African Economic Outlook 2016 Sustainable Cities And Structural Transformation

This report presents the continent’s current state of affairs and forecasts its situation for the coming two years. It examines Africa’s performance in crucial areas: macroeconomics, financing, trade policies and regional integration, human development, and governance.

The African Economic Outlook 2015 analyses Africa’s growing role in the world economy and predicts the continent’s two-year prospects in crucial areas: macroeconomics, financing, trade policies and regional integration, human development, and governance.

The 2017 Economic Report on Africa focuses on the linkages between industrialization and urbanization. Urbanization is one of Africa mega trends with profound implications for the social, economic, environmental dimensions of growth and transformation. Theory and experience demonstrate that industrialization and urbanization can be mutually reinforcing processes. It is therefore imperative to explore the linkages between urbanization and industrialization given the profound implications for structural transformation in Africa. So far, current policy narratives and frameworks on structural transformation and industrialization in Africa have largely failed to factor in the spatial and urban dimensions of industrialization, and in particular the advantages presented by productivity enhancement and agglomeration effects generated by cities. Yet, the nexus between urbanization and industrialization is of particular relevance for Agenda 2063 and the 2030 Agenda on Sustainable Development. Both agendas recognize urbanization as a critical factor for sustainable development. It is also important to consider urbanization and industrialization in light of Africa's engagement with the Third United Nations Conference on Housing and Sustainable Urban Development (Habitat III) to be held in Quito, Ecuador in October 2016. In this context, African policy makers have clearly recognized urbanization as an engine of structural transformation for inclusive and sustainable growth.

‘Resurgent Africa: Structural Transformation in Sustainable Development’ is a study of structural change dynamics in Africa and its effect on job creation, living standards and the efficiency of productive cities through manufacturing productivity growth that benefit the majority. Empirical data from selected African countries, including Nigeria, Ghana, South Africa, Kenya, Rwanda and Ethiopia, provides in-depth analysis and knowledge of the continent’s diversified economies by establishing relationships between industrialization trends; rates of urbanization; and urban living standards, income growth and employment in Africa. The findings reveal unconventional pathways of structural change, patterns of jobless growth suggesting economic growth that does not necessarily lead to employment, dominance of services at the expense of manufacturing industry explaining the regress in Africa’s industrial sector and occurrence of structural transformation without improvement in labour productivity. These are important concerns for Africa’s long-term development leading to the conclusion that sustainable urbanization and industrialization are not only closely connected but also key drivers of economic change. The book includes recommendations for policymakers to adopt a new approach to development for a resurgent Africa.

The 2016 edition of the Economic Report on Africa (ERA 2016) focuses on greening industrialization and highlights sustainable and people-centred industrialization. Given the impacts of climate change, resource scarcities and environmental degradation, measures for de-risking Africa’s development are critical. The form and pattern of Africa’s industrialization, shaped by its abundant natural resources especially water and renewable energy sources, are discussed within the scale and scope that tackles inequality and promotes inclusivity. The report employs a value chain approach in analyzing the decoupling needs of key economic sectors towards low carbon intensive economic growth in Africa. Country case studies are used in demonstrating ongoing greening activities across key sectors. This is supported with modelling of future development scenarios under ‘Business-as Usual’ and “Greening” to demonstrate the additionality of greening policies and investments in making a business case to support the industrialization and transformation momentum in the continent’s development agenda. The report therefore provides evidence-based information to policymakers and other stakeholders on greening Africa’s industrialization to achieve inclusive and sustainable structural transformation and growth on the continent.

This report provides concrete policy recommendations for African policy makers and their development partners on how to promote sustainable structural transformation in Africa, meaning a sustainable structural transformation that integrates the relative decoupling of natural resource use and environmental impacts from the growth process. The Report also discusses why a strategy of sustainable structural transformation is important for Africa, how strategic priorities can be identified and the role of the national State and the international community in such a strategy.

African countries face unprecedented challenges of defining a future development pathway in a resource- and carbon-constrained world. This book addresses this challenge, with special reference to the set of infrastructure that most African countries require to meet the sustainable development goals and fulfil the aspirations of Agenda 2063. Infrastructure is a key factor that determines how resource and energy flow and transform through socio-economic systems. Decisions made today by African countries on their infrastructural configuration will determine the inclusivity, resource intensity and climate resilience of their development pathways for decades to come. This book is a product of a two‑year research conducted by a group of African scholars who have an extensive academic and practical experience on the development of key infrastructure sectors in Africa.