Yemen Economy Wide Impact Of Conflict And Alternative Scenarios For Recovery

In addition to the unprecedented humanitarian crisis and the creation of space for militant groups, the conflict in Yemen is also taking a heavy toll on the economy. According to estimates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF 2018), the Yemeni economy may have contracted by about 40 percent between end-2014 and 2018. Sector-specific information on physical damages from the World Bank’s Yemen Dynamic Needs Assessment (World Bank 2018) suggests that damage was worst in the housing sector, where 33 percent of housing units have been either partially damaged or completely destroyed. The education, health, transport, and water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) sectors have also been severely affected, with overall damage ranging from 27 percent (transport) to 31 percent (WASH). The power and ICT sectors have been somewhat less affected, with estimated damage levels of 13 percent and 11 percent, respectively.

The armed conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan entered its sixth month since it erupted on April 15th, 2023, with no signs of ending soon. The war has caused severe humanitarian catastrophe, destroyed key infrastructure, and constrained trade and production activities. Moreover, it disrupted access to public utilities, financial services, and markets, hence, triggering considerable scarcity of goods and services. In this paper, we utilize a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) Multiplier modeling framework to assess the economywide implications of these disruptions of economic activity, productive resources, and livelihoods. Results reveal that the economy would shrink to nearly half its size before the war, household incomes decline by more than 40 percent in urban and rural areas, and the number of poor people increase by 1.8 million if the war continues until the end of the year. The impact would have been two thirds less should the war have ended before July 2023 and would be one third less if it would end before October 2023. This study therefore calls for rapid interventions from all relevant parties to help reach an end to the fighting.

Food systems are at a critical juncture—they are evolving quickly to meet growing and changing demand but are not serving everyone’s needs. Building more inclusive food systems can bring a wide range of economic and development benefits to all people, especially the poor and disadvantaged. IFPRI’s 2020 Global Food Policy Report examines the policies and investments and the growing range of tools and technologies that can promote inclusion. Chapters examine the imperative of inclusion, challenges faced by smallholders, youth, women, and conflict-affected people, and the opportunities offered by expanding agrifood value chains and national food system transformations. Critical questions addressed include: How can inclusive food systems help break the intergenerational cycle of poverty and malnutrition? \What can be done to strengthen the midstream of food value chains to improve rural access to jobs, markets, and services? Will Africa’s food systems generate sufficient jobs for the growing youth population? How can women be empowered within food system processes, from household decisions to policymaking? Can refugees and other conflict-affected people be integrated into food systems to help them rebuild their lives? How can national food system transformations contribute to greater dietary diversity, food safety, and food quality for all? Regional sections look at how inclusion can be improved around the world in 2020 and beyond. The report also presents interesting trends revealed by IFPRI’s food policy indicators and datasets.

Evidence-based planning for post-conflict reconstruction is often constrained by missing data and the shortcomings of conventional analytical methods. To overcome these constraints, we use economy-wide modeling methods to model the impact of war and reconstruction possibilities for the economy of Yemen. We first calibrate the model to pre-conflict data (2014) and validate it by replicating the most recent available dynamic needs assessments for Yemen that were elaborated by the World Bank. We then report model scenario results for unobserved development indicators, such as estimates for sector-level growth, employment, and poverty. For the post-conflict period, we use the assumptions of a recent dynamic needs assessment and assume gradual reconstruction of the war-induced damages by the target year 2024. Then we focus on uncertain institutional factors and investigate their importance for the country’s socio-economic development. Finally, we assess the potential structural characteristics of Yemen’s economy in the year 2024 and analyze potential risks and trade-offs associated with government’s institutional performance and the implications these have for the pace of post-conflict reconstruction.

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Clearing landmines, rehabilitating and integrating of excombatants, rebuilding the infrastructure, coordinating aid sources—these are just some of the issues confronting the Bank in post-conflict reconstruction. The explosion of civil conflicts in the post-Cold War world has tested the World Bank's ability to address unprecedented devastation of human and social capital.This study covers post-conflict reconstruction in nine countries, assessing relevant, recent Bank experience. It also presents case-studies for ongoing and future operations, which analyze: 1. the Bank's main strengths or comparative advantages; 2. its partnership with other donors, international organizations, and NGOs; 3. its role in reconstruction strategy and damage and needs assessment; 4. its role in rebuilding the economy and institutions of governance; 5. its management of resources and processes; 6. implications for monitoring and evaluation.

This report provides an update on the acute food insecurity in countries and territories that have the world’s highest burden of people in need of emergency food, nutrition and livelihood assistance as a result of protracted conflict combined with other factors. This issue focuses on the following countries: Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Iraq, Mali, Mozambique, Myanmar, northern Nigeria, the Niger, Palestine, Somalia, South Sudan, the Sudan, the Syrian Arab Republic and Yemen. Specific information on Ukraine is also included given the situation currently unfolding. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) have jointly produced this report for the members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) since June 2016.

This report studies the economic and social impact of the armed conflict in Syria. Bringing together conflict-driven lossof lives, forced displacement, physical damages in capital, and overall economic collapse, it takes stock of theconsequences brought about by one of the most brutal conflicts of our time.The analysis extends our understanding of the Syrian conflict by focusing on the distinct roles played by physicaldestruction, casualties, and disruptions in economic organization in driving the economic and social impact of theconflict. Although visual effects, such as physical destruction, are more often noticed, the "invisible" effects, such asdisruptions in economic networks, increased rent seeking, and the erosion of social trust, play a greater role inexplaining the collapse in economic activity. The persistence of economic effects also differs across various channels.The economic impact of conflict-related casualties is much more persistent than that of other channels.As this report was written, the Syrian conflict was ongoing in its sixth year. The report suggests that the longer theconflict lasts, the slower and more difficult the post-conflict recovery will be.