The Impacts Of Covid 19 And Policy Responses In Rural Economies

Two years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the health, economic, and social disruptions caused by this global crisis continue to evolve. The impacts of the pandemic are likely to endure for years to come, with poor, marginalized, and vulnerable groups the most affected. In COVID-19 & Global Food Security: Two Years Later, the editors bring together contributions from new IFPRI research, blogs, and the CGIAR COVID-19 Hub to examine the pandemic’s effects on poverty, food security, nutrition, and health around the world. This volume presents key lessons learned on food security and food system resilience in 2020 and 2021 and assesses the effectiveness of policy responses to the crisis. Looking forward, the authors consider how the pandemic experience can inform both recovery and longer-term efforts to build more resilient food systems.

In this paper we focus specifically on differences in the welfare impacts of COVID-19 on rural livelihoods between countries using nationally representative data that we disaggregate by food system typology. This typology captures key structural differences in the organization of rural economies and the vulnerabilities to rural livelihoods due to the COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdown measures. In particular, we draw on household survey data collected from 54 countries through the World Bank’s COVID-19 High Frequency Monitoring Dashboard to generate descriptive data on COVID-19 impacts in rural areas across three dimensions: income, coping strategies and food security. These descriptive data are disaggregated into four food system categories and contextualized and validated through a systematic review of rigorous, survey-based studies of COVID-19 impacts in rural areas. Through this analysis, the report provides insights on how COVID-19 is influencing rural livelihoods, how its impacts vary between countries and food system typologies, and, ultimately, how policymakers and the international community need to respond in order to foster an inclusive and sustainable recovery.

This report contributes to the project ‘Securing agriculture and rural development in times of COVID-19, pathways to regional responses for recovery, reforms, and resilience’ by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The objectives of the report are threefold: 1) to assess the multiple impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on agriculture, food security, and rural community; 2) to review the policy responses taken by the governments of eight Central Asia and Caucasus (CAC) countries to mitigate the effects of the crisis, and 3) to provide contextual options to build the resilience of the agricultural sector during post-COVID-19 recovery and against future shocks.

This book analyses the economic and social impact of the Covid-19 crisis with special focus on India. It examines the economic disruption caused by the pandemic, policy responses to it and the prospect of a severe global recession. It also covers how the pandemic has contributed to considerable suffering among the masses and affected socio-cultural relationships, behavioural patterns and psychological attitudes governing human interaction. A topical and timely collection on the pandemic, the essays in the volume discuss several key themes which include, · The Corona pandemic and the changing global economy; growth, trade and macroeconomic recovery; · Public health and policy failures; appropriate policy response; · Impact on education; guidelines for the future; · Idea of economic herd immunity; impact of India’s lockdown, crisis of the migrant labourers; · Impact on agriculture, industry, firms, households and the informal sector; · Implications of digital technology for production, labour and labour relations; · Violence amidst the virus; Covid 19 and Hindu- Muslim conflict in India, domestic violence, questions of occupation, identity, gender and vulnerability; · De-globalisation and environmental challenges in the post-Covid era. Engagingly written, this comprehensive volume compiles original research by leading economists from India and abroad. It will be useful for scholars and researchers of economics, of the Indian economy, development economics, development studies, labour studies, public policy, public administration, governance, sociology and political economy.

Rwanda’s policy response to COVID-19 has been widely praised for its rapid, systematic, and comprehensive approach to containing the pandemic. Although the economic consequences are unavoidable, the country expects to return its economy to its high-growth trajectory as the pandemic subsides. We use economic modeling tools designed to estimate the short-term economywide impacts of the unanticipated, rapid-onset economic shocks of COVID-19 on Rwanda. - Results show that during the six-week lockdown that began in March, Rwanda’s GDP fell 39.1 percent (RWF 435 billion; USD 484 million) when compared to a no-COVID situation in the same period. - Results further show that Rwanda’s GDP in 2020 will be between 12 and 16 percent lower than a predicted no-COVID GDP, depending on the pace of the recovery. The losses in annual GDP are between RWF 1.0 and 1.5 trillion (USD 1.1–1.6 billion). - While GDP for the industrial and services sectors were estimated to have fallen during the lockdown period by 57 and 48 percent, respectively, exemptions of COVID-19 restrictions for the agricultural sector limited the decline in agricultural GDP to 7 percent compared to a noCOVID situation. - During the lockdown period, the national poverty rate is estimated to have increased by 10.9 percentage points as 1.3 million people, mostly in rural areas, fell into temporary poverty. Poverty rates are expected to stabilize by the end of 2020, increasing only by between 0.4 and 1.1 percentage points. While these figures may be encouraging, they mask the impacts on poor households of the sharp poverty spike during the lockdown and the inherent complexity of poverty dynamics post-lockdown. Looking forward, the speed and success of Rwanda’s recovery will depend critically on the expansion of Rwanda’s social protection programs, boosting enterprises of all sizes, support to the agri-food system, and restoration of international trade.

There have been numerous economic difficulties felt by several countries in the Near East and North Africa (NENA) in recent years, generating difficult and region-specific challenges for the food and agriculture systems of the region. The COVID-19 pandemic and the consequent economic crisis made a bad situation worse. This report does an extensive review and analysis of policy decisions made by 19 governments in the region in response to the COVID-19 crisis, from March 2020 to May 2020. The broad range of policy decisions were reviewed based on the Food and Agriculture Policy Decision Analysis (FAPDA) database, complemented by information on disruptions of food and agriculture systems and related policy responses provided by regional and country offices. Results from the review indicate what were the major policy responses from most countries in the region, including common policy responses targeting consumers and producers. It further shows that the magnitude of measures implemented in the region is characterized by a somewhat foreseeable divide between oil- and gas-rich countries and all other NENA countries. Benefiting from this consolidated analysis of the regional policy response, the report draws insights and provides general recommendations that may feed the policy debate at the national, regional, and global levels, facilitating better-targeted policy support and contribute to economic recovery with coordinated policy responses across countries.

The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to considerably affect the Ethiopian economy directly and indirectly due to global shocks and to the different restrictive preventative measures the country is taking. We analyze these economic effects using multisector economywide income multiplier models built on the two latest Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) developed for Ethiopia. Three external sector channels are the focus of the analysis: commodity exports, strategic imports, and remittances. Results indicate that in the absence of any policy responses, the Ethiopian economy is expected to experience a loss of approximately 4.3 to 5.5 percent of its annual GDP due to exports, strategic imports, and remittances that are one-third lower relative to the no-COVID situation over a period of six-months. This translates into estimated reductions in labor income of between 4.2 and 5.2 percent. The SAM multiplier model estimates also imply that these negative shocks lead to household income losses that amount to between 3.9 and 6.4 percent. In particular, the urban poor will be the most affected as they lose real incomes in the range of 6.6 to 8.5 percent. These income losses are estimated to result in a 3.5 percentage point rise in the national poverty headcount.

As most countries in the world Guatemala has been affected by COVID-19. In January 2020 the country decreed travel bans from China, which were later expanded to other countries. Still, Guatemala had the first confirmed COVID case in March 13 and the first death in March 15. Some days before that, on March 5, the government had declared the “state of calamity” (Declaración del Estado de Calamidad Pública - Decreto Gubernativo Número 5-2020), which allowed the government to limit different rights, and to take different actions to protect the health and safety of all persons in Guatemala. This brief note covers the following topics until the time of this report. First, it shows the evolution of the pandemic, using different indicators. Second, it summarizes the main policy responses and costs and financing. Third, it shows some actual impacts with available data up to the time of this writing. Fourth, the modeling framework for the simulations is briefly presented. Fifth, the document presents simulations of different scenarios for the evolution of Guatemala’s economy until year 2022. A final section discusses some preliminary policy considerations. Subsequent reports will update the information of this document and sharpen de policy conclusions.