The Report Nigeria 2013

As the single most populous nation in Africa, Nigeria recently overtook South Africa as the largest economy on the continent. Natural resources, oil and gas in particular, comprise the country’s single largest revenue-earner but the 170m person economy also has seen significant activity in recent years into the industrial, financial, telecoms and – as of 2013 – power sectors. Hydrocarbons reserves have traditionally attracted the vast majority of domestic and foreign investment in Nigeria. Oil production capacity has remained at roughly 2.5m barrels per day (bpd) since the start of 2000, although output fell to 2.2m bpd on average in 2012. Still, the country has long operated below its true potential and government efforts in recent years have sought to increase local value addition, by boosting refining capacity and minimising theft and bunkering. The country’s banking sector has been through a significant shake-up as well, resulting in a far healthier and more robust financial industry, while reforms in the telecoms and agricultural sectors have strengthened medium-term prospects.

This Financial Sector Stability Assessment on Nigeria discusses the macroeconomic performance and structure of the financial system. Although Nigerian economy experienced both domestic and external shocks in recent years, the economy continued to grow rapidly, achieving more than 7 percent growth each year since 2009. The performance of financial institutions has begun to improve, though some of the emergency anti-crisis measures continue to be in place. However, the regulatory and supervisory framework has gaps and weaknesses. In sum, the Nigerian economy has emerged from the banking crisis, and has the potential to enjoy an extended period of strong economic growth.

If not addressed in time, climate change is expected to exacerbate Nigeria’s current vulnerability to weather swings and limit its ability to achieve and sustain the objectives of Vision 20:2020 [as defined in http://www.npc.gov.ng /home/doc.aspx?mCatID=68253]. The likely impacts include: • A long-term reduction in crop yields of 20–30 percent • Declining productivity of livestock, with adverse consequences on livelihoods • Increase in food imports (up to 40 percent for rice long term) • Worsening prospects for food security, particularly in the north and the southwest • A long-term decline in GDP of up to 4.5 percent The impacts may be worse if the economy diversifies away from agriculture more slowly than Vision 20:2020 anticipates, or if there is too little irrigation to counter the effects of rising temperatures on rain-fed yields. Equally important, investment decisions made on the basis of historical climate may be wrong: projects ignoring climate change might be either under- or over-designed, with losses (in terms of excess capital costs or foregone revenues) of 20–40 percent of initial capital in the case of irrigation or hydropower. Fortunately, there is a range of technological and management options that make sense, both to better handle current climate variability and to build resilience against a harsher climate: • By 2020 sustainable land management practices applied to 1 million hectares can offset most of the expected shorter-term yield decline; gradual extension of these practices to 50 percent of cropland, possibly combined with extra irrigation, can also counter-balance longer-term climate change impacts. • Climate-smart planning and design of irrigation and hydropower can more than halve the risks and related costs of making the wrong investment decision. The Federal Government could consider 10 short-term priority responses to build resilience to both current climate variability and future change through actions to improve climate governance across sectors, research and extension in agriculture, hydro-meteorological systems; integration of climate factors into the design of irrigation and hydropower projects, and mainstreaming climate concerns into priority programs, such as the Agriculture Transformation Agenda.

Nigeria, the United States’ most important strategic partner in West Africa, is in grave trouble. While Nigerians often claim they are masters of dancing on the brink without falling off, the disastrous administration of President Goodluck Jonathan, the radical Islamic insurrection Boko Haram, and escalating violence in the delta and the north may finally provide the impetus that pushes it into the abyss of state failure. In this thoroughly updated edition, John Campbellexplores Nigeria’s post-colonial history and presents a nuanced explanation of the events and conditions that have carried this complex, dynamic, and very troubled giant to the edge. Central to his analysis are the oil wealth, endemic corruption, and elite competition that have undermined Nigeria’s nascent democratic institutions and alienated an increasingly impoverished population. However, state failure is not inevitable, nor is it in the interest of the United States. Campbell provides concrete new policy options that would not only allow the United States to help Nigeria avoid state failure but also to play a positive role in Nigeria’s political, social, and economic development.

Human Rights Watch’s World Report 2014 is the global rights watchdog’s flagship 24th annual review of global trends and news in human rights. An invaluable resource for journalists, diplomats, and citizens, it features not only incisive country surveys but also hard-hitting essays highlighting key human rights issues and striking photo essays by award-winning photographers. Customers outside of the UK and Europe: copies are available from Sevenstories.com

A report on development economics in action, by a crucial player in Nigeria's recent reforms. Corrupt, mismanaged, and seemingly hopeless: that's how the international community viewed Nigeria in the early 2000s. Then Nigeria implemented a sweeping set of economic and political changes and began to reform the unreformable. This book tells the story of how a dedicated and politically committed team of reformers set out to fix a series of broken institutions, and in the process repositioned Nigeria's economy in ways that helped create a more diversified springboard for steadier long-term growth. The author, Harvard- and MIT-trained economist Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, currently Nigeria's Coordinating Minister for the Economy and Minister of Finance and formerly Managing Director of the World Bank, played a crucial part in her country's economic reforms. In Nigeria's Debt Management Office, and later as Minister of Finance, she spearheaded negotiations with the Paris Club that led to the wiping out of $30 billion of Nigeria's external debt, 60 percent of which was outright cancellation. Reforming the Unreformable offers an insider's view of those debt negotiations; it also details the fight against corruption and the struggle to implement a series of macroeconomic and structural reforms. This story of development economics in action, written from the front lines of economic reform in Africa, offers a unique perspective on the complex and uncertain global economic environment.

Nigeria is the most dynamic country on the African continent. Yet the legacy of colonialism, deep-rooted corruption, exposure to climate change and the proliferation of small arms have created a precarious security situation that holds back the country's potential for peace and prosperity. Security in Nigeria explores the many security threats facing Nigeria and assesses the government's responses to date. With contributors spanning three continents, it provides an original and comprehensive analysis of 'old' and 'new' security threats and offers original solutions to address the crisis.

Democratic Governance and Political Participation in Nigeria 1999-2014 seeks to critically analyse Nigeria's democratic experience since 1999 when the current Republic was instituted. Given the chequered democratic antecedents of the country, the book examines the factors responsible for the resilience of the present democratic dispensation, in spite of forces inhibiting democratic consolidation. It also examines these inhibiting forces and makes recommendations for overcoming them. Finally, the book seeks to stimulate intellectual discourse on Nigeria's democracy and arouse greater research interests in the subject.