The Report Myanmar 2016

While major strides need to be taken to promote inclusive growth, critical developments across the country’s economy continue to heighten investor appetite. This was given a significant boost with the victory of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) over the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) in the November 2015 national elections. The NLD is expected to build upon efforts taken by outgoing President U Thein Sein to improve transparency, promote peace and increase spending on health and education, which have to some degree alleviated the strain left behind by decades of military rule. With the incoming NLD administration expected to prioritise inclusive growth, the outlook for all segments of Myanmar’s population is looking significantly more positive.

This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Myanmar’s economy grew broadly as expected in FY2015/16, at a healthy pace of 7.3 percent, despite massive floods during July–September 2015. Activity softened during the first half of FY2016/17, but is expected to recover in the second half on account of the resumption of construction in Yangon after a temporary halt for regulatory compliance purposes. The growth of agricultural production was softer than expected. The external environment has been weak owing to slowing demand from major trading partners and significant natural gas and other commodity price declines in 2015 and 2016. Macroeconomic imbalances persist, with continuing inflation pressure, an increased fiscal deficit, and a widening external current account deficit.

Although recent GDP growth has moderated from the double-digit highs of the early 2000s, it has remained above 5% for more than 25 years, supported by robust natural resource exports, steady foreign direct investment (FDI), rising incomes and private consumption, and rapid expansion of the industrial and services sectors. External headwinds and internal conflict have dampened the near-term outlook; however, the country’s long-term economic outlook remains positive, with rising investment in transport and power infrastructure expected to drive GDP and industrial growth, supported by a sharp increase in personal incomes and consumer spending.

In recent years trade and investment in Myanmar have soared, buoyed by ongoing efforts to liberalise the economy and a successful political transition in November 2015 that saw the National League for Democracy become the country’s first civilian-led government elected to power in modern history. Political reforms have brought significant economic benefits, as the US government moved to lift burdensome sanctions that had weighed on investor sentiment and trade growth. With the administration now moving to implement a host of domestic reforms, loosen internal trade restrictions and draft a new investment law, growth is expected to resume apace following a slowdown during the election year.

This book discusses parliamentary oversight and its role in curbing corruption in developing countries. Over the past decade, a growing body of research at the global and regional levels has demonstrated that parliamentary oversight is an important determinant of corruption and that effective oversight of public expenditure is an essential component of national anti-corruption strategies and programs. However, little research has been undertaken at the country level regarding how parliamentary oversight is undertaken, which oversight mechanisms are effective or on how national parliaments interact with other anti-corruption stakeholders. This book presents the results of a new large-scale, quantitative analysis which identifies the mechanisms through which institutional arrangements impact corruption, specifically through country case studies on the Caribbean region, Ghana, Myanmar, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda. Addressing a gap in scholarly knowledge while presenting practical policy advice for parliaments and for anti-corruption assistance agencies, this book will be of use to scholars interested in development, anti-corruption, public finance, as well as members of parliament, anti-corruption practitioners, and organizations working in parliamentary strengthening.

Since the abortive 1988 pro-democracy uprising, Myanmar (formerly Burma) has attracted increased attention from a wide range of observers. Yet, despite all the statements, publications and documentary films made about the country over the past 32 years, it is still little known and poorly understood. It remains the subject of many myths, mysteries and misconceptions. Between 2008 and 2019, Andrew Selth clarified and explained contemporary developments in Myanmar on the Lowy Institute’s internationally acclaimed blog, The Interpreter. This collection of his 97 articles provides a fascinating and informative record of that critical period, and helps to explain many issues that remain relevant today.

In 2016 and 2017, in response to small attacks by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, Myanmar’s armed forces launched “area clearance operations” against the Rohingya minority in Rakhine State—a response the U.S. government has called ethnic cleansing. This report explores the structure, training, and ethos of Myanmar’s armed forces to clarify the implications and challenges of, and the prospects for, finding constructive ways forward as well as an accounting for the past. Drawing on an in-depth review of the literature, extensive field experience, and interviews, the report is published by the United States Institute of Peace. Myanmar’s military leaders have long been haunted by the prospect that one day they may lose the power to control events and be brought before a court to account for their actions, and those of their subordinates. They have had good reason to be concerned.