War And Escalation In South Asia

This monograph highlights key factors in South Asia imperiling U.S. interests, and suggests how and where the U.S. military might play an expanded, influential role. It suggests seven steps the military might take to better advance and defend U.S. interests in South Asia, the Middle East, and Asia at large. Washington should intensify involvement in South Asia and become more influential with the governments there. Given the area's potential for violence, it should also shape part of the U.S. military to meet potential crises.

The research reported here was part of a study called War and Escalation in South Asia, which was sponsored by the U.S. Air Force Director of Plans (XOX); Commander Central Command Air Forces (CENTAF/CC); and Commander, Pacific Air Force (PACAF/CC); and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF). This monograph focuses on the highlights that emerged from an examination of the potential for regional conflicts, tensions, and instability in South Asia to endanger U.S. goals and objectives in the region and more broadly, U.S. equities in the Middle East and greater Asia. Because India and Pakistan are both nuclear weapon states with a long history of tensions and sporadic violence between them, much of the monograph focuses on their relations and the potential for future trouble. This study deals with other sources of friction and conflict, although in a more limited scope. The research should be of interest to anyone concerned with regional stability issues. Other recent RAND research on South Asia includes the following: The Counterterror Coalitions: Cooperation with Pakistan and India, C. Christine Fair (MG-141-AF, 2004). This monograph examines U.S. strategic relations with India and Pakistan both historically and in the current context of the global war on terrorism. It concludes that the intractable dispute over the disposition of Kashmir remains a critical flashpoint between India and Pakistan and a continual security challenge and offers five policy options on how the United States might proceed.

This book focuses on the 2001-2002 crisis that brought India and Pakistan to the brink of war. Authors focus on: the political history that led to the crisis; the conventional military environment, the nuclear environment and coercive diplomacy and de-escalation during the crisis; and how South Asia can avoid similar crises in the future.

A unique account of military conflict under the shadow of nuclear escalation, with access to the soldiers and politicians involved.

This book examines the theory and practice of nuclear deterrence between India and Pakistan, two highly antagonistic South Asian neighbors who recently moved into their third decade of overt nuclear weaponization. It assesses the stability of Indo-Pakistani nuclear deterrence and argues that, while deterrence dampens the likelihood of escalation to conventional—and possibly nuclear—war, the chronically embittered relations between New Delhi and Islamabad mean that deterrence failure resulting in major warfare cannot be ruled out. Through an empirical examination of the effects of nuclear weapons during five crises between India and Pakistan since 1998, as well as a discussion of the theoretical logic of Indo-Pakistani nuclear deterrence, the book offers suggestions for enhancing deterrence stability between these two countries.