Three Cycles

We examine the characteristics and comovement of cycles in house prices, credit, real activity and interest rates in advanced economies during the past 25 years, using a dynamic generalized factor model. House price cycles generally lead credit and business cycles over the long term, while in the short to medium term the relationship varies across countries. Interest rates tend to lag other cycles at all time horizons. While global factors are important, the U.S. business cycle, house price cycle and interest rate cycle generally lead the respective cycles in other countries over all time horizons, while the U.S. credit cycle leads mainly over the long term.

Heaven, Earth, and Humankind, Volumes I through IV was inspired by a dream in which I witnessed the collision of two worlds, one red and one green, the red cube was the dragon of Chinese Medical Philosophy, the green globe was the holistic cosmos that I already knew well through tropical astrology. The outcome of this dream was this book that integrates the two systems, and illuminates the core they share. Behind every aspect of human experience we find the influence of light and darkness both as a reality and metaphor. Three great cycles of light and darkness govern experience: the seasonal cycle, the waxing and waning of the moon, and the emergence and retreat of daylight. These three cycles connect directly to the triune principle in Chinese philosophy that differentiates three aspects of human endeavor: spirit, body, and social life. Heaven and earth seem to form a polarity. When they interact, they produce all the multifarious form of life near the surface of the earth. The whole ever remains a unity. Heaven floods the earth with both solar and celestial energy. The earth responds to that influx by producing living forms on its surface. The horizon line of the celestial chart symbolizes this plane where energy and matter interact. From this we can assess where a persons focus is and how they balance the three different aspects of human experience. Human beings are thefinest expression of heaven and earth, if and only if we harmonize with the great cycles of light. In Volume IV I connect this core wisdom from Chinese sages with the astrological idea of the three modes of tropical astrology This volume continues the holistic and cyclic approach to astrology developed in the previous three volumes and culminates in a detailed description of the effect of the Sun, Moon, or Horizon in each zodiac sign. Each sign has a mode and the mode has affinity either with heaven and the sun, earth and the moon, or the ascendant and human affairs. The mutable signs are aligned with the sphere of the ecliptic and the mutable mode. Heaven, Earth, and Humankind maps a path to understanding why astrology works in terms that anyone can understand. The operative power of astrology is the three light cycles as all the ancients understood. We have lost the wisdom, but that lost wisdom is recovered somewhat in this valuable book. How is our human experience connected to the greater life of the cosmos?Our answer depends on our degree of self-realization, and we cannot truly know ourselves unless we understand how we feel and react to the cycles of heaven. This book brings some traditional wisdom into focus to help us with these fundamental questions about how to live well.

NACTO's Urban Bikeway Design Guide quickly emerged as the preeminent resource for designing safe, protected bikeways in cities across the United States. It has been completely re-designed with an even more accessible layout. The Guide offers updated graphic profiles for all of its bicycle facilities, a subsection on bicycle boulevard planning and design, and a survey of materials used for green color in bikeways. The Guide continues to build upon the fast-changing state of the practice at the local level. It responds to and accelerates innovative street design and practice around the nation.

Victor Zarnowitz has long been a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting. These papers represent a carefully integrated and up-to-date study of business cycles, reexamining some of his earlier research as well as addressing recent developments in the literature and in history. In part one, Zarnowitz reviews with characteristic insight various theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories as well as more recent rational expectations and real business cycle theories. In doing so, he examines how the business cycle may have changed as the size of government, the exercise of fiscal and monetary policies, the openness of the economy to international forces, and the industrial structure have evolved over time. Emphasizing important research from the 1980s, Zarnowitz discusses in part two various measures of the trends and cycles in economic activity, including output, prices, inventories, investment in residential and nonresidential structures, equipment, and other economic variables. Here the author explores the duration and severity of U.S. business cycles over more than 150 years, and evaluates the ability of macro models to simulate past behavior of the economy. In part three the performance of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators is described and assessed and evidence is presented on the value of their composite measures. Finally, part four offers an analysis of the degree of success of large commercial forecasting firms and of many individual economists in predicting the course of inflation, real growth, unemployment, interest rates, and other key economic variables. Business Cycles is a timely study, certain tobecome a basic reference for professional forecasters and economists in government, academia, and the business community.

Experts define, review, and evaluate economic fluctuations Economic and business uncertainty dominate today's economic analyses. This new Encyclopedia illuminates the subject by offering 323 original articles on every major aspect of business cycles, fluctuations, financial crises, recessions, and depressions. The work of more than 200 experts, including many of the leading researchers in the field, the articles cover a broad range of subjects, including capsule biographies of leading economists born before 1920. Individual entries explore banking panics, the cobweb cycle, consumer durables, the depression of 1937-1938, Otto Eckstein, Friedrich Engels, experimental price bubbles, forced savings, lass-Steagall Act, Friedrich hagen, qualitative indicators, use of macro-econometric models, monetary neutrality, Phillips Curve, Paul Samuelson, Say's law, supply-side recessions, James Tokin, trend and random wages, Thorstein Veblen, worker-job turnover, and more.

Lithuania’s current credit cycle highlights the strong link between housing prices and credit. We explore this relationship in more detail by analyzing the main features of credit, housing price, and output cycles in Baltic and Nordic countries during1995-2017. We find a high degree of synchronization between Lithuania’s credit and housing price cycles. Panel regressions show a strong correlation between a credit upturn and housing price upturn. Moreover, panel VAR suggests that shocks in housing prices, credit, and output within and outside Lithuania strongly impact Lithuania’s credit.

Edward R. Dewey, as chief economist in the Hoover Administration, was tasked by President Hoover to figure out what caused the 1929 stock market crash and ensuing depression. In the course of his extensive investigations, he became convinced that something important was missing from our collective knowledge of how economies and societies work—a working knowledge of cycles. He was joined in his quest to establish a “science of cycles” by other leaders of his time, including Ivy League scientists, Smithsonian Directors, Industrial CEOs, Ambassadors, and political leaders. First published in 1971, Cycles: The Mysterious Forces that Trigger Events was Dewey’s answer to President Hoover’s question and to many more questions which had arisen from his decades of research. Are there cycles in nature? In war? On Wall Street? In the universe? In you? Are cycles across different phenomena aligned with each other? Find out in this compelling book! You can also learn more about how Dewey’s work continues today at cycles.org.