Uncertainty Modeling And Decision Making In Geotechnics

Uncertainty, Modeling, and Decision Making in Geotechnics shows how uncertainty quantification and numerical modeling can complement each other to enhance decision-making in geotechnical practice, filling a critical gap in guiding practitioners to address uncertainties directly. The book helps practitioners acquire a working knowledge of geotechnical risk and reliability methods and guides them to use these methods wisely in conjunction with data and numerical modeling. In particular, it provides guidance on the selection of realistic statistics and a cost-effective, accessible method to address different design objectives, and for different problem settings, and illustrates the value of this to decision-making using realistic examples. Bringing together statistical characterization, reliability analysis, reliability-based design, probabilistic inverse analysis, and physical insights drawn from case studies, this reference guide from an international team of experts offers an excellent resource for state-of-the-practice uncertainty-informed geotechnical design for specialist practitioners and the research community.

"This book shows how uncertainty quantification and numerical modeling can complement each other to enhance decision making in geotechnical practice, filling a critical gap in guiding practitioners to address uncertainties directly. It helps practitioners acquire a working knowledge of geotechnical risk and reliability methods and guides them to use these methods wisely in conjunction with data and numerical modeling. Bringing together statistical characterization, reliability analysis, reliability-based design, probabilistic inverse analysis, and physical insights drawn from case studies, this reference guide from an international team of experts offers an excellent resource for state-of-the-practice uncertainty-informed geotechnical design for specialist practitioners and the research community"--

Uncertainty, Modeling, and Decision Making in Geotechnics shows how uncertainty quantification and numerical modeling can complement each other to enhance decision-making in geotechnical practice, filling a critical gap in guiding practitioners to address uncertainties directly. The book helps practitioners acquire a working knowledge of geotechnical risk and reliability methods and guides them to use these methods wisely in conjunction with data and numerical modeling. In particular, it provides guidance on the selection of realistic statistics and a cost-effective, accessible method to address different design objectives, and for different problem settings, and illustrates the value of this to decision-making using realistic examples. Bringing together statistical characterization, reliability analysis, reliability-based design, probabilistic inverse analysis, and physical insights drawn from case studies, this reference guide from an international team of experts offers an excellent resource for state-of-the-practice uncertainty-informed geotechnical design for specialist practitioners and the research community.

With the expansion of new technologies, materials, and the design of complex systems, the expectations of society upon engineers are becoming larger than ever. Engineers make critical decisions with potentially high adverse consequences. The current political, societal, and financial climate requires engineers to formally consider the factors of uncertainty (e.g., floods, earthquakes, winds, environmental risks) in their decisions at all levels. Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Civil Engineering provides a thorough report on the immediate state of uncertainty modeling and analytical methods for civil engineering systems, presenting a toolbox for solving problems in real-world situations. Topics include Neural networks Genetic algorithms Numerical modeling Fuzzy sets and operations Reliability and risk analysis Systems control Uncertainty in probability estimates This compendium is a considerable reference for civil engineers as well as for engineers in other disciplines, computer scientists, general scientists, and students.

This volume addresses the issue of uncertainty in civil engineering from design to construction. Failures do occur in practice. Attributing them to a residual system risk or a faulty execution of the project does not properly cover the range of causes. A closer scrutiny of the adopted design, the engineering model, the data, the soil-construction-interaction and the model assumptions is required. Usually, the uncertainties in initial and boundary conditions are abundant. Current engineering practice often leaves these issues aside, despite the fact that new scientific tools have been developed in the past decades that allow a rational description of uncertainties of all kinds, from model uncertainty to data uncertainty. It is the aim of this volume to have a critical look at current engineering risk concepts in order to raise awareness of uncertainty in numerical computations, shortcomings of a strictly probabilistic safety concept, geotechnical models of failure mechanisms and their implications for construction management, execution, and the juristic question of responsibility. In addition, a number of the new procedures for modelling uncertainty are explained. The book is a result of a collaborate effort of mathematicians, engineers and construction managers who met regularly in a post graduate seminar at the University of Innsbruck during the past years.

Model Uncertainties in Foundation Design is unique in the compilation of the largest and the most diverse load test databases to date, covering many foundation types (shallow foundations, spudcans, driven piles, drilled shafts, rock sockets and helical piles) and a wide range of ground conditions (soil to soft rock). All databases with names prefixed by NUS are available upon request. This book presents a comprehensive evaluation of the model factor mean (bias) and coefficient of variation (COV) for ultimate and serviceability limit state based on these databases. These statistics can be used directly for AASHTO LRFD calibration. Besides load test databases, performance databases for other geo-structures and their model factor statistics are provided. Based on this extensive literature survey, a practical three-tier scheme for classifying the model uncertainty of geo-structures according to the model factor mean and COV is proposed. This empirically grounded scheme can underpin the calibration of resistance factors as a function of the degree of understanding – a concept already adopted in the Canadian Highway Bridge Design Code and being considered for the new draft for Eurocode 7 Part 1 (EN 1997-1:202x). The helical pile research in Chapter 7 was recognised by the 2020 ASCE Norman Medal.

Risk and reliability analysis is an area of growing importance in geotechnical engineering, where many variables have to be considered. Statistics, reliability modeling and engineering judgement are employed together to develop risk and decision analyses for civil engineering systems. The resulting engineering models are used to make probabilistic predictions, which are applied to geotechnical problems. Reliability & Statistics in Geotechnical Engineering comprehensively covers the subject of risk and reliability in both practical and research terms * Includes extensive use of case studies * Presents topics not covered elsewhere--spatial variability and stochastic properties of geological materials * No comparable texts available Practicing engineers will find this an essential resource as will graduates in geotechnical engineering programmes.

Modelling forms an implicit part of all engineering design but many engineers engage in modelling without consciously considering the nature, validity and consequences of the supporting assumptions. Derived from courses given to postgraduate and final year undergraduate MEng students, this book presents some of the models that form a part of the typical undergraduate geotechnical curriculum and describes some of the aspects of soil behaviour which contribute to the challenge of geotechnical modelling. Assuming a familiarity with basic soil mechanics and traditional methods of geotechnical design, this book is a valuable tool for students of geotechnical and structural and civil engineering as well as also being useful to practising engineers involved in the specification of numerical or physical geotechnical modelling.