Theoretical And Policy Oriented Aspects Of The External Debt Economics

The past approach to the international debt crisis has been traditionally based on conventional banking principle in which debt had to be paid back in fuH and in time. International lending was a function of the perceived credit standing of debtor country and the return on investment (ROI). If debtor country run into difficulties and had problems with service payments - it was generally assumed that the debt-related expenditures were mismanaged. With economic stability and firm financial rules - the debt crisis was supposed to disappear after application of appropriate adjustment measures. However in the world of inconsistent lending criteria greater uncertainty and increased volatility of expectations - the problem has continued to get worse. At the beginning of the 1990s a number of countries are more indebted than at any other time in the past. Until mid 1980s extern al debt economics has been rather a disembodied concept for most economists and business leaders. The main reason for this neglect of one of the most important macroeconomic categories was difficulty of distinguishing terminologically and methodologically the domestic determinants of national expenditures from the external ones. Then there were conceptual problems in distinguishing the functional determinants of macroeconomic liquidity from external and domestic determinants of macro-economic solvency. Moreover many studies of the debt crisis were one-sided. Usually debt was seen as a 'white-black' phenomenon with debtor countries accusing creditor countries for causing the crisis and vice versa.

This Guide provides clear, up-to-date guidance on the concepts, definitions, and classifications of the gross external debt of the public and private sectors, and on the sources, compilation techniques, and analytical uses of these data. The Guide supersedes the previous international guidance on external debt statistics available in External Debt: Definition, Statistical Coverage, and Methodology (known as the Gray Book), 1988. The Guides conceptual framework derives from the System of National Accounts 1993 and the fifth edition of the IMFs Balance of Payments Manual(1993). Preparation of the Guide was undertaken by an Inter-Agency Task Force on Finance Statistics, chaired by the IMF and involving representatives from the BIS, the Commonwealth Secretariat, the European Central Bank, Eurostat, the OECD, the Paris Club Secretariat, UNCTAD, and the World Bank.

The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

European central bank policy is already taking place today in an informal way. It comprises, in short, European exchange rate management and interest rate policy decisions within and without the European Monetary System (EMS). A focal point of such policy actions are the money market operating targets of European Central Banks. Those central bank policies appear to be dominated, however, by the Deutsche Bundesbank. This has caused recurring critical discussion of European asymmetries and German leadership in monetary stabilization pOlicies, before and after the EMS turbulences of September 1992. However, it should be pointed out that German dominance has increasingly evolved in a cooperative way, ever since the Committee of European Central Bank Governors began to meet regularly in 1964; the Basle-Nyborg accord of 1987 formed a further stage of cooperative efforts within the EMS. Presently, a small group of countries (including Benelux and Austria) generally follows, after prior 'concertation', German monetary policy patterns. In this narrow sense, there exists a European central bank policy within a "Deutsche-Mark-Zone". In a broader sense, European central bank policy is shaped, after proper consultation, by monetary cooperation between the larger EMS countries, but once again dominantly influenced by Germany; recent problems of highjnterest rates in France and elsewhere due to (relative) restrictive German monetary pOlicies are striking examples. German monetary dominance, in the narrow or broad sense, obviously creates, in the long-run, an untenable situation in the eyes of European partner countries.

This volume discusses some economic aspects of immigration with special refer ence to the case of Germany. Immigration has become a major issue in Germany. Germany still does not have an official immigration policy in spite of the fact that more than 8 percent of the residents are non-citizens and that Germany · s immigration figures almost have reached the US figures. The foreign Iabor supply strongly influences the German Iabor market. The bulk of foreign workers is employed in certain industries. In some industries (mining, steel) 20 and more percent of the employees are foreign workers. Most foreign workers are blue collar workers with low wages. The Iabor demand for immigrants has declined in the last 15 years while the foreign population and Iabor supply has increased. As a consequence, foreigners experience higher unemployment rates than Germans. The fall of the Berlin wall and the collapse of the communist regimes in East Europe further increased the blue collar Iabor supply and strengthened the competition for foreign workers on the German Iabor market.

Two areas have fascinated me for a long time. One is the micro economic theory of consumer behavior, the other one the role of space in economic processes. Usually, the two don't go together very well. In more advanced versions of microeconomic consumer theory its economic actor may face uncertainty, have to allocate resources over time, or have to take into ac count the characteristics of products, but rarely deals with space. He/she inhabits a spaceless point economy. Regional Science, on the other hand, describes and analyzes the spatial structure and development of the econ omy, but either ignores individual decision making altogether or treats it in a rather simplistic way. In this book I try to bring together these two areas of interest of mine. I do this by use of the microeconomic concept of search and placing it in an explicit spatial context. The result, in my opinion, is a theoretical concept with fascinating implications, a broad set of potential implications, and numerous interesting research questions. After reading this book, where I layout the basic idea of spatial search, describe its elements, and discuss some of its implications, I hope the reader will share this opinion. There are still plenty of unanswered research questions in this part of economic theory. Hopefully, this book will stimulate more work along these lines.

The book is concerned with the main issues that arise for general commodity taxation in the internal market: the choice of a new international tax principle and the question of tax rate harmonization. The book provides a thorough discussion of these issues and evaluates the choices made by the European Community from a welfare-theoretic perspective by comparing them to feasible alternatives. The discussion integrates a large number of recent theoretical and policy-oriented contributions which have so far not been collected and summarized in a single volume. Special features of the book are that (a) the analysis combines elements of international trade theory and public finance, two economic disciplines which are rarely integrated; (b) a dual general equilibrium framework is used throughout the analysis, (c) a second-best setting is consistently employed, incorporating relevant policy constraints and integrating conflicting arguments in a single analytical framework, (d) part of the theoretical analysis is supplemented by a computable general equilibrium approach. The book shows that well-known international trademodels can be extended to model alternative principles for taxing international trade but also international differences in preferences for public goods and different views of government behavior - issues which are directly relevant for the discussion of tax rateharmonization but are rarely treated in an analytical way.

A macroeconomic disequilibrium model is developed for the Federal Republic of Germany. Starting with a microeconomic model of firm's behaviour, the optimal dynamic adjustment of employment and investment is derived. The model of the firm is complemented by an explicite aggregation procedure which allows to derive macroeconomic relations. The model is estimated with macroeconomic data for the Federal Republic of Germany. An important feature is the consistent introduction of dynamic adjustment into a model of the firm. A new method is the particular approach of a delayed adjustment of employment and investment. The estimation results show significant underutilizations of labour and capital and indicate the importance of supply constraints for imports and exports. As the most prominent result, they reveal the importance of the slow adjustment of employment and investment for the macroeconomic situation in Germany and especially for the persistence of high unemployment in the eighties.