The Spillover Effects Of The Syrian Conflict Economic Impact And Humanitarian Interventions

All roads lead to Damascus and then back out again, but in different directions. The financial and military aid flowing into Syria from patrons and neighbors is intended to determine the outcome of the conflict between a loose confederation of rebel factions and the regime in Damascus. Instead, this outside support has the potential to perpetuate the existing civil war and to ignite larger regional hostilities between Sunni and Shia areas that could reshape the political geography of the Middle East. This report examines the main factors that are likely to contribute to or impede the spread of violence from civil war and insurgency in Syria, and then examines how they apply to Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, and Jordan.

In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.

Five years into the ongoing and tragic conflict, the paper analyzes how Syria’s economy and its people have been affected and outlines the challenges in rebuilding the economy. With extreme limitations on information, the findings of the paper are subject to an extraordinary degree of uncertainty. The key messages are: (1) that the devastating civil war has set the country back decades in terms of economic, social and human development. Syria’s GDP today is less than half of what it was before the war started and it could take two decades or more for Syria to return to its pre-conflict GDP levels; and that (2) while reconstructing damaged physical infrastructure will be a monumental task, rebuilding Syria’s human and social capital will be an even greater and lasting challenge.

This book offers the first book-length explanation of the UN’s politics of selective humanitarian intervention. Over the past 20 years the United Nations has imposed economic sanctions, deployed peacekeeping operations, and even conducted or authorized military intervention in Somalia, Bosnia, or Libya. Yet no such measures were taken in other similar cases such as Colombia, Myanmar, Darfur—or more recently—Syria. What factors account for the UN’s selective response to humanitarian crises and what are the mechanism that drive—or block—UN intervention decisions? By combining fuzzy-set analysis of the UN’s response to more than 30 humanitarian crises with in depth-case study analysis of UN (in)action in Bosnia and Darfur, as well as in the most recent crises in Côte d’Ivoire, Libya and Syria, this volume seeks to answer these questions.

This edited volume investigates the political and socioeconomic impact of the Syrian refugee crisis on Lebanon and Jordan, and these countries’ mechanisms to cope with the rapid influx of refugees. The sudden population increase has resulted in severe pressures on infrastructures and services, as well as growing social tensions between the refugees and host communities. These chapters use a transdisciplinary approach to analyse the repercussions of the humanitarian tragedy at three different levels: 1) the changing governmental policies of the two countries towards the crisis; 2) the different perceptions of the Jordanian and Lebanese local communities on the Syrian refugees; and 3) the role played by NGOs and the civil society in both countries in dealing with protracted humanitarian emergencies.

A unique collaboration providing an analysis of the conflict in Syria, focusing on the integration between legal and political studies.

This book examines the unfolding of the Syrian refugee crisis in relation to the spillover of the Syrian civil war in Lebanon and against the background of Lebanon–Syria relations and Lebanon’s socio-political, cultural, legal, and economic conditions. It surveys Lebanon’s response plans to the refugee crisis as part of the development of the international response plans to address the protection and needs of the Syrian refugees and Palestinian refugees from Syria, as well as the impacted host communities and institutions. At the same time, this book emphasizes the dramatic shift in popular and institutional attitudes towards the refugees as a response to and as a growth of the sheer magnitude of the refugee crisis, which made Lebanon the only country in modern history with the highest per capita concentration of refugees in the world. By examining these attitudes against the background of achievements and failures of the response plans, the impact of the crisis on state institutions on the local and national levels, and the collective consciousness of a nation barely surviving the scars of its civil war, this book not only underscores the deepening tragedy of Syrian and Palestinian refugees in Lebanon, but also the consequential tragedy of many Lebanese, who have been forced into poverty and whose livelihoods have been affected by insecurity and the almost complete collapse of social services. As a result, the tragedy of the Syrian refugee crisis has become an international crisis affecting vulnerable persons across nationalities, and, unless it is addressed diplomatically and its response plans sufficiently funded, the tragedy will only deepen across continents.