X Risk

How humanity came to contemplate its possible extinction. From forecasts of disastrous climate change to prophecies of evil AI superintelligences and the impending perils of genome editing, our species is increasingly concerned with the prospects of its own extinction. With humanity's future on this planet seeming more insecure by the day, in the twenty-first century, existential risk has become the object of a growing field of serious scientific inquiry. But, as Thomas Moynihan shows in X-Risk, this preoccupation is not exclusive to the post-atomic age of global warming and synthetic biology. Our growing concern with human extinction itself has a history. Tracing this untold story, Moynihan revisits the pioneers who first contemplated the possibility of human extinction and stages the historical drama of this momentous discovery. He shows how, far from being a secular reprise of religious prophecies of apocalypse, existential risk is a thoroughly modern idea, made possible by the burgeoning sciences and philosophical tumult of the Enlightenment era. In recollecting how we first came to care for our extinction, Moynihan reveals how today's attempts to measure and mitigate existential threats are the continuation of a project initiated over two centuries ago, which concerns the very vocation of the human as a rational, responsible, and future-oriented being.

This urgent and eye-opening book makes the case that protecting humanity's future is the central challenge of our time. If all goes well, human history is just beginning. Our species could survive for billions of years - enough time to end disease, poverty, and injustice, and to flourish in ways unimaginable today. But this vast future is at risk. With the advent of nuclear weapons, humanity entered a new age, where we face existential catastrophes - those from which we could never come back. Since then, these dangers have only multiplied, from climate change to engineered pathogens and artificial intelligence. If we do not act fast to reach a place of safety, it will soon be too late. Drawing on over a decade of research, The Precipice explores the cutting-edge science behind the risks we face. It puts them in the context of the greater story of humanity: showing how ending these risks is among the most pressing moral issues of our time. And it points the way forward, to the actions and strategies that can safeguard humanity. An Oxford philosopher committed to putting ideas into action, Toby Ord has advised the US National Intelligence Council, the UK Prime Minister's Office, and the World Bank on the biggest questions facing humanity. In The Precipice, he offers a startling reassessment of human history, the future we are failing to protect, and the steps we must take to ensure that our generation is not the last. "A book that seems made for the present moment." —New Yorker

How humanity came to contemplate its possible extinction. From forecasts of disastrous climate change to prophecies of evil AI superintelligences and the impending perils of genome editing, our species is increasingly concerned with the prospects of its own extinction. With humanity's future on this planet seeming more insecure by the day, in the twenty-first century, existential risk has become the object of a growing field of serious scientific inquiry. But, as Thomas Moynihan shows in X-Risk, this preoccupation is not exclusive to the post-atomic age of global warming and synthetic biology. Our growing concern with human extinction itself has a history. Tracing this untold story, Moynihan revisits the pioneers who first contemplated the possibility of human extinction and stages the historical drama of this momentous discovery. He shows how, far from being a secular reprise of religious prophecies of apocalypse, existential risk is a thoroughly modern idea, made possible by the burgeoning sciences and philosophical tumult of the Enlightenment era. In recollecting how we first came to care for our extinction, Moynihan reveals how today's attempts to measure and mitigate existential threats are the continuation of a project initiated over two centuries ago, which concerns the very vocation of the human as a rational, responsible, and future-oriented being.

A best practices guide to all of the elements of an effective operational risk framework While many organizations know how important operational risks are, they still continue to struggle with the best ways to identify and manage them. Organizations of all sizes and in all industries need best practices for identifying and managing key operational risks, if they intend on exceling in today's dynamic environment. Operational Risk Management fills this need by providing both the new and experienced operational risk professional with all of the tools and best practices needed to implement a successful operational risk framework. It also provides real-life examples of successful methods and tools you can use while facing the cultural challenges that are prevalent in this field. Contains informative post-mortems on some of the most notorious operational risk events of our time Explores the future of operational risk in the current regulatory environment Written by a recognized global expert on operational risk An effective operational risk framework is essential for today's organizations. This book will put you in a better position to develop one and use it to identify, assess, control, and mitigate any potential risks of this nature.

This book has been replaced by Managing Suicidal Risk, Third Edition, ISBN 978-1-4625-5269-6.

Master the most important investing skill of all—DECISION MAKING “De-risking your investments requires knowing that there is much you don’t know.” –David X Martin Risk exists because of one simple fact: Decisions are always based on incomplete information. Therefore, to meet your investment goals over the long term, you must learn to manage the risks associated with a decision-making process that is by nature flawed. Risk and the Smart Investor provides a framework for making such decisions. Avoiding unrealistic promises of completely risk-free investing, world-renowned risk management expert David X Martin familiarizes you with the principles of risk management. Based on Martin’s experience in managing risk at several of the world’s largest financial institutions, this principlebased approach presents a unique perspective that helps you manage the risk in every investment you make. Risk and the Smart Investor provides not only a framework for managing risk in today’s markets, it also prepares you to handle the next financial crisis—which is coming, sooner or later—by separating risk management into four separate processes: Assessment—know where you are, but accept the fact that you cannot know everything The Rules of the Game—determine your appetite for risk, diversify accordingly, demand transparency, and institute checks and balances Decision Making—consider all alternatives, fit your plans into specific time frames, and always have an exit strategy Reevaluation—continually monitor the outcomes of your decisions and learn from your mistakes Praise for Risk and the Smart Investor “Interesting and instructive. A good book for those who want to learn about risk and build this knowledge into their financial decisions.” —John Reed, former CEO, Citigroup “David Martin has produced a popular yet serious post-financial crisis reflection on the fundamentals of risk management as a living process. Rich in experience and wisdom, Risk and the Smart Investor is both a useful handbook brimming with insights, and a moral tale for our times. Simply a must-read for every serious investor, risk manager, and just about everyone else.” —Michael Power, professor, London School of Economics and Political Science “David Martin knows risk and the active investor and his book proves it.” —Jerry Lieberman “This book is like having your own mentor to guide you through risk management decisions.” —William Rhodes, Chairman, Citigroup and Citibank

Every day we make decisions about our health - some big and some small. What we eat, how we live and even where we live can affect our health. But how can we be sure that the advice we are given about these important matters is right for us? This book will provide you with the right tools for assessing health advice.

Collectively, the contributors explain why risk is such a key aspect of Western culture, and demonstrate that new regimes for risk management are transforming social integration, value-based reasoning and morality.