World Economic Outlook October 1989

This paper highlights that after two years of rapid growth in 1987 and 1988, there are now signs that the economic expansion in industrial countries is moderating to more sustainable rates. Inflation pressures have built up over 1988, reflecting high levels of resource utilization as well as certain temporary factors, but monetary conditions have been tightened substantially. Although the risk of a dangerous acceleration of inflation still exists, it appears to have diminished somewhat. Growth has also been strong in many developing countries, particularly exporters of manufactures.

This paper highlights that the world economic condition improved significantly during 1988. In industrial countries, output growth strengthened markedly in an environment of moderate inflation. World trade expanded at its fastest rate since 1984, which had important spillover effects on many developing countries, particularly the exporters of manufactures; significant progress was made in reducing external imbalances among the major industrial countries; and the aggregate debt-to-exports ratio of developing countries was reduced. At the same time, several aspects of the current situation continue to demand the attention of policymakers.

This paper highlights that after several years of rapid expansion that brought many countries to historically high levels of resource utilization, the growth of the world economy is projected to slow to about 2 percent in 1990 from 3 percent in 1989. The global slowdown would reflect a moderation of growth in both industrial and developing countries and a contraction of output in Eastern Europe and in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. In 1991, the expansion in world output is expected to pick up to 2½ percent, reflecting stronger growth in developing countries.

Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.

This paper highlights that world economic growth is estimated to have declined from 3¼ percent in 1989 to 2 percent in 1990, reflecting a slowdown in the industrial countries and a fall in economic activity in developing countries of Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and the Western Hemisphere. The growth of the world economy is expected to decline further in 1991 (to 1¼ percent) owing to the weakness of some industrial economies, and to further declines in output in the Middle East and in Eastern Europe.