Trade Interdependence And Security

Does growing economic interdependence among great powers increase or decrease the chance of conflict and war? Liberals argue that the benefits of trade give states an incentive to stay peaceful. Realists contend that trade compels states to struggle for vital raw materials and markets. Moving beyond the stale liberal-realist debate, Economic Interdependence and War lays out a dynamic theory of expectations that shows under what specific conditions interstate commerce will reduce or heighten the risk of conflict between nations. Taking a broad look at cases spanning two centuries, from the Napoleonic and Crimean wars to the more recent Cold War crises, Dale Copeland demonstrates that when leaders have positive expectations of the future trade environment, they want to remain at peace in order to secure the economic benefits that enhance long-term power. When, however, these expectations turn negative, leaders are likely to fear a loss of access to raw materials and markets, giving them more incentive to initiate crises to protect their commercial interests. The theory of trade expectations holds important implications for the understanding of Sino-American relations since 1985 and for the direction these relations will likely take over the next two decades. Economic Interdependence and War offers sweeping new insights into historical and contemporary global politics and the actual nature of democratic versus economic peace.

Does growing economic interdependence among great powers increase or decrease the chance of conflict and war? Liberals argue that the benefits of trade give states an incentive to stay peaceful. Realists contend that trade compels states to struggle for vital raw materials and markets. Moving beyond the stale liberal-realist debate, Economic Interdependence and War lays out a dynamic theory of expectations that shows under what specific conditions interstate commerce will reduce or heighten the risk of conflict between nations.Taking a broad look at cases spanning two centuries, from the Napoleonic and Crimean wars to the more recent Cold War crises, Dale Copeland demonstrates that when leaders have positive expectations of the future trade environment, they want to remain at peace in order to secure the economic benefits that enhance long-term power. When, however, these expectations turn negative, leaders are likely to fear a loss of access to raw materials and markets, giving them more incentive to initiate crises to protect their commercial interests. The theory of trade expectations holds important implications for the understanding of Sino-American relations since 1985 and for the direction these relations will likely take over the next two decades.Economic Interdependence and War offers sweeping new insights into historical and contemporary global politics and the actual nature of democratic versus economic peace.

In den letzten Jahren hat die Rivalität zwischen den USA und China zugenommen und ein Konflikt um die globale politische Vorherrschaft zeichnet sich ab. Aufgrund der starken ökonomischen Vernetzung der beiden Staaten hätte ein offen geführter Konflikt jedoch hohe wirtschaftliche Verluste für beide Seiten zur Folge. Vor diesem Hintergrund untersucht das Buch wie hoch die Anreize für beide Seiten sind, aufgrund wirtschaftlicher Überlegungen einen Konflikt zu vermeiden und auch zukünftig auf Kooperation zu setzen.

'A compelling contribution to our evolving understanding of the links between trade, aid and security and what the international community needs to do to ensure peace and development in the world.' Achim Steiner, Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme 'For far too long the international community ahs stood by while countries around the world descend into conflict and anarchy. We need to understand how we can engage more effectively with fragile and failing states. Trade, Aid and Security is an important step in this direction.' Jan Pronk, Special Representative of the UN General Secretary in Sudan and Former Minister of Development and the Environment, The Netherlands. 'As we begin to contemplate what the post-Iraq world will look like it is vital that we reflect on the limits of the utility of hard power and the importance that development can play in avoiding failed states before they fail, preventing conflicts and more successfully re-building states. This timely book makes a most important contribution to that process.' Lord Paddy Ashdown, UN High Representative for Boznia and Herzegovina, 2002 2006 Leader of UK Liberal Democrat Party, 1988 1999 'As UN Special Representative to the Great Lakes Region of Africa I have seen the devastating impact of the trade in conflict resources with my own eyes. Amongst much else, this book shows how different trade and aid politics can tackle the trade in conflict resources and make a real contribution to secure societies. It is essential reading.' Mohamed Sahnoun, Special Representative of the UN Secretary General in Central and East Africa. Iraq, Afghanistan, Darfur. All resonate loudly on the international stage, exposing and illustrating the intractable links between global security, control over naturals resources be it oil, water, timber or 'conflict diamonds' and the manipulation of foreign aid and international trade policy. This volume, written by leading authorities from across the globe, introduces the linkages between trade, aid and security, and exposes how inappropriate or misused trade and aid policy can and do undermine security and contribute to violence and the disintegration of national states. On a practical level they demonstrate how six key areas of trade and aid policy can be used to help forge stability and security, reduce the likelihood of armed conflict, and assist economic and political recovery in our war-torn world.

The claim that open trade promotes peace has sparked heated debate among scholars and policymakers for centuries. Until recently, however, this claim remained untested and largely unexplored. Economic Interdependence and International Conflict clarifies the state of current knowledge about the effects of foreign commerce on political-military relations and identifies the avenues of new research needed to improve our understanding of this relationship. The contributions to this volume offer crucial insights into the political economy of national security, the causes of war, and the politics of global economic relations. Edward D. Mansfield is Hum Rosen Professor of Political Science and Co-Director of the Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics at the University of Pennsylvania. Brian M. Pollins is Associate Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University and a Research Fellow at the Mershon Center.

With the rise of China, Japan and many East Asian countries are caught between maximizing profit from economic ties with her, and strengthening alliances with the United States to prevent China from overpowering them. Liberals and realists thus debate over the likelihood of either security tensions easing up or economic interdependence getting reduced eventually. On the other hand, Iida introduces a new theory that reinterprets the relationship between state security and economic interdependence among countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Based on case studies of recent episodes in East Asia, and especially on the experiences of Japan, this book highlights an interesting dynamic between security and economic interdependence: risk avoidance. By understanding how risk avoidance affects the behavior of these countries in terms of security and economics, it becomes evident how they eventually settle into what Iida calls "Cool Politics" and "Lukewarm Economics".