The Politics Of Ballistic Missile Nonproliferation

During the presidency of George Bush (1989-93), the proliferation of nuclear chemical and biological weapons, and the ballistic missiles capable of delivering them, rose greatly in significance as issues on the American security agenda. In the missile field, this became evident by the efforts of certain elements in the executive branch and several congressmen to improve domestic and international implementation of the Missile Technology Control Regime. The Politics of Ballistic Missile Nonproliferation examines the political, bureaucratic and systemic issues that interacted to determine the outcome of these efforts.

The Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) of the Monterey Institute of International Studies and the Mountbatten Centre for International Studies (MCIS) at the University of Southampton are very pleased to initiate a new Occasional Paper series devoted to the topic of ballistic missile proliferation. The focus of this series reflects the concern of both centers that the spread of ballistic missiles constitutes one of the most serious and complex nonproliferation challenges today. This problem was highlighted in an extensive study on the future of nuclear weapons conducted by MCIS between 1997-99. It pointed to the role ballistic missile proliferation could play in threatening new action-reaction arms instabilities of great complexity and unpredictability, the reaction part of this equation being the pursuit of ballistic missile defenses, in particular by the United States. These instabilities were likely to simultaneously limit nuclear disarmament and stimulate nuclear proliferation, as well as threaten peaceful uses of space. In parallel, however, a process was also underway to build a regime to control ballistic missiles. This situation led MICS to initiate a project focused on addressing this emerging range of political and technical issues. One of its aims is to move the debate over missile defenses into an international context. A second is to assist in international efforts to develop mechanisms for multilateral control of ballistic missiles. The strategy chosen by MCIS was to engage states by requesting the preparation of short papers setting out national perceptions of the challenges facing the international community in the areas of missile proliferation and missile defense. An international workshop that included leading research organizations and individuals working in the field followed. Its purpose was to identify both the main policy issues emerging from the national papers and the evolving international debate, and to prepare the agenda for a larger seminar bringing together a broader range of specialists and those who had attended the first research workshop. The first workshop took place in December 2000, and the seminar will occur in March 2001.The aim of the seminar is to initiate a process of .Track-2. international dialogue on these issues, as well as agree the formation of an international consortium of research institutes to pursue this work. The contributions to this Occasional Paper were initially prepared as presentations for the December 2000 workshop. At that meeting, it was suggested that an early volume offering an overview of the missile defense issue and emerging challenges would be a useful contribution to the international debate on the control of missile proliferation and defenses, and serve as the first product of the new venture, to be known as the Mountbatten Centre International Missile Forum (MCIMF). Initial partner organizations in this Forum are the publishers of this occasional paper, the Monterey Institute for International Studies (MIIS); the Institut Français des Relations Internationales (IFRI); the Japanese Institute of International Affairs (JIIA); the Moscow Center of the Carnegie Endowment; and the Peace Research Institute, Frankfurt (PRIF). We would also like to take this opportunity to acknowledge the generous financial support of the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, which has enabled the project to move forward on a secure financial basis, and to thank the editorial staff of CNS for their work in producing this publication.

The politics of nuclear weapons proliferation is high on the international agenda. Deep divisions have emerged between the nuclear haves and have-nots over the appropriate next steps in arms control and disarmament. Here a group of Australian and international scholars analyze some of the key issues in the nuclear non-proliferation debate.

Since the beginning of the crisis precipitated by Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in August 1990, the threat posed by Iraq's arsenal of ballistic missiles has been the focus of international attention. In the opening days of the U.S.-led military counteroffensive beginning on January 16, 1992, Iraq launched ballistic missiles against population centers in Israel and military bases in Saudi Arabia. The attacks intensified the terror of the war and prompted renewed efforts by the multinational force to destroy Saddam Hussein's military machine. The countries aligned against Iraq were prepared for attacks by chemically armed missiles, but Iraq's missile force proved to be of little military consequence. The missiles that survived the opening hours of Operation Desert Storm were conventionally armed, inaccurate and unreliable. Most of those that were actually launched either were intercepted by American antimissile defenses or failed to hit vital targets. But the political impact of the missiles was inestimable. The strikes symbolized Iraq's determination to prosecute the war no matter what the cost. By threatening to involve Israel, they created severe tensions and posed the risk that multinational military coalition would be dissolved, and they underscored the potential vulnerability of all the states in the region to Iraqi aggression. In this book, Janne E. Nolan argues that the use of missiles is a harbinger of the altered international security environment confronting the Untied States and its allies in the late twentieth century. Long believed to be a distant prospect, the adoption of technological resources to missile development is already occurring in over a dozen developing countries, many of them long-standing regional antagonists. These capabilities present complicated challenges to American interests and foreign policy, challenges that have only begun to be explored as a result of the Iraqi crisis. The author examines the evolution

This book addresses the current concern that ballistic missile technologies are spreading throughout the world. It examines the missile and missile-armament programs and technologies, and the ability of countries to acquire such technologies. The concluding chapter investigates international efforts to control ballistic missile proliferation.

As ballistic missile technology proliferates, and as ballistic missile defenses are deployed by both the Russian Federation and the United States, it is increasingly important for these two countries to seek ways to reap the benefits of systems that can protect their own national security interests against limited missile attacks from third countries without undermining the strategic balance that the two governments maintain to ensure stability. Regional Ballistic Missile Defense in the Context of Strategic Stability examines both the technical implications of planned missile defense deployments for Russian and U.S. strategic deterrents and the benefits and disadvantages of a range of options for cooperation on missile defense.