Truth Possibility And Probability

Anyone involved in the philosophy of science is naturally drawn into the study of the foundations of probability. Different interpretations of probability, based on competing philosophical ideas, lead to different statistical techniques, and frequently to mutually contradictory consequences. This unique book presents a new interpretation of probability, rooted in the traditional interpretation that was current in the 17th and 18th centuries. Mathematical models are constructed based on this interpretation, and statistical inference and decision theory are applied, including some examples in artificial intelligence, solving the main foundational problems. Nonstandard analysis is extensively developed for the construction of the models and in some of the proofs. Many nonstandard theorems are proved, some of them new, in particular, a representation theorem that asserts that any stochastic process can be approximated by a process defined over a space with equiprobable outcomes.

Classic work by one of the most brilliant figures in post-war analytic philosophy.

Does God exist? This is probably the most debated question in the history of mankind. Scholars, scientists, and philosophers have spent their lifetimes trying to prove or disprove the existence of God, only to have their theories crucified by other scholars, scientists, and philosophers. Where the debate breaks down is in the ambiguities and colloquialisms of language. But, by using a universal, unambiguous language—namely, mathematics—can this question finally be answered definitively? That’s what Dr. Stephen Unwin attempts to do in this riveting, accessible, and witty book, The Probability of God. At its core, this groundbreaking book reveals how a math equation developed more than 200 years ago by noted European philosopher Thomas Bayes can be used to calculate the probability that God exists. The equation itself is much more complicated than a simple coin toss (heads, He’s up there running the show; tails, He’s not). Yet Dr. Unwin writes with a clarity that makes his mathematical proof easy for even the nonmathematician to understand and a verve that makes his book a delight to read. Leading you carefully through each step in his argument, he demonstrates in the end that God does indeed exist. Whether you’re a devout believer and agree with Dr. Unwin’s proof or are unsure about all things divine, you will find this provocative book enlightening and engaging. “One of the most innovative works [in the science and religion movement] is The Probability of God...An entertaining exercise in thinking.”—Michael Shermer, Scientific American “Unwin’s book [is] peppered with wry, self-deprecating humor that makes the scientific discussions more accessible...Spiritually inspiring.”--Chicago Sun Times “A pleasantly breezy account of some complicated matters well worth learning about.”--Philadelphia Inquirer “One of the best things about the book is its humor.”--Cleveland Plain Dealer “In a book that is surprisingly lighthearted and funny, Unwin manages to pack in a lot of facts about science and philosophy.”--Salt Lake Tribune

Written by one of the top most statisticians with experience in diverse fields of applications of statistics, the book deals with the philosophical and methodological aspects of information technology, collection and analysis of data to provide insight into a problem, whether it is scientific research, policy making by government or decision making in our daily lives.The author dispels the doubts that chance is an expression of our ignorance which makes accurate prediction impossible and illustrates how our thinking has changed with quantification of uncertainty by showing that chance is no longer the obstructor but a way of expressing our knowledge. Indeed, chance can create and help in the investigation of truth. It is eloquently demonstrated with numerous examples of applications that statistics is the science, technology and art of extracting information from data and is based on a study of the laws of chance. It is highlighted how statistical ideas played a vital role in scientific and other investigations even before statistics was recognized as a separate discipline and how statistics is now evolving as a versatile, powerful and inevitable tool in diverse fields of human endeavor such as literature, legal matters, industry, archaeology and medicine.Use of statistics to the layman in improving the quality of life through wise decision making is emphasized.

A Chance for Possibility defends the view that the objective modal realm is tripartite: truths about possible worlds supervene on modal truths, which in turn supervene on truths about objective chances. An understanding of supervenience in terms of grounding is developed which — unlike the standard modal characterization — allows the question of what modal truths supervene on to have a non-trivial answer. Relying on this understanding, a negative result is established: modal truths do not supervene on truths about possible worlds, whether possible worlds are conceived of as Lewisian concreta or as abstract objects of some kind. Instead, a conception of pleonastic possible worlds is developed that reverses the direction of supervenience. On the basis of linguistic considerations concerning our use of natural language ‘might’ and ‘might have’ sentences, Steinberg finally argues that truths about objective chances are able to provide a supervenience base for modal truths. A Chance for Possibility is an investigation in analytic metaphysics, drawing on related work in the philosophy of logic and language as well as linguistics. It provides a detailed case study for the fruitful use of a notion of grounding in the clarification and evaluation of longstanding philosophical issues.

In this sixth book of scilogs collected from my nest of ideas, one may find new and old questions and solutions, – in email messages to research colleagues, or replies, and personal notes handwritten on the planes to, and from international conferences, about all kind of topics, centered mostly on Neutrosophy. Special thanks to all my peer colleagues comprised in this booklet for exciting and pertinent instances of discussing (alphabetically ordered): A.A.A. Agboola, Muhamed Akram, Mohamed Abdel-Basset, Slim Belhaiza, Hashem Bordbar, Sisalah Bouzina, Said Broumi, Kajal Chatterjee, Emenia Cera, Vic Christianto, Mihaela Colhon, B. Davvaz, Luu Quoc Dat, Harish Garg, Muhammad Gulistan, A. Hassan, Nasruddin Hassan, Faruk Karaaslan, Vali Ichim, Raul Iordăchiță, Tèmítópé Gbóláhàn Jaíyéolá, Young Bae Jun, Ilanthenral Kandasamy, W. B. Vasantha Kandasamy, S. Khalil, Chang Su Kim, J. Kim, Hur Kul, J. G. Lee, Xinliang Liang, P. K. Lim, Peide Liu, Pabitra Kumar Maji, M. A. Malik, John Mordeson, Mumtaz Ali, Nirmal Nital, Ion Pătrașcu, Surapati Pramanik, Majdoleen Abu-Qamar, Nouran Radwan, Abdolreza Rashno, Elemer Elad Rosinger, Arsham Borumand Saeid, A. A. Salama, Ganeshsree Selvachandran, P. K. Singh, Le Hoang Son, Seok-Zun Song, Nguyễn Xuân Thảo, Gabriela Tonț, Ștefan Vlăduțescu, Jun Ye, Xiaohong Zhang.

This book provides a systematic, self-sufficient and yet short presentation of the mainstream topics on introductory Probability Theory with some selected topics from Mathematical Statistics. It is suitable for a 10- to 14-week course for second- or third-year undergraduate students in Science, Mathematics, Statistics, Finance, or Economics, who have completed some introductory course in Calculus. There is a sufficient number of problems and solutions to cover weekly tutorials.

This work presents the basic concepts of probability to philosophy students who are new to this area of the subject.