear technology.

The Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), is the cornerstone of non-proliferation and disarmament efforts. Yet its negotiation and success were not inevitable. This book aims to address the developments that led to the negotiation of the treaty, examine its implementation, and address challenges that the NPT faces going forward.

This study looks at the interpretations and effects of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and offers readings of its possible future effects.