World Economic Outlook May 1991

This paper highlights that world economic growth is estimated to have declined from 31⁄4 percent in 1989 to 2 percent in 1990, reflecting a slowdown in the industrial countries and a fall in economic activity in developing countries of Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and the Western Hemisphere. The growth of the world economy is expected to decline further in 1991 (to 11⁄4 percent) owing to the weakness of some industrial economies, and to further declines in output in the Middle East and in Eastern Europe.

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) presents the IMF’s leading economists’ analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium terms. It is a respected, one-stop, trusted resource offering remarkable insight, balance, and perspective to decision makers and policymakers worldwide. Published twice yearly, the World Economic Outlook presents the outlook for growth, inflation, trade, employment, and other economic developments in a clear, practical format. Each WEO considers the issues affecting advanced, emerging market, and developing economies. Central bankers, economists, Financial institutions, business leaders, governments, think tanks, and researchers eagerly await this unique investigation of what’s happening and what’s ahead.

This paper highlights that the growth of world economic activity in 1991 is expected to fall to a scant 1 percent, the lowest in any year since 1982, when the industrial economies were in recession. The slowdown in the expansion of world trade would be considerably more pronounced. Output growth in the industrial countries as a group is expected to average 11⁄4 percent in 1991, reflecting a fall in economic activity in a number of countries. Cyclical divergences among the major countries persisted in the first half of 1991.

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) presents the IMF’s leading economists’ analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium terms. It is a respected, one-stop, trusted resource offering remarkable insight, balance, and perspective to decision makers and policymakers worldwide. Published twice yearly, the World Economic Outlook presents the outlook for growth, inflation, trade, employment, and other economic developments in a clear, practical format. Each WEO considers the issues affecting advanced, emerging market, and developing economies. Central bankers, economists, Financial institutions, business leaders, governments, think tanks, and researchers eagerly await this unique investigation of what’s happening and what’s ahead.

This paper describes the world economy in 1991 and balanced growth in industrial countries. The year 1985 has been somewhat disappointing from the viewpoint of economic growth. Expansion fell back by more than expected in the industrial world, and world trade increased only modestly. Macroeconomic policies in industrial countries are likely to be directed toward the medium-term objective of maintaining financial stability, while reducing the claims of governments on economic resources. Macroeconomic policies in developing countries reflect the considerable diversity of circumstances of the countries included in this group.

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) presents the IMF’s leading economists’ analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium terms. It is a respected, one-stop, trusted resource offering remarkable insight, balance, and perspective to decision makers and policymakers worldwide. Published twice yearly, the World Economic Outlook presents the outlook for growth, inflation, trade, employment, and other economic developments in a clear, practical format. Each WEO considers the issues affecting advanced, emerging market, and developing economies. Central bankers, economists, Financial institutions, business leaders, governments, think tanks, and researchers eagerly await this unique investigation of what’s happening and what’s ahead.

This paper highlights that following a small decline in world output in 1991, growth will recover to about 1½ percent in 1992 before gaining more momentum in 1993. There were signs of recovery in some of those industrial economies that have been in recession, but some other countries continued to show signs of weakness. Although the sluggishness of many cyclical indicators continues to highlight the downside risks to the short-term projections, there are several positive aspects of the current situation.

This paper highlights that following a small decline in world output in 1991, growth will recover to about 11⁄2 percent in 1992 before gaining more momentum in 1993. There were signs of recovery in some of those industrial economies that have been in recession, but some other countries continued to show signs of weakness. Although the sluggishness of many cyclical indicators continues to highlight the downside risks to the short-term projections, there are several positive aspects of the current situation.