African Commitments For Agricultural Development Goals And Milestones For Niger

The main objective of this study is to assess the potential contribution of agricultural investment to the achievement of Niger's economic and social development objectives. By combining a computable general equilibrium model and a microeconomic model, it helps to determine to what extent the implementation of the National Agricultural Investment Programme (NAIP) would enable Niger to achieve the objectives and targets of the CAADP, the United Nations’ SDGs and the African Union Agenda 2063. The results indicate that the implementation of the NAIP would enable the country to maintain the share of public agricultural expenditure above the 10% target set by CAADP. All things being equal, this would improve the attractiveness of the agricultural sector and increase both domestic and foreign private investment in the sector. Increased public and private investment could lead to agricultural GDP growth at a rate above the CAADP target of 6%, and to the achievement of several sustainable development goals by 2030 as well as some of the targets of the African Union's Agenda 2063. In particular, Niger could halve poverty by 2030. Similarly, the country could achieve the objective of sustainable growth and the creation of decent employment. However, reducing inequality and eradicating extreme poverty will remain major challenges for the country.

The main purpose of this study is to assess the contribution of agricultural investment to the achievement of Côte d'Ivoire's development objectives. More specifically, it aims to analyze the extent to which the implementation of the National Agricultural Investment Programme can contribute to the achievement of the objectives and targets of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP), the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the African Union's Agenda 2063. The methodological used combines a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a microsimulation model to assess the impact of agricultural investment options on different outcomes related to the different agendas above. The simulation results indicate that the implementation of the NAIP would enable Côte d'Ivoire to make significant progress and achieve some of the CAADP, SDGs and the African union’s 2063 Agenda’s targets. Thus, the country could achieve investment targets by slightly exceeding the 10% share of public expenditure in total government expenditure and a significant increase in private investment in agriculture. This progress in terms of investment could result in an acceleration of agricultural growth so that Côte d'Ivoire's agricultural GDP would increase at a growth rate above the target of 6% per year. It would also make it possible to achieve several SDGs by 2030, as well as certain targets of the African Union's Agenda 2063. However, despite progress in terms of productivity in some segments of the agricultural value chain, the fight against poverty will remain a major challenge that the country will not be able to meet.

The study developed a results framework to analyze Rwanda’s progress towards selected CAADP/Malabo, SDGs and Agenda 2063 goals. A Computable General Equilibrium model linked to an income distribution Micro-Simulation model were used to identify priority investment areas for accelerated agricultural growth, poverty and inequality reduction. The current investment trend simulated in the baseline scenario would leave Rwanda off-track to meet these objectives. The analysis of alternative agricultural investment scenarios shows that enhancing the role of the private sector in agriculture will be critical in curbing supply side constraints. The government plays a central role by creating an environment and making the sector more attractive to private investors. Developments outside of the agricultural sector and social protection will be critical to further reduce poverty. Productivity remains one of the major challenges but also one of the most effective solutions for accelerated agricultural growth in Rwanda. Agricultural investments should be designed considering the agricultural value-chain.

The study developed a results framework to analyze Ethiopia’s progress towards selected CAADP/Malabo, SDGs and Agenda 2063 goals. A Computable General Equilibrium model linked to an income distribution Micro-Simulation model were used to identify priority investment areas for accelerated agricultural growth, poverty and inequality reduction. Simulation results indicate that the current investment trend and composition would leave Ethiopia off-track to meet these objectives. The analysis of alternative agricultural investment scenarios shows that the public sector has still a great role to play in promoting agricultural growth in Ethiopia. Past expenditure levels have been high, though not sufficient, and would need to increase substantially with an emphasis on the quality of public agricultural spending. Productivity remains one of the major challenges but also one of the most effective solutions for accelerated agricultural growth in Ethiopia. Agricultural investments should be designed considering the agricultural value-chain. While social protection programs are important for the poor, rural non-agricultural development could provide a more sustainable source of income.