A Global Projection Model For Euro Area Large Economies
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A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies
Author | : Zoltan Jakab,Pavel Lukyantsau,Mr.Shengzu Wang |
Publsiher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 31 |
Release | : 2015-03-02 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9781498399609 |
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The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. This paper creates a special version of GPM that includes the four largest Euro Area (EA) countries. The EA countries are more vulnerable to domestic and external demand shocks because adjustments in the real exchange rate between EA countries occur more gradually through inflation differentials. Spillovers from tight credit conditions in each EA country are limited by direct trade channels and small confidence spillovers, but we also consider scenarios where banks in all EU countries tighten credit conditions simultaneously.
A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies
Author | : Zoltán Jakab |
Publsiher | : Unknown |
Total Pages | : 31 |
Release | : 2015 |
Genre | : Economic forecasting |
ISBN | : 1498304192 |
Download A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. This paper creates a special version of GPM that includes the four largest Euro Area (EA) countries. The EA countries are more vulnerable to domestic and external demand shocks because adjustments in the real exchange rate between EA countries occur more gradually through inflation differentials. Spillovers from tight credit conditions in each EA country are limited by direct trade channels and small confidence spillovers, but we also consider scenarios where banks in all EU countries tighten credit conditions simultaneously.--Abstract.
Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model
Author | : Charles Freedman,Michal Andrle,Danny Hermawan,Haris Munandar,Mr.Roberto Garcia-Saltos,Mr.Douglas Laxton |
Publsiher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 59 |
Release | : 2009-11-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9781451941715 |
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This is the fifth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add Indonesia to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.
Investment in the Euro Area
Author | : Ms.Bergljot Barkbu,Pelin Berkmen,Pavel Lukyantsau,Mr.Sergejs Saksonovs,Hanni Schoelermann |
Publsiher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 30 |
Release | : 2015-02-19 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9781498364805 |
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Investment across the euro area remains below its pre-crisis level. Its performance has been weaker than in most previous recessions and financial crises. This paper shows that a part of this weakness can be explained by output dynamics, particularly before the European sovereign debt crisis. The rest is explained by a high cost of capital, financial constraints, corporate leverage, and uncertainty. There is a considerable cross country heterogeneity in terms of both investment dymanics and its determinants. Based on the findings of this paper, investment is expected to pick up as the recovery strengthens and uncertainty declines, but persistent financial fragmentation and high corporate leverage in some countries will likely continue to weigh on investment.
A Small Quarterly Multi Country Projection Model
Author | : Mr.Ondrej Kamenik,Ioan Carabenciov,Igor Ermolaev,Charles Freedman,Dmitry Korshunov,Jared Laxton,Mr.Douglas Laxton,Michel Juillard |
Publsiher | : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND |
Total Pages | : 59 |
Release | : 2008-12-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451871376 |
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This is the second of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.
A Small Quarterly Multi Country Projection Model with Financial Real Linkages and Oil Prices
Author | : Mr.Ondrej Kamenik,Ioan Carabenciov,Igor Ermolaev,Charles Freedman,Dmitry Korshunov,Jared Laxton,Mr.Douglas Laxton,Michel Juillard |
Publsiher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 76 |
Release | : 2008-12-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9781451871388 |
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This is the third of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies that incorporates oil prices and allows us to trace out the effects of shocks to oil prices. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.
Republic of Poland
Author | : International Monetary Fund |
Publsiher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 38 |
Release | : 2012-07-05 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9781475506549 |
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This Selected Issues Paper focuses on the economic and financial ties between Poland and the euro area and analyzes the associated spillovers. It documents stylized facts about trade, vertical integration, foreign direct investment, and banking system linkages between Poland and core euro area countries. The impact of shocks originating from the euro area on economic developments in Poland is quantified using two methods, namely a vector auto-regression model and a small-open-economy quarterly projection model.
Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model
Author | : Charles Freedman,Marianne Johnson,Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko,Roberto Garcia-Saltos,Douglas Laxton |
Publsiher | : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND |
Total Pages | : 48 |
Release | : 2009-04-01 |
Genre | : Electronic Book |
ISBN | : 1451872321 |
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This is the fourth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add Latin American economies to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.