The Outlook For Arab Gulf Cooperation

This report examines what binds and divides the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—and presents the outlook for the GCC’s evolution over the next ten years. The study aims to help policymakers better understand intra-GCC dynamics and prepare for future trends in a region with high stakes for U.S. strategic interests.

If there has been a gap in the knowledge of the GCC, this book now fills it. This volume presents the essential information schematically, with sound comment by the author, and includes a rich collection of documents.

In May 1981 Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman established the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to facilitate cooperation, settle disputes, and strengthen security. This is the first English-language book to describe the GCC and assess its impact on the security and stability of the Gulf. It addresses four specific aspects of the GCC: a description of the basic charter and the United Economic Agreement; its structure and the policy of summitry; its achievements and the challenges before it; and the official, popular, and reformist views of its proper role.

The GCC region’s non-hydrocarbon growth momentum remains strong, driven by higher domestic demand, increased gross capital inflows, and reform implementation. Oil production – which depends on OPEC+ decisions – will be subdued in the near term. Inflation is contained and current account surpluses are high. Fiscal balances remain healthy, supported by fiscal reforms and high oil prices. The primary non-oil deficits are expected to decrease to 24 percent of GDP by 2028, with higher non-oil revenue reflecting sustained fiscal and structural reforms and contained expenditures. High global uncertainty is weighing on the outlook.

The Gulf Cooperation Council represents both a model of development and unity in the Arab world and a working example of interstate cooperation to other nations. In this volume, contributors describe the rationale for Gulf unity and cooperation and analyze the financial, economic, and legal institutions of the GCC member states (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Bahrain, and Qatar). They focus on the GCC's role in maintaining stability in the Arabian peninsula, an area that is clearly vital to U.S. interests. Contributors pinpoint the essential elements of GCC unity, including its efforts to obtain optimum economic self-sufficiency, to maximize market share and revenue from oil production, and to establish an integrated legal framework. The GCC's unique security needs, given the member states' vast combined area and thinly spread populations, are also discussed. An overview of the strategic interests and policies of both superpowers toward the region reveals a history of decline in their influence and prestige that is a result, it is argued, of misperceptions and misguided policies. Finally, documentation and bibliographic sections enhance the book's usefulness as a handbook on the GCC and the Arabian Gulf states.

From the unification of North and South Yemen, to the struggle for Mahgreb unity, and the experiences of the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council, this book presents a complex portrait of the history and prospects for Arab integration.

The global and regional economic environment remains challenging. Global growth remains tepid, and although some pick-up is expected, risks are tilted to the downside. Recent volatility in financial markets is having a significant impact on some large emerging markets, highlighting the challenges that will be faced in unwinding the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policy. Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East are also high.