Uncertainty And Surprise In Complex Systems

Complexity science has been a source of new insight in physical and social systems and has demonstrated that unpredictability and surprise are fundamental aspects of the world around us. This book is the outcome of a discussion meeting of leading scholars and critical thinkers with expertise in complex systems sciences and leaders from a variety of organizations, sponsored by the Prigogine Center at The University of Texas at Austin and the Plexus Institute, to explore strategies for understanding uncertainty and surprise. Besides contributions to the conference, it includes a key digest by the editors as well as a commentary by the late nobel laureate Ilya Prigogine, "Surprises in half of a century". The book is intended for researchers and scientists in complexity science, as well as for a broad interdisciplinary audience of both practitioners and scholars. It will well serve those interested in the research issues and in the application of complexity science to physical and social systems.

Medical uncertainty has been with us for centuries and remains a recurrent problem for patients, doctors, and researchers alike. Yet uncertainty in health care is still poorly understood and ineffectively managed; it is generally feared and avoided rather than directly confronted. This systemic disregard of uncertainty leads us to treat medical uncertainty as a pathological condition to be cured through the pursuit of knowledge, but often further medical knowledge begets further uncertainty in kind. Uncertainty in Medicine offers an alternative, multi-disciplinary perspective on this challenging problem. Integrating insights across clinical medicine and social science, Dr. Paul Han argues that uncertainty is an essential form of knowledge to be cultivated, rather than eradicated, in medical practice. He makes the case that the paradigm of medicine should be expanded to include not only the pursuit of medical knowledge but the treatment and palliation of medical uncertainty and its effects on physicians, other health professionals, and patients. Using clear language and a textbook approach, he analyzes the nature, etiology, and natural history of medical uncertainty, and develops a conceptual framework to guide its management. By promoting a more systematic way of conceptualizing the problem, this framework can enable clinicians and patients to better address medical uncertainty, and can help make uncertainty tolerance a more central focus of medical care. Rational and reassuring, Uncertainty in Medicine forges a new path for approaching medical uncertainty by arming readers from an array of disciplines with the tools they need to diagnose, treat, and confront its challenges more intentionally and effectively.

Air traffic management (ATM) comprises a highly complex socio-technical system that keeps air traffic flowing safely and efficiently, worldwide, every minute of the year. Over the last few decades, several ambitious ATM performance improvement programmes have been undertaken. Such programmes have mostly delivered local technological solutions, whilst corresponding ATM performance improvements have fallen short of stakeholder expectations. In hindsight, this can be substantially explained from a complexity science perspective: ATM is simply too complex to address through classical approaches such as system engineering and human factors. In order to change this, complexity science has to be embraced as ATM's 'best friend'. The applicability of complexity science paradigms to the analysis and modelling of future operations is driven by the need to accommodate long-term air traffic growth within an already-saturated ATM infrastructure. Complexity Science in Air Traffic Management is written particularly, but not exclusively, for transport researchers, though it also has a complementary appeal to practitioners, supported through the frequent references made to practical examples and operational themes such as performance, airline strategy, passenger mobility, delay propagation and free-flight safety. The book should also have significant appeal beyond the transport domain, due to its intrinsic value as an exposition of applied complexity science and applied research, drawing on examples of simulations and modelling throughout, with corresponding insights into the design of new concepts and policies, and the understanding of complex phenomena that are invisible to classical techniques.

In an increasingly complex world the natural human inclination is to oversimplify issues and problems to make them seem more comprehensible and less threatening. This tendency usually generates forms of dogmatism that diminish our ability to think creatively and to develop worthy talents. Fortunately, complexity theory is giving us ways to make sense of intricate, evolving phenomena. This book represents a broad, interdisciplinary application of complexity theory to a wide variety of phenomena in general education, STEM education, learner diversity and special education, social-emotional development, organizational leadership, urban planning, and the history of philosophy. The contributors provide nuanced analyses of the structures and dynamics of complex adaptive systems in these academic and professional fields.

This book is a comprehensive introduction to quantitative approaches to complex adaptive systems. Practically all areas of life on this planet are constantly confronted with complex systems, be it ecosystems, societies, traffic, financial markets, opinion formation and spreading, or the internet and social media. Complex systems are systems composed of many elements that interact strongly with each other, which makes them extremely rich dynamical systems showing a huge range of phenomena. Properties of complex systems that are of particular importance are their efficiency, robustness, resilience, and proneness to collapse. The quantitative tools and concepts needed to understand the co-evolutionary nature of networked systems and their properties are challenging. The book gives a self-contained introduction to these concepts, so that the reader will be equipped with a toolset that allows them to engage in the science of complex systems. Topics covered include random processes of path-dependent processes, co-evolutionary dynamics, dynamics of networks, the theory of scaling, and approaches from statistical mechanics and information theory. The book extends beyond the early classical literature in the field of complex systems and summarizes the methodological progress made over the past 20 years in a clear, structured, and comprehensive way.

This volume will interest healthcare researchers and health system designers alike. It revisits the evolution of health systems organization in light of regulatory and organizational evolution in health care, as well as assessing the latest evidence on physician integration, complexity, and system redesign.

This book provides practical guidance on research methods and designs that can be applied to Complex Dynamic Systems Theory (CDST) research. It discusses the contribution of CDST to the field of applied linguistics, examines what this perspective entails for research and introduces practical methods and templates, both qualitative and quantitative, for how applied linguistics researchers can design and conduct research using the CDST framework. Introduced in the book are methods ranging from those in widespread use in social complexity, to more familiar methods in use throughout applied linguistics. All are inherently suited to studying both dynamic change in context and interconnectedness. This accessible introduction to CDST research will equip readers with the knowledge to ensure compatibility between empirical research designs and the theoretical tenets of complexity. It will be of value to researchers working in the areas of applied linguistics, language pedagogy and educational linguistics and to scholars and professionals with an interest in second/foreign language acquisition and complexity theory.

Resilience is increasingly discussed as a key concept across many fields of international policymaking from sustainable development and climate change, insecurity, conflict and terrorism to urban and rural planning, international aid provision and the prevention of and responses to natural and man-made disasters. Edited by leading academic authorities from a number of disciplines, this is the first handbook to deal with resilience as a new conceptual approach to understanding and addressing a range of interdependent global challenges. The Handbook is divided into nine sections: Introduction: contested paradigms of resilience; the challenges of resilience; governing uncertainty; resilience and neoliberalism; environmental concerns and climate change adaptation; urban planning; disaster risk reduction and response; international security and insecurity; the policy and practices of international development. Highlighting how resilience-thinking is increasingly transforming international policy-making and government and institutional practices, this book will be an indispensable source of information for students, academics and the wider public interested in resilience, international relations and international security.