Toward A Comprehensive Tax Reform For Italy

This paper evaluates elements of a comprehensive reform of the Italian tax system. Reform options are guided by the principles of reducing complexity, broadening the tax base, and lowering marginal tax rates, especially the tax burden on labor income. The revenue and distributional implications of personal income and property tax reforms are assessed with EUROMOD, while a microsimulation model is developed to evaluate VAT reform options. Simulations suggest that a substantial reduction in the tax burden on labor income can be obtained with a revenue-neutral base-broadening reform that streamlines tax expenditures and updates the property valuation system. In addition, a comprehensive reform would benefit low- and middle-income households the most, by lowering significantly their overall current tax liability, which results in increased progressivity of the tax system.

Published in late 2017, the Italian medium-term fiscal plan aims to achieve structural balance by 2020, although concrete, high-quality measures to meet the target are yet to be specified. This paper seeks to contribute to the discussion by (i) assessing spending patterns to identify areas for savings; (ii) evaluating the pension system; (iii) analyzing the scope for revenue rebalancing; and (iv) putting forward a package of spending cuts and tax rebalancing that is growth friendly and inclusive, could have limited near-term output costs, and would achieve a notable reduction in public debt over the medium term. Such a package could help the authorities balance the need to bring down public debt and, thus, reduce vulnerabilities while supporting the economic recovery.

Italy’s economy is recovering steadily from the COVID crisis, thanks to the vaccination campaign and generous fiscal support to households and firms. Risks to the outlook are large, including virus variants and the path of global interest rates.

The recovery of private investment in Italy has lagged its euro area peers over the past decade. This paper examines the role of elevated labor costs in hindering the recovery. Specifically, labor costs rose faster than labor productivity prior to the global financial crisis and have remained high since, weighing on firms’ profits, capital returns, and thus capacity to invest. Empirical analysis provides evidence for the impact of wages on investment at the sectoral and firm levels. Sectoral wage growth seems unrelated to sectoral productivity growth, but is negatively associated with investment. Firm-level data permit a better identification—by exploiting the interaction between sectoral wage growth (exogenous to the firm) and the lagged labor share of the firm. A 1 percent increase in real wages is estimated to cause a 1/3 percent fall in fixed capital. Profits absorb only 1⁄2 of the cost increase, pointing to the role of liquidity constraints. These results highlight the need for labor market reform to reinvigorate investment, and thus labor productivity and job creation.

This 2020 Article IV Consultation with Italy reflects discussions with the Italian authorities in January 2020 and is based on the information available as of January 28, 2020. It focuses on Italy’s medium-term challenges and policy priorities and was prepared prior to the outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy. It, therefore, does not cover the outbreak or the related policy response, which has since become the overarching near-term priority. The outbreak has greatly amplified uncertainty and downside risks around the outlook. Staff is closely monitoring this health crisis and will continue to work on assessing its impact and the related policy response in Italy and globally. The overarching challenges are to raise growth and enhance resilience. The IMF staff projects growth in Italy to be the lowest in the European Union over the next five years. High public debt remains a key source of vulnerability. Substantial progress has been made in strengthening bank balance sheets, but important weaknesses remain. In order to durably raise growth and reduce vulnerabilities, Italy needs faster potential growth and medium-term fiscal consolidation.

This paper reviews capital taxation issues in Italy based on a comprehensive definition encompassing taxes on income, transactions, and ownership. It discusses options to enhance the neutrality of the capital income tax system, followed by a detailed analysis of the property tax, the inheritance tax, and various transaction taxes. The paper also examines the case for replacing the set of existing taxes on financial and real assets with a single net wealth tax.

This 2002 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic slowdown in Italy in 2001 has been followed by only a modest resumption of growth in the first half of 2002. As weaker external demand spilled over into domestic demand, economic growth stagnated in the last three quarters of 2001. GDP growth turned marginally positive in the first half of 2002, although final domestic demand remained weak, as did industrial production, notwithstanding a rebound in business confidence from its 2001 trough. Equity prices have fallen by more than 20 percent from end-2001 to mid-October 2002.

The IMF has advised country authorities to roll back tax expenditures as a way to support fiscal consolidation efforts—urging them to evaluate tax expenditures according to clear criteria, and assessing their impact on public finances, economic efficiency, equity, and administrative and compliance costs. This paper analyzes tax expenditures in Italy, considering the extent to which tax expenditures can be considered part of an optimal tax system and possible reforms.