2011 Triennial Surveillance Review Report Of The External Advisory Group

This report was prepared by the External Advisory Group (EAG) for the 2011 Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR). The Group comprised the following members: Shankar Acharya, Marc Antoine Autheman, Kemal Dervis, Martin Hellwig, Takatoshi Ito, David Li, Pedro Malan, Stephen Pickford, Chukwuma Charles Soludo, Umayya Toukan, and Edwin Truman. The EAG was set up to provide an independent check on staff’s analysis and recommendations which are set out in the 2011 Triennial Surveillance Review—Overview Paper. The EAG contributed in written form and met twice during the course of the Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR)—on April 18 and July 29, 2011—to discuss the direction, emerging findings, and recommendations of the review.

This paper assesses progress in strengthening Fund surveillance and identifies needed improvements. It differs from past reviews insofar as it: (A) encompasses not only bilateral but also multilateral surveillance; and (B) steps-up external inputs in the form of studies by outside observers, commentaries, and assessment of recommendations by an external advisory group.

With the 2011 TSR laying out a wide ranging agenda for surveillance reform, the 2014 review will take a more narrowly focused approach and be mindful of the need to make cost-neutral recommendations. The themes and associated outputs will cover areas that address the IMF’s core mandate of ensuring the stability of the international monetary system, provide the most value-added for the membership, and leverage the Fund’s comparative advantages. The review will be based on: (i) a review and analysis of Article IV reports and multilateral surveillance products; (ii) guidance from an External Advisory Group at key stages of the exercise; (iii) background studies; and (iv) surveys and interviews with country authorities, staff, and other stakeholders. A review of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) will be conducted separately but concurrently with the TSR, with close coordination between the relevant authoring teams. The TSR will also take into account the findings of other recent work, including the progress report on the implementation of the Financial Surveillance Strategy, the range of papers on debt issues, the LIC pilot on financial depth and macroeconomic policy, the set of Board papers on the experience with unconventional monetary policies and the challenges of exit from these policies, and the planned discussion of communication issues with the Executive Board.

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This report seeks to help the IMF enhance its effectiveness by identifying major recurring issues from the IEO’s first 20 evaluations and assessing where they stand. The IMF’s core areas of responsibility are surveillance, lending, and capacity development. The aim of this report is to strengthen the follow-up process by focusing on key issues that recurred in IEO evaluations, rather than on specific recommendations on their implementation. The IEO believes that a framework of reviewing and monitoring recurring issues would be useful in establishing incentives for progress, strengthening the Board’s oversight, and providing learning opportunities for the IMF.

Monetary sovereignty is a crucial legal concept dictating that states have sovereignty over their own monetary, financial, and fiscal affairs. However, it does not feature as part of any key instruments of international law, including the Articles of Agreement of the International Monetary Fund. Rather, it has remained a somewhat separate notion, developed under contemporary international law from an assertion of the former Permanent Court of International Justice in 1929. As a consequence of globalization and increasing financial integration and a worldwide trend towards the creation of economic and monetary unions, the principle of monetary sovereignty has undergone significant change. This book examines this evolution in detail, and provides a conceptual framework to demonstrate what this means for the legal and economic challenges faced by the international community. The book examines the historic origins and evolution of the concept of monetary sovereignty, putting it into the context of broader concepts of sovereignty. It argues that monetary sovereignty remains relevant as a dynamic legal concept with both positive and normative components. It investigates the continuing hybridization of international monetary law resulting from changes to its formal and material sources. It then examines the complex phenomenon of exchange rate misalignment under international monetary and trade law, and the increasing regionalization of monetary sovereignty, notably in light of the European sovereign debt crisis. Finally, it assesses the role the concept of monetary sovereignty can play in the reorganization of international finance following the recent global financial crisis.

Over the past three years, the IMF has worked to assist members in addressing the repercussions of the global financial crisis while also tackling gaps in its surveillance framework that the crisis laid bare. This reform agenda has drawn extensively from the recommendations of the 2008 Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR), as well as subsequent IMF and IEO reviews of the Fund's performance in the run-up to the crisis. This TSR provides an opportunity to take stock of the steps taken and to assess recent experience with surveillance.

The WTO's Trade Policy Review Mechanism, which reviews the trade policies and practices of each WTO member at regular intervals, is generally considered to function well. In this day and age, complacency is unwise. Examining trade policy reviews throughout the lifetime of the TPRM, this book details its evolution from Article X of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade to the proposed modifications resulting from the mechanism's latest appraisal, examining the budgetary capabilities and technical performance of all the main entities who participate in the reviews. On the basis of these considerations, the author concludes that in order to remain relevant, especially in times of increased global protectionism, the TPRM could, and should do better, and provides unique and timely suggestions for reform.