Advanced Dynamic Modeling Of Economic And Social Systems

In this volume recent advances in the use of modern quantitative models for the analysis of various problems related to the dynamics of social and economic systems are presented. The majority chapters describe tools and techniques of broadly perceived computational intelligence, notably fuzzy logic, evolutionary computation, neural networks and some non-standard probabilistic and statistical analyses. Due to the high complexity of the systems and problems considered, in many situations it is necessary to consider at the same time analytic, topological and statistical aspects and apply appropriate procedures and algorithms. This volume is a direct result of vivid discussions held during the Fifth International Workshop on Dynamics of Social and Economical Systems (DYSES) which was held at Benevento, Italy September 20-25, 2010, as well as a couple of post-workshop meetings and consultations.

In this volume recent advances in the use of modern quantitative models for the analysis of various problems related to the dynamics of social and economic systems are presented. The majority chapters describe tools and techniques of broadly perceived computational intelligence, notably fuzzy logic, evolutionary computation, neural networks and some non-standard probabilistic and statistical analyses. Due to the high complexity of the systems and problems considered, in many situations it is necessary to consider at the same time analytic, topological and statistical aspects and apply appropriate procedures and algorithms. This volume is a direct result of vivid discussions held during the Fifth International Workshop on Dynamics of Social and Economical Systems (DYSES) which was held at Benevento, Italy September 20-25, 2010, as well as a couple of post-workshop meetings and consultations.

"The CD-ROM contains the run time version of the STELLA II software which is fully compatible with later versions of the software. All these versions of the software are collectively referred to in the text as STELLA"--Back of title page.

This book approaches economic problems from a systems thinking and feedback perspective. By introducing system dynamics methods (including qualitative and quantitative techniques) and computer simulation models, the respective contributions apply feedback analysis and dynamic simulation modeling to important local, national, and global economics issues and concerns. Topics covered include: an introduction to macro modeling using a system dynamics framework; a system dynamics translation of the Phillips machine; a re-examination of classical economic theories from a feedback perspective; analyses of important social, ecological, and resource issues; the development of a biophysical economics module for global modelling; contributions to monetary and financial economics; analyses of macroeconomic growth, income distribution and alternative theories of well-being; and a re-examination of scenario macro modeling. The contributions also examine the philosophical differences between the economics and system dynamics communities in an effort to bridge existing gaps and compare methods. Many models and other supporting information are provided as online supplementary files. Consequently, the book appeals to students and scholars in economics, as well as to practitioners and policy analysts interested in using systems thinking and system dynamics modeling to understand and improve economic systems around the world. "Clearly, there is much space for more collaboration between the advocates of post-Keynesian economics and system dynamics! More generally, I would like to recommend this book to all scholars and practitioners interested in exploring the interface and synergies between economics, system dynamics, and feedback thinking." Comments in the Foreword by Marc Lavoie, Emeritus Professor, University of Ottawa and University of Sorbonne Paris Nord

This edited book considers social systems as self-organizing structures that reproduce new structural elements endowed with certain functional connections. The authors analyze innovative processes in social systems, leading to the sustainable convergence of knowledge and the emergence of technologies that improve the level of material well-being in society. The book summarizes research results in the field of digitalization and reveals deep connections with social problems. In addition, the book presents a whole array of innovative research on social systems management and the application of knowledge and intelligence to the solution of social problems. The contributing scholars and practitioners reflect on various types of social systems and assess the influence of disruptive factors from natural and coupled human-natural environments, discussing possible mechanisms for their neutralization. Sustainable development of social systems is among the most important tasks facing the contemporary world. The contributed book highlights challenges to the sustainability of social systems, draws sociotechnical images of the future world order generated by the rapid development of intellectual technologies, and critically analyzes promising concepts for more sustainable social future. Among the discussed topics in the book are social governance, digital economy, technological landscapes, social systems modeling and simulation, cyber-social systems, knowledge-based innovation systems, complex processes in social systems, institutional arrangements, and other advancing research areas. The high-quality and original studies presented in the book appeal to those interested in broadening their perspectives on complexity science, complex social systems research, complex systems management, advanced technological development in social systems, etc. Since the book is rich with well-thought theories, advanced research approaches, and interdisciplinary research results, it becomes a great source of new ideas and insights on complex social systems.

Economics and the social sciences are, in fact, the ?hard? sciences, as Herbert Simon argued, because the complexity of the problems dealt with cannot simply be reduced to analytically solvable models or decomposed into separate subprocesses. Nevertheless, in recent years, the emerging interdisciplinary ?sciences of complexity? have provided new methods and tools for tackling these problems, ranging from complex data analysis to sophisticated computer simulations. In particular, advanced methods developed in the natural sciences have recently also been applied to social and economic problems.The twenty-one chapters of this book reflect this modern development from various modeling perspectives (such as agent-based models, evolutionary game theory, reinforcement learning and neural network techniques, time series analysis, non-equilibrium macroscopic dynamics) and for a broad range of socio-economic applications (market dynamics, technological evolution, spatial dynamics and economic growth, decision processes, and agent societies). They jointly demonstrate a shift of perspective in economics and the social sciences that is allowing a new outlook in this field to emerge.

The book provides a comprehensive and timely report on the topic of decision making and decision analysis in economics and the social sciences. The various contributions included in the book, selected using a peer review process, present important studies and research conducted in various countries around the globe. The majority of these studies are concerned with the analysis, modeling and formalization of the behavior of groups or committees that are in charge of making decisions of social and economic importance. Decisions in these contexts have to meet precise coherence standards and achieve a significant degree of sharing, consensus and acceptance, even in uncertain and fuzzy environments. This necessitates the confluence of several research fields, such as foundations of social choice and decision making, mathematics, complexity, psychology, sociology and economics. A large spectrum of problems that may be encountered during decision making and decision analysis in the areas of economics and the social sciences, together with a broad range of tools and techniques that may be used to solve those problems, are presented in detail in this book, making it an ideal reference work for all those interested in analyzing and implementing mathematical tools for application to relevant issues involving the economy and society.