Time Series In High Dimension The General Dynamic Factor Model

Factor models have become the most successful tool in the analysis and forecasting of high-dimensional time series. This monograph provides an extensive account of the so-called General Dynamic Factor Model methods. The topics covered include: asymptotic representation problems, estimation, forecasting, identification of the number of factors, identification of structural shocks, volatility analysis, and applications to macroeconomic and financial data.

This textbook provides a self-contained presentation of the theory and models of time series analysis. Putting an emphasis on weakly stationary processes and linear dynamic models, it describes the basic concepts, ideas, methods and results in a mathematically well-founded form and includes numerous examples and exercises. The first part presents the theory of weakly stationary processes in time and frequency domain, including prediction and filtering. The second part deals with multivariate AR, ARMA and state space models, which are the most important model classes for stationary processes, and addresses the structure of AR, ARMA and state space systems, Yule-Walker equations, factorization of rational spectral densities and Kalman filtering. Finally, there is a discussion of Granger causality, linear dynamic factor models and (G)ARCH models. The book provides a solid basis for advanced mathematics students and researchers in fields such as data-driven modeling, forecasting and filtering, which are important in statistics, control engineering, financial mathematics, econometrics and signal processing, among other subjects.

This comprehensive Handbook presents the current state of art in the theory and methodology of macroeconomic data analysis. It is intended as a reference for graduate students and researchers interested in exploring new methodologies, but can also be employed as a graduate text. The Handbook concentrates on the most important issues, models and techniques for research in macroeconomics, and highlights the core methodologies and their empirical application in an accessible manner. Each chapter is largely self-contained, whilst the comprehensive introduction provides an overview of the key statistical concepts and methods. All of the chapters include the essential references for each topic and provide a sound guide for further reading. Topics covered include unit roots, non-linearities and structural breaks, time aggregation, forecasting, the Kalman filter, generalised method of moments, maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation, vector autoregressive, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium and dynamic panel models. Presenting the most important models and techniques for empirical research, this Handbook will appeal to students, researchers and academics working in empirical macro and econometrics.

This book gives a brief survey of the theory of multidimensional (multivariate), weakly stationary time series, with emphasis on dimension reduction and prediction. Understanding the covered material requires a certain mathematical maturity, a degree of knowledge in probability theory, linear algebra, and also in real, complex and functional analysis. For this, the cited literature and the Appendix contain all necessary material. The main tools of the book include harmonic analysis, some abstract algebra, and state space methods: linear time-invariant filters, factorization of rational spectral densities, and methods that reduce the rank of the spectral density matrix. Serves to find analogies between classical results (Cramer, Wold, Kolmogorov, Wiener, Kálmán, Rozanov) and up-to-date methods for dimension reduction in multidimensional time series Provides a unified treatment for time and frequency domain inferences by using machinery of complex and harmonic analysis, spectral and Smith--McMillan decompositions. Establishes analogies between the time and frequency domain notions and calculations Discusses the Wold's decomposition and the Kolmogorov's classification together, by distinguishing between different types of singularities. Understanding the remote past helps us to characterize the ideal situation where there is a regular part at present. Examples and constructions are also given Establishes a common outline structure for the state space models, prediction, and innovation algorithms with unified notions and principles, which is applicable to real-life high frequency time series It is an ideal companion for graduate students studying the theory of multivariate time series and researchers working in this field.

Focusing on Bayesian approaches and computations using simulation-based methods for inference, Time Series: Modeling, Computation, and Inference integrates mainstream approaches for time series modeling with significant recent developments in methodology and applications of time series analysis. It encompasses a graduate-level account of Bayesian t

The chapters in this volume stress the need for advances in theoretical understanding to go hand-in-hand with the widespread practical application of forecasting in industry. Forecasting and time series prediction have enjoyed considerable attention over the last few decades, fostered by impressive advances in observational capabilities and measurement procedures. On June 5-7, 2013, an international Workshop on Industry Practices for Forecasting was held in Paris, France, organized and supported by the OSIRIS Department of Electricité de France Research and Development Division. In keeping with tradition, both theoretical statistical results and practical contributions on this active field of statistical research and on forecasting issues in a rapidly evolving industrial environment are presented. The volume reflects the broad spectrum of the conference, including 16 articles contributed by specialists in various areas. The material compiled is broad in scope and ranges from new findings on forecasting in industry and in time series, on nonparametric and functional methods and on on-line machine learning for forecasting, to the latest developments in tools for high dimension and complex data analysis.

Factor models can cope with many variables without running into scarce degrees of freedom.

This handbook provides an up-to-date survey of current research topics and applications of time series analysis methods written by leading experts in their fields. It covers recent developments in univariate as well as bivariate and multivariate time series analysis techniques ranging from physics' to life sciences' applications. Each chapter comprises both methodological aspects and applications to real world complex systems, such as the human brain or Earth's climate. Covering an exceptionally broad spectrum of topics, beginners, experts and practitioners who seek to understand the latest developments will profit from this handbook.