Weather Derivative Valuation

Originally published in 2005, Weather Derivative Valuation covers all the meteorological, statistical, financial and mathematical issues that arise in the pricing and risk management of weather derivatives. There are chapters on meteorological data and data cleaning, the modelling and pricing of single weather derivatives, the modelling and valuation of portfolios, the use of weather and seasonal forecasts in the pricing of weather derivatives, arbitrage pricing for weather derivatives, risk management, and the modelling of temperature, wind and precipitation. Specific issues covered in detail include the analysis of uncertainty in weather derivative pricing, time-series modelling of daily temperatures, the creation and use of probabilistic meteorological forecasts and the derivation of the weather derivative version of the Black-Scholes equation of mathematical finance. Written by consultants who work within the weather derivative industry, this book is packed with practical information and theoretical insight into the world of weather derivative pricing.

​Weather derivatives are financial instruments that can be used by organizations or individuals as part of a risk management strategy to minimize risk associated with adverse or unexpected weather conditions. Just as traditional contingent claims, a weather derivative has an underlying measure, such as: rainfall, wind, snow or temperature. Nearly $1 trillion of the U.S. economy is directly exposed to weather-related risk. More precisely, almost 30% of the U.S. economy and 70% of U.S. companies are affected by weather. The purpose of this monograph is to conduct an in-depth analysis of financial products that are traded in the weather market. Presenting a pricing and modeling approach for weather derivatives written on various underlying weather variables will help students, researchers, and industry professionals accurately price weather derivatives, and will provide strategies for effectively hedging against weather-related risk. This book will link the mathematical aspects of the modeling procedure of weather variables to the financial markets and the pricing of weather derivatives. Very little has been published in the area of weather risk, and this volume will appeal to graduate-level students and researchers studying financial mathematics, risk management, or energy finance, in addition to investors and professionals within the financial services industry. ​

Weather derivatives provide a tool for weather risk management, and the markets for these exotic financial products are gradually emerging in size and importance. This unique monograph presents a unified approach to the modeling and analysis of such weather derivatives, including financial contracts on temperature, wind and rain. Based on a deep statistical analysis of weather factors, sophisticated stochastic processes are introduced modeling the time and space dynamics. Applying ideas from the modern theory of mathematical finance, weather derivatives are priced, and questions of hedging analyzed. The treatise contains an in-depth analysis of typical weather contracts traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), including so-called CDD and HDD futures. The statistical analysis of weather variables are based on a large data set from Lithuania. The monograph includes the research done by the authors over the last decade on weather markets. Their work has gained considerable attention, and has been applied in many contexts.

Bachelor Thesis from the year 2013 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 4/4, , language: English, abstract: 1. Abstract This paper analyses weather derivatives and the issue of pricing these financial instruments. The non-tradability of the underlying makes their pricing not straightforward and even if the Chicago Mercantile Exchange began trading the first weather contract in 1999, the market still witnesses very low volumes and is relatively illiquid. This theoretical analysis is focused on instruments whose underlying is temperature, since they are the most traded. Due to the assumption of informational efficient markets, all available information should theoretically be included in the prices. However most existing models focus only on historical observations of temperature, actually excluding some relevant information. The few models that have instead considered weather forecasts are analysed, and in particular the model introduced by Ritter, Musshoff, and Odening to price temperature monthly futures including weather forecasts is described in details. I’ve performed an analysis applying a simplified version of the model described, based on temperature data from Tampa, Florida, in 2007. The results show that models with meteorological forecasts indeed outperform models that ignore them.

The last few years have been a watershed for the commodities, cash and derivatives industry. New regulations and products have led to an explosion in the commodities markets, creating a new asset for investors that includes hedge funds as well as University endowments, and has resulted in a spectacular growth in spot and derivative trading. This book covers hard and soft commodities (energy, agriculture and metals) and analyses: Economic and geopolitical issues in commodities markets Commodity price and volume risk Stochastic modelling of commodity spot prices and forward curves Real options valuation and hedging of physical assets in the energy industry It is required reading for energy companies and utilities practitioners, commodity cash and derivatives traders in investment banks, the Agrifood business, Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) and Hedge Funds. In Commodities and Commodity Derivatives, Hélyette Geman shows her powerful command of the subject by combining a rigorous development of its mathematical modelling with a compact institutional presentation of the arcane characteristics of commodities that makes the complex analysis of commodities derivative securities accessible to both the academic and practitioner who wants a deep foundation and a breadth of different market applications. It is destined to be a "must have" on the subject.” —Robert Merton, Professor, Harvard Business School "A marvelously comprehensive book of interest to academics and practitioners alike, by one of the world's foremost experts in the field." —Oldrich Vasicek, founder, KMV

Weather derivatives provide a tool for weather risk management, and the markets for these exotic financial products are gradually emerging in size and importance. This unique monograph presents a unified approach to the modeling and analysis of such weather derivatives, including financial contracts on temperature, wind and rain. Based on a deep statistical analysis of weather factors, sophisticated stochastic processes are introduced modeling the time and space dynamics. Applying ideas from the modern theory of mathematical finance, weather derivatives are priced, and questions of hedging analyzed. The treatise contains an in-depth analysis of typical weather contracts traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), including so-called CDD and HDD futures. The statistical analysis of weather variables is based on a large data set from Lithuania.The monograph includes the research done by the authors over the last decade on weather markets. Their work has gained considerable attention, and has been applied in many contexts.

Three experts provide an authoritative guide to the theory and practice of derivatives Derivatives: Theory and Practice and its companion website explore the practical uses of derivatives and offer a guide to the key results on pricing, hedging and speculation using derivative securities. The book links the theoretical and practical aspects of derivatives in one volume whilst keeping mathematics and statistics to a minimum. Throughout the book, the authors put the focus on explanations and applications. Designed as an engaging resource, the book contains commentaries that make serious points in a lighthearted manner. The authors examine the real world of derivatives finance and include discussions on a wide range of topics such as the use of derivatives by hedge funds and the application of strip and stack hedges by corporates, while providing an analysis of how risky the stock market can be for long-term investors, and more. To enhance learning, each chapter contains learning objectives, worked examples, details of relevant finance blogs technical appendices and exercises.