Valuation Of Biotech Companies

The selection of biotech stocks for investment is more difficult compared with the selection of other stocks and industries that possess historical data, since biotechnology is a recently new science. In the first edition of this book, we described the crucial parameters for the valuation of an early stage biotech company without a drug in the market. In this edition, we analyze novel financial models that can value stocks of biotech companies with products in the market or products under development (in pre-clinical and clinical studies). All of these parameters should be helpful to potential new investors when creating a stock portfolio that includes highly promising biotech companies. Our strategy of selecting highly promising stocks based on all parameters described in this book and of performing a basic financial modeling analysis with DFC and/or real options valuation models has proven very successful, as this strategy provides returns higher than 100% in most cases. In the first edition of this book, based on our strategy, we suggested that Juno Therapeutics and Kite Pharma were "hot" stocks. At that time, Kite's stock was $50.19, while Juno's stock was $54.21. Since then, Kite's stock reached $179.79, with the company acquired by Gilead for $11.9 billion, while Juno's stock reached $86.96, with the company acquired by Celgene for $9 billion. Furthermore, Moderna Therapeutics, a private company that we valued at $5.5 billion in 2016 based on our real options financial model, today has a $7.5 billion valuation. This newly revised and expanded version was written to help investors in the selection of biotech stocks based on different scientific and financial criteria.

The pharmaceutical sector offers some of the most exciting financial and business opportunities today. This essential and practical guide gives you all the tools you need to assess such opportunities. The second edition of the respected Pharmaceutical Equities, it has been thoroughly revised and updated to reflect the changes, especially in life sciences, since the first edition. The book is international in outlook, and explains the rules of the game not just for wise investing, but also for understanding how this uniquely complex and highly regulated business works. The authors explain: HOW to evaluate the technology and research and development, as well as the sales potential of ensuing products WHAT key issues will affect and influence companies in the next few years HOW to balance potential high returns on breakthrough products against accompanying risks The book begins with a look at the global pharmaceutical industry, from its history to the structure of present day companies. The second part explores how to analyse and value pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies. The final part deals with trading itself and looks at share price movement and the main equity markets throughout the world. Both practical and comprehensive, this handbook will be essential reading for investors, analysers and corporate planners - and is the ONLY book which will show you how to actually value pharmaceutical companies.

The first book to provide a simple and practical means of valuing biotech companies The book begins with a short history of the biotechnology industry; this is important as although it is about 30 years old, the first company went public only in 1996, so it is possible to plot the course of investment waves and dips It examines the European industry and its evolvement, and draws parallels between the similarities and differences between that and the US Looks at the various companies which make up the biotech industry (therapeutic; life sciences; and the medical technology company) and gives tools for the investor to properly evaluate them Praise for Biotechnology Valuation "Keegan states that the valuation of Biotech companies is as much an art as a science. This brief but comprehensive review of the skills and knowledge required, not of just the financial market and sentiment, but also of the technical attributes of a company and the drug development and regulatory hurdles that must be overcome, highlights the importance of the breadth of understanding required. Biotech investing is not for the timid, but it can bring substantial returns. Keegan's book, punctuated with his personal experience and opinions, is a good place to start." —Chris Blackwell, Chief Executive, Vectura Group plc "A user-friendly, yet thorough discussion of a notoriously difficult topic. Dr Keegan's book is a fine resource for both business types and academicians." —Steve Winokur, Managing Director, CanaccordAdams "A highly readable and comprehensive explanation of the technical and commercial parameters that influence biotechnology companies at all stages of development, providing clear context for selection from the toolkit of valuation methodologies the author recommends to assess company and product performance, or ascribe value." —Dr L.M. Allan, Director, Bioscience Enterprise Programme, University of Cambridge "A fabulous approach to a difficult topic." —Deirdre Y. Gillespie, MD, President & CEO, La Jolla Pharmaceutical Company

Valuation is a hot topic among life sciences professionals. There is no clear understanding on how to use the different valuation approaches and how to determine input parameters. Some do not value at all, arguing that it is not possible to get realistic and objective numbers out of it. Some claim it to be an art. In the following chapters we will provide the user with a concise val- tion manual, providing transparency and practical insight for all dealing with valuation in life sciences: project and portfolio managers, licensing executives, business developers, technology transfer managers, entrep- neurs, investors, and analysts. The purpose of the book is to explain how to apply discounted cash flow and real options valuation to life sciences p- jects, i.e. to license contracts, patents, and firms. We explain the fun- mentals and the pitfalls with case studies so that the reader is capable of performing the valuations on his own and repeat the theory in the exercises and case studies. The book is structured in five parts: In the first part, the introduction, we discuss the role of the players in the life sciences industry and their p- ticular interests. We describe why valuation is important to them, where they need it, and the current problems to it. The second part deals with the input parameters required for valuation in life sciences, i.e. success rates, costs, peak sales, and timelines.

Biotechnology Venture Capital Valuations is an authoritative, insider's perspective on biotech venture capital for both the venture capitalist and the entrepreneur. Featuring partners, presidents, and CEOs of top venture capital and investment firms, Biotechnology Venture Capital Valuations provides best practices for venture capitalists and entrepreneurs at all stages of investment with a focus on determining valuations and structuring deals. These industry experts discuss their strategies for considering a biotech investment, locating investment opportunity, assessing risk, and negotiating with the entrepreneur, as well as offering different valuation methods for a variety of common scenarios. This book provides valuable insight for those investing capital as well as those needing it, including explanation of the different goals of the venture capitalist and entrepreneur, common mistakes made on both sides, and how best to establish a productive relationship between the two.

If you're a biotech executive, investor, deal maker, entrepreneur, or adviser-or aspire to be one-then you need to know how to build and analyze forecasts and valuation models of R&D-stage drugs. The Pharmagellan Guide is a comprehensive, thoroughly referenced handbook for early-stage biopharma assets and companies.

Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry is a definitive guide for forecasters as well as the multitude of decision makers and executives who rely on forecasts in their decision making. In virtually every decision, a pharmaceutical executive considers some type of forecast. This process of predicting the future is crucial to many aspects of the company - from next month's production schedule, to market estimates for drugs in the next decade. The pharmaceutical forecaster needs to strike a delicate balance between over-engineering the forecast - including rafts of data and complex ’black box’ equations that few stakeholders understand and even fewer buy into - and an overly simplistic approach that relies too heavily on anecdotal information and opinion. Arthur G. Cook's highly pragmatic guide explains the basis of a successful balanced forecast for products in development as well as currently marketed products. The author explores the pharmaceutical forecasting process; the varied tools and methods for new product and in-market forecasting; how they can be used to communicate market dynamics to the various stakeholders; and the strengths and weaknesses of different forecast approaches. The text is liberally illustrated with tables, diagrams and examples. The final extended case study provides the reader with an opportunity to test out their knowledge. The second edition has been updated throughout and includes a brand new chapter focusing on specialized topics such as forecasting for orphan drugs and biosimilars.