2011 Triennial Surveillance Review External Study Imf Surveillance

External study prepared by Stephen Pickford, former IMF/World Bank Executive Director for the United Kingdom and former Managing Director of International and Europe at H.M. Treasury and G-20 Finance Deputy, United Kingdom: Surveillance (both bilateral and multilateral) is a key instrument for the Fund’s crisis prevention role, analyzing economic developments and policies at national, regional and global levels. It also identifies risks and vulnerabilities, and forms the main basis for the Fund‘s discussions with policy-makers.

External Study prepared by Jean Pisani-Ferry, André Sapir, and Guntram B. Wolff: This report provides an independent evaluation of recent IMF surveillance in the euro area (EA). It focuses on the euro area as a whole and on four countries severely hit by the recent economic and financial crisis, namely Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain.

External study prepared by John Palmer, Chair, Toronto Leadership Centre, former Superintendent, Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, Canada, former Deputy Managing Director Monetary Authority of Singapore, former Canadian Managing Partner of KPMG and Yoke Wang Tok, Former Senior Advisor to the IMF Executive Director representing ASEAN, Nepal, Fiji and Tonga and former Principal Economist, Monetary Authority of Singapore: This report aims to provide an independent view of how the Fund is discharging its multilateral surveillance responsibilities, in particular its contribution to global financial stability and crisis prevention, working in coordination with other relevant international groupings/institutions such as the FSB and BIS. As we emerge from the global financial crisis (GFC), the Fund has regained much of its credibility and relevance. The GFC caught many, including the IMF, by surprise. Since then, the Fund has done considerable self-analysis and taken active steps to strengthen its surveillance and policy advice and to improve traction with policy makers. The IEO report on the Fund’s performance in the run-up to the financial and economic crisis identified various shortcomings that needed to be addressed. One of its key findings was the inability of the Fund to connect-the dots, to deliver hard-hitting messages and the difficulty experienced by the Fund in thinking beyond mainstream/official views. Many of the IEO’s findings have relevance to this review.

This paper assesses progress in strengthening Fund surveillance and identifies needed improvements. It differs from past reviews insofar as it: (A) encompasses not only bilateral but also multilateral surveillance; and (B) steps-up external inputs in the form of studies by outside observers, commentaries, and assessment of recommendations by an external advisory group.

Report prepared by Jack Boorman, Former Director of the Policy Development and Review Department and Teresa Ter-Minassian, former Director of the Fiscal Affairs Department at the IMF: This report summarizes the views of a representative sample of country authorities on IMF surveillance.

This report was prepared by the External Advisory Group (EAG) for the 2011 Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR). The Group comprised the following members: Shankar Acharya, Marc Antoine Autheman, Kemal Dervis, Martin Hellwig, Takatoshi Ito, David Li, Pedro Malan, Stephen Pickford, Chukwuma Charles Soludo, Umayya Toukan, and Edwin Truman. The EAG was set up to provide an independent check on staff’s analysis and recommendations which are set out in the 2011 Triennial Surveillance Review—Overview Paper. The EAG contributed in written form and met twice during the course of the Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR)—on April 18 and July 29, 2011—to discuss the direction, emerging findings, and recommendations of the review.

Commentary prepared by Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times, London: "With countries naturally reluctant to cede any control over their own monetary and fiscal policies, it is likely that the IMF will have as instruments only the powers of analysis, persuasion, and, in Keynes" own favourite words, "ruthless truth-telling". That phrase does not conjure up many memories of any of the many international meetings I have attended. But unless the IMF has the self-confidence to play that role, its deliberations and statements will carry little weight. The Fund requires an independent, respected and clear voice." Mervyn King, 2006.

This paper evaluates the IMF’s exchange rate analysis since the 2008 TSR. It focuses on the evolution of methods, the quality of the IMF‘s multilateral and bilateral exchange rate analysis, the evenhandedness and transparency of this analysis, and the need to improve the coverage and integration of external stability assessments.