The Great U S China Tech War

The United States and China are locked in a “cold tech war,” and the winner will end up dominating the twenty-first century. Beijing was not considered a tech contender a decade ago. Now, some call it a leader. America is already behind in critical areas. It is no surprise how Chinese leaders made their regime a tech powerhouse. They first developed and then implemented multiyear plans and projects, adopting a determined, methodical, and disciplined approach. As a result, China’s political leaders and their army of technocrats could soon possess the technologies of tomorrow. America can still catch up. Unfortunately, Americans, focused on other matters, are not meeting the challenges China presents. A whole-of-society mobilization will be necessary for the U.S. to regain what it once had: control of cutting-edge technologies. This is how America got to the moon, and this is the key to winning this century. Americans may not like the fact that they’re once again in a Cold War–type struggle, but they will either adjust to that reality or get left behind.

Techno-Geopolitics explores contemporary U.S.–China relations and the future of global cyber-security through the prisms of geopolitics and financial-technological competition. It puts forward a new conceptual framework for an emerging field of digital statecraft and discusses a range of key issues including the controversies around 5G technology, policy regulations over TikTok and WeChat, the emergence of non-traditional espionage, and potential trends in post-pandemic foreign policy. Analysing the ramifications of the ongoing U.S.–China trade standoff, this book maps the terrain of technological war and the race for global technological leadership and economic supremacy. It shows how China’s technological advancements not only have been the key to its national economic development but also have been the core focus of U.S. intelligence. Further, it draws on U.S.–China counterintelligence cases sourced from the U.S. Department of Justice and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) to explore emerging patterns and techniques of China’s espionage practice. A cutting-edge study on the future of statecraft, this volume will be of great interest to scholars and researchers of international relations, security and intelligence studies, information technology and artificial intelligence and political science, especially U.S. foreign policy and China studies. It will also be of great interest to policymakers, career bureaucrats, security and intelligence practitioners, technology regulators, and professionals working with think tanks and embassies.

US-China Tech War: What Chinese Tech History Reveals About Future Tech Rivalry by Nina Xiang reviews the history of China's technology development and attempts to understand how it could shape current and future tech rivalry between the United States and China. The book focuses on the semiconductor industry, the epicenter of the current US-China tech rivalry. Despite decades of government-led effort to boost its chips industry, China has lagged far behind other countries and the country is extremely vulnerable to U.S. tech blockage. Why did China fail to achieve its goals after repeated effort? What does tightening technology blockage by the U.S. mean to China's tech space? How deep will the rift between the two countries' tech ecosystem be? The book dispels a number of myths about how China progressed technologically: the whole-nation model, forced technology transfer, and China's efforts to stimulate home-grown tech. With a deeper look, these hyped terms reveal a different side that would surprise readers. In addition, China's tech tradition and tech DNA have an important influence on China's technology development. The country's strength in tech applications has deep roots. This will also determine how U.S.-China tech rivalry will play out. Quotes from the book: "It became clear to Moore that, no matter how much science went into conceiving of silicon wafers, there would always be an artlike skill associated with their production." - Robert Curley "Let me tell you something: High-end semiconductor manufacturing is black magic. Both the processes and tools used for it are very complex. ASML's EUV lithography machine is probably the most complex tool humankind ever developed since it stopped jumping between trees. It took billions of Euros and decades of experience to perfect it. Other experienced lithography machine suppliers failed at it. China has no experience in high-end semiconductor manufacturing tools with the exception of one-off/few-off prototypes." - Bora Taş on Quora The belief in the value of scientific truth is not derived from nature but is a product of definite cultures. - Max Weber One sentiment which is assimilated by the scientist from the very outset of his training pertains to the purity of science. Science must not suffer itself to become the handmaiden of theology or economy or state. The function of this sentiment is likewise to preserve the autonomy of science. For if such extra-scientific criteria of the value of science as presumable consonance with religious doctrines or economic utility or political appropriateness are adopted, science becomes acceptable only insofar as it meets these criteria. In other words, as the "pure science sentiment" is eliminated, science becomes subject to the direct control of other institutional agencies and its place in society becomes increasingly uncertain. - Robert K. Merton

What new directions in China’s digital economy mean for us all China is the largest homogenous digital market on Earth: unified by language, culture, and mobile payments. Not only a consumer market of unrivaled size, it’s also a vast and hyperactive innovation ecosystem for new technologies. And as China’s digital economy moves from a consumer-focused phase to an enterprise-oriented one, Chinese companies are rushing to capitalize on ways the newer wave of tech—the Internet of Things, AI, blockchain, cloud computing, and data analytics (iABCD)—can unlock value for their businesses from non-traditional angles. In China’s Data Economy, Winston Ma—investment professional, capital markets attorney, adjunct professor of digital economy, and bestselling author—details the profound global implications of this new direction, including how Chinese apps for services such as food delivery expand so quickly they surpass their U.S. models within a couple of years, and how the sheer scale and pace of Chinese innovation might lead to an AI arms race in which China and the U.S. vie aggressively for leadership. How China’s younger netizens participate in their evolving digital economy as consumers, creators, and entrepreneurs Why Online/Office (OMO, Online-merge-with-Offline) integration is viewed as the natural next step on from the O2O (Online-to-Offline) model used in the rest of the world The ways in which traditional Chinese industries such as retail, banking, and insurance are innovating to stay in the game What emerging markets can learn from China as they leapfrog past the personal computer age altogether, diving straight into the mobile-first economy Anyone interested in what’s next for Chinese digital powerhouses—investors, governments, entrepreneurs, international business players—will find this an essential guide to what lies ahead as China’s flexes new digital muscles to create new forms of value and challenge established tech giants across the world.

China is hot. The world sees a glorious future for this sleeping giant, three times larger than the United States, predicting it will blossom into the world's biggest economy by 2010. According to Chang, however, a Chinese-American lawyer and China specialist, the People's Republic is a paper dragon. Peer beneath the veneer of modernization since Mao's death, and the symptoms of decay are everywhere: Deflation grips the economy, state-owned enterprises are failing, banks are hopelessly insolvent, foreign investment continues to decline, and Communist party corruption eats away at the fabric of society. Beijing's cautious reforms have left the country stuck midway between communism and capitalism, Chang writes. With its impending World Trade Organization membership, for the first time China will be forced to open itself to foreign competition, which will shake the country to its foundations. Economic failure will be followed by government collapse. Covering subjects from party politics to the Falun Gong to the government's insupportable position on Taiwan, Chang presents a thorough and very chilling overview of China's present and not-so-distant future.

The relation between China and the United States is arguably the most important bilateral relation in the world today. The U.S. and China are respectively the largest and the second largest economies in the world. They are also respectively the largest and the second largest trading nations in the world as well as each other’s most important trading partner. If China and the U.S. work together as partners towards a common goal, many things are possible. However, there exist significant friction and potential conflict in their economic relations. The large and persistent U.S.-China bilateral trade deficit is one of the problems. It is essential to know the true state of the China-U.S. trade balance before effective solutions can be devised to narrow the trade surplus or deficit. The impacts and potential impacts of the 2018 trade war between China and the U.S. on the two economies are analysed and discussed. The longterm forces that underlie the economic relations between the two countries beyond the 2018 trade war are examined. In this connection, how a “new type of major-power relation” between the two countries can help to keep the competition friendly and avert a war between them is explored. ~~~~~~~~ Lawrence J. Lau’s timely The China-U.S. Trade War and Future Economic Relations is full of careful analysis, penetrating insight and helpful suggestions from the world’s preeminent economist on this relationship. —Michael J. Boskin Tully M. Friedman Professor of Economics, Stanford University Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This sober and systematic study of U.S.-China trade relations and of technological development in the two countries is particularly timely. Lawrence Lau is one of the world’s foremost economists working on these issues. —Dwight H. Perkins Harold Hitchings Burbank Professor of Political Economy, Emeritus Former Chair, Department of Economics, Harvard University This is a timely and penetrating analysis of the China-U.S. trade and economic relations, from its origins to its impacts and to a way forward. —Yingyi Qian Chairman of the Council, Westlake University Former Dean, School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University Counsellor of the State Council, People’s Republic of China Lawrence Lau’s book on the current U.S.-China trade war is insightful, balanced and comprehensive; rich in data on trade, investment, science and technology. It is essential reading for anyone who wants to get past the headlines. —A. Michael Spence Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences (2001) Senior Fellow, The Hoover Institution, Stanford University Lawrence Lau brings light in the form of rigorous honest fact-based economic analysis to a subject where most of the discussion has been heated bluster, false claims, and political rhetoric. —Lawrence H. Summers Former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury; Former President, Harvard University There is no topic more important, or more timely, or more urgent, than the China-U.S. trade war. Professor Lau is the ideal person to write about the implications of the China-U.S. trade war and the proposed resolution. —Tung Chee-Hwa Vice-Chairman, Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference National Committee Chairman, China-U.S. Exchange Foundation The history of Sino-American relations, to a great extent, has been a shared history. Lawrence Lau’s timely and penetrating study will tell us it is still in best interest for both countries if they continue to pursue a shared journey and destination instead of parting ways. —Xu Guoqi Kerry Group Professor in Globalization History, The University of Hong Kong Author of Chinese and Americans: A Shared History This beautifully composed book uses nontechnical language to unravel the intricacies of the 2018 U.S.-China trade war, together with its long-term impact. I learned a lot from reading it. —Chen-Ning Yang Nobel Laureate in Physics (1957)

Sanctions as War is the first critical analysis of economic sanctions from a global perspective. Featuring case studies from 11 sanctioned countries and theoretical essays, it will be of immediate interest to those interested in understanding how sanctions became the common sense of American foreign policy.

China's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 was heralded as historic, and for good reason: the world's most populous nation was joining the rule-based system that has governed international commerce since World War II. But the full ramifications of that event are only now becoming apparent, as the Chinese economic juggernaut has evolved in unanticipated and profoundly troublesome ways. In this book, journalist Paul Blustein chronicles the contentious process resulting in China's WTO membership and the transformative changes that followed, both good and bad – for China, for its trading partners, and for the global trading system as a whole. The book recounts how China opened its markets and underwent far-reaching reforms that fuelled its economic takeoff, but then adopted policies – a cheap currency and heavy-handed state intervention – that unfairly disadvantaged foreign competitors and circumvented WTO rules. Events took a potentially catastrophic turn in 2018 with the eruption of a trade war between China and the United States, which has brought the trading system to a breaking point. Regardless of how the latest confrontation unfolds, the world will be grappling for decades with the challenges posed by China Inc.