The Rise Of China In Asia Security Implications

In March 2001, the U.S. Army War College, the Triangle Institute for Security Studies, and Duke University

In March 2001, the U.S. Army War College, the Triangle Institute for Security Studies, and Duke University's Program in Asian Security Studies cosponsored a conference in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. The conference examined the security implications of the rise of China for the international community in general and for the United States in particular. This book, which includes an introduction and 12 presentations from the conference, comprises some of the major findings of participants and attendees. Sections of the book address China as a rising power, China as a security threat, the other Asian powers in relation to China, the flashpoints in East and South Asia, and Sino-American relations.

China boasts the oldest continuous civilization in the world and has been a major power for most of its history. Although China suffered a period of decline in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, recent decades have seen a remarkable resurgence of Chinese prosperity and power. Five years ago analysts were confidently predicting that China would be the giant of the new century.1 Today, this is less clear. The first task of the conference was, consequently, to ascertain whether or not it is still appropriate to speak of the rise of China. All agreed that China has made tremendous economic progress since the 1970s when it was one of the world's least developed countries. By the end of the 20th century, it had one of the largest economies in the world (between the seventh and the second largest, depending upon what sources you consult). In terms of population, it clearly ranks among the great powers. In July 2000, its population was estimated at 1,261,8332,482 people. China is also a rising military power, allocating an increasing amount of its budget towards military modernization and placing increasing stress on the use of force. China successfully weathered the economic crisis of 1997-98 and does not appear to be in imminent danger of economic stagnation or decline. The future, however, is less certain. Some conference participants prophesied a continued rise in Chinese economic power, while others anticipated the possibility of a dramatic fall (the most likely date for which would be between 2005 and 2010). In the final analysis, we do not know whether China will rise or fall. We would do well to heed the warnings of Kurt Campbell who stressed the disastrous track record of hegemonic prophecies. Over the course of the last half-century, the Soviet Union (1970s), Japan (1980s), China (late 1990s), and most recently India, were hailed as the up-and-coming economic superpowers. American economic power was widely expected to collapse. All of these predictions proved to be unfounded.

This comprehensive volume fills a gap in the existing literature by focusing on the responses of other East Asian states to China‘s rise, exploring its implications for the region and beyond.

ÔKhoo, Jones, and Smith have pulled off a remarkable balancing act, crafting a well-grounded and multifaceted survey of ChinaÕs rise in the context of Asian security. In a field which is often marked more by scholarly effervescence than substance, the authors provide a refreshingly detailed portrait of the last two decades, and fair-mindedly point out evidence which might support both extremes of the debates they challenge with their own Òthird wayÓ.Õ Ð Frank ÒScottÓ Douglas, US Naval War College, US ÔCongratulations to the authors for a clearly argued and comprehensive treatment of ChinaÕs post Cold War rise and what it means for existing and future dynamics of the Asia-Pacific region. Effectively employing realist theory in a fair-minded treatment of regional developments, the volume shows how and why power realities are more important than non-material factors in determining the regionÕs trajectory and thereby demonstrates that ChinaÕs ascendance in Asia remains complicated and conflicted.Õ Ð Robert Sutter, George Washington University, US East Asia is without question a region of huge economic, political and security significance. Asian Security and the Rise of China offers a comprehensive overview and assessment of the international politics of the Asia-Pacific since the end of the Cold War, seeking to address the overarching question of how we can most convincingly explain the central dynamics of AsiaÕs international relations. Via a realist perspective on the dynamics and frictions associated with accommodating the rise of powerful states, this timely book addresses the core issue in contemporary Asian politics: the rise of China. The contributors expertly evaluate ChinaÕs rise and the impact it has had on the dynamics of regional relations in North East and South East Asia. It demonstrates that ChinaÕs economic development and its regional and international ambition increasingly conflict with the existing consensus-based regional arrangements like the ASEAN Regional Forum and the East Asian Summit mechanism. As a consequence, smaller states in the region increasingly resort to hedging and balancing strategies in an attempt to mitigate Chinese hegemony. This leaves the region in the grip of a complex and potentially destabilizing security dilemma. The book offers a compelling analysis of the problem that China presents for its region that will enlighten undergraduate students of regional political studies and international relations. Postgraduate and MasterÕs students on courses addressing East and South East Asia will also find plenty of information in this invaluable book.

One of the most significant factors for contemporary international relations is the growth of China’s economic, military, and political power. Indeed, few analysts would dispute the observation that China’s power has strongly influenced the structure of the international system, major-power strategic relations, international security, the patterns of trans-border economic activities, and most importantly, the political and security dynamics in Asia in the twenty-first century. This book maps the growth of China’s political, economic, and military capabilities and its impact on the security order in Asia over the coming decades. While updating the emerging power dimensions and prevailing discourse, it provides a nuanced analysis of whether the growth of Chinese power is resulting in Beijing becoming more assertive, or even aggressive, in its behavior and pursuit of national interests. It also examines how the key Asian countries perceive and react to the growth of China’s power and how US rebalancing would play out in the context of Beijing’s political, economic, and military power. China’s Power and Asian Security will be of huge interest to student and scholars of Asian politics, Chinese politics, security studies and international security and international relations more generally.

Since the early 1990s and the end of the Cold War, the implications of China's rising power have come to dominate the security agenda of the Asia-Pacific region. This book is the first to comprehensively chart the development of Southeast Asia’s relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) from 1949 to 2010, detailing each of the eleven countries’ ties to the PRC and showing how strategic concerns associated with China's regional posture have been a significant factor in shaping their foreign and defence policies. In addition to assessing bilateral ties, the book also examines the institutionalization of relations between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China. The first part of the book covers the period 1949-2010: it examines Southeast Asian responses to the PRC in the context of the ideological and geopolitical rivalry of the Cold War; Southeast Asian countries’ policies towards the PRC in first decade of the post-Cold War era; and deepening ties between the ASEAN states and the PRC in the first decade of the twenty-first century. Part Two analyses the evolving relationships between the countries of mainland Southeast Asia - Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia - and China. Part Three reviews ties between the states of maritime Southeast Asia - Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Brunei and East Timor - and the PRC. Whilst the primary focus of the book is the security dimension of Southeast Asia-China relations, it also takes full account of political relations and the burgeoning economic ties between the two sides. This book is a timely contribution to the literature on the fast changing geopolitics of the Asia-Pacific region.