Uncertainty Analyses In Environmental Sciences And Hydrogeology

This book highlights several methods and quantitative implementations of both probabilistic and fuzzy-based approaches to uncertainty quantification and uncertainty propagation through environmental subsurface pollution models with uncertain input parameters. The book focuses on methods as well as applications in hydrogeology, soil hydrology, groundwater contamination, and related areas (e.g., corrosion of nuclear waste canisters). The methods are illustrated for a broad spectrum of models, from non-differential I/O models to complex PDE solvers, including a novel 3D quasi-analytical model of contaminant transport, and a site-specific computer model of dissolved contaminant migration from a DNAPL (Dense Non Aqueous Phase Liquid) pollution source.

Uncertainty in the predictions of science when applied to the environment is an issue of great current relevance in relation to the impacts of climate change, protecting against natural and man-made disasters, pollutant transport and sustainable resource management. However, it is often ignored both by scientists and decision makers, or interpreted as a conflict or disagreement between scientists. This is not necessarily the case, the scientists might well agree, but their predictions would still be uncertain and knowledge of that uncertainty might be important in decision making. Environmental Modelling: An Uncertain Future? introduces students, scientists and decision makers to: the different concepts and techniques of uncertainty estimation in environmental prediction the philosophical background to different concepts of uncertainty the constraint of uncertainties by the collection of observations and data assimilation in real-time forecasting techniques for decision making under uncertainty. This book will be relevant to environmental modellers, practitioners and decision makers in hydrology, hydraulics, ecology, meteorology and oceanography, geomorphology, geochemistry, soil science, pollutant transport and climate change. A companion website for the book can be found at www.uncertain-future.org.uk

International experts from around the globe present a rich variety of intriguing developments in time series analysis in hydrology and environmental engineering. Climatic change is of great concern to everyone and significant contributions to this challenging research topic are put forward by internationally renowned authors. A range of interesting applications in hydrological forecasting are given for case studies in reservoir operation in North America, Asia and South America. Additionally, progress in entropy research is described and entropy concepts are applied to various water resource systems problems. Neural networks are employed for forecasting runoff and water demand. Moreover, graphical, nonparametric and parametric trend analyses methods are compared and applied to water quality time series. Other topics covered in this landmark volume include spatial analyses, spectral analyses and different methods for stream-flow modelling. Audience The book constitutes an invaluable resource for researchers, teachers, students and practitioners who wish to be at the forefront of time series analysis in the environmental sciences.

Objectives The current global environmental crisis has reinforced the need for developing flexible mathematical models to obtain a better understanding of environmental problems so that effective remedial action can be taken. Because natural phenomena occurring in hydrology and environmental engineering usually behave in random and probabilistic fashions, stochastic and statistical models have major roles to play in the protection and restoration of our natural environment. Consequently, the main objective of this edited volume is to present some of the most up-to-date and promising approaches to stochastic and statistical modelling, especially with respect to groundwater and surface water applications. Contents As shown in the Table of Contents, the book is subdivided into the following main parts: GENERAL ISSUES PART I PART II GROUNDWATER PART III SURFACE WATER PART IV STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION PART V MOMENT ANALYSIS PART VI OTHER TOPICS Part I raises some thought-provoking issues about probabilistic modelling of hydro logical and environmental systems. The first two papers in Part I are, in fact, keynote papers delivered at an international environmetrics conference held at the University of Waterloo in June, 1993, in honour of Professor T. E. Unny. In his keynote pa per, Dr. S. J. Burges of the University of Washington places into perspective the historical and future roles of stochastic modelling in hydrology and environmental engineering. Additionally, Dr. Burges stresses the need for developing a sound scien tific basis for the field of hydrology. Professor P. E.

This book provides a comprehensive yet fresh perspective for the cutting-edge CI-oriented approaches in water resources planning and management. The book takes a deep dive into topics like meta-heuristic evolutionary optimization algorithms (e.g., GA, PSA, etc.), data mining techniques (e.g., SVM, ANN, etc.), probabilistic and Bayesian-oriented frameworks, fuzzy logic, AI, deep learning, and expert systems. These approaches provide a practical approach to understand and resolve complicated and intertwined real-world problems that often imposed serious challenges to traditional deterministic precise frameworks. The topic caters to postgraduate students and senior researchers who are interested in computational intelligence approach to issues stemming from water and environmental sciences.

Sustainable water management is a key environmental challenge of the 21st century. This book presents the very latest studies, methods and innovations for managing our water resources from the first International Conference on Adaptive and Integrated Water Management, held in November 2007 in Basel, Switzerland. The book addresses a wide interdisciplinary audience of scientists and professionals from academia, industry, and those involved in policy making.

35 leading multi-disciplinary scientists with international reputations provide reviews of topical areas of research on uncertainty and reliability related aspects of water resource systems. The volume will be valuable for graduate students, scientists, consultants, administrators, and practising hydrologists and water managers.