Age Structured Epidemic Modeling

This book introduces advanced mathematical methods and techniques for analysis and simulation of models in mathematical epidemiology. Chronological age and class-age play an important role in the description of infectious diseases and this text provides the tools for the analysis of this type of partial differential equation models. This book presents general theoretical tools as well as large number of specific examples to guide the reader to develop their own tools that they may then apply to study structured models in mathematical epidemiology. The book will be a valuable addition to the arsenal of all researchers interested in developing theory or studying specific models with age structure.

This book is the first one in which basic demographic models are rigorously formulated by using modern age-structured population dynamics, extended to study real-world population problems. Age structure is a crucial factor in understanding population phenomena, and the essential ideas in demography and epidemiology cannot be understood without mathematical formulation; therefore, this book gives readers a robust mathematical introduction to human population studies. In the first part of the volume, classical demographic models such as the stable population model and its linear extensions, density-dependent nonlinear models, and pair-formation models are formulated by the McKendrick partial differential equation and are analyzed from a dynamical system point of view. In the second part, mathematical models for infectious diseases spreading at the population level are examined by using nonlinear differential equations and a renewal equation. Since an epidemic can be seen as a nonlinear renewal process of an infected population, this book will provide a natural unification point of view for demography and epidemiology. The well-known epidemic threshold principle is formulated by the basic reproduction number, which is also a most important key index in demography. The author develops a universal theory of the basic reproduction number in heterogeneous environments. By introducing the host age structure, epidemic models are developed into more realistic demographic formulations, which are essentially needed to attack urgent epidemiological control problems in the real world.

This timely book covers the basic concepts of the dynamics of epidemic disease, presenting various kinds of models as well as typical research methods and results. It introduces the latest results in the current literature, especially those obtained by highly rated Chinese scholars. A lot of attention is paid to the qualitative analysis of models, the sheer variety of models, and the frontiers of mathematical epidemiology. The process and key steps in epidemiological modeling and prediction are highlighted, using transmission models of HIV/AIDS, SARS, and tuberculosis as application examples.

Surveys the state of epidemic modelling, resulting from the NATO Advanced Workshop at the Newton Institute in 1993.

The book is a comprehensive, self-contained introduction to the mathematical modeling and analysis of infectious diseases. It includes model building, fitting to data, local and global analysis techniques. Various types of deterministic dynamical models are considered: ordinary differential equation models, delay-differential equation models, difference equation models, age-structured PDE models and diffusion models. It includes various techniques for the computation of the basic reproduction number as well as approaches to the epidemiological interpretation of the reproduction number. MATLAB code is included to facilitate the data fitting and the simulation with age-structured models.

Based on lecture notes of two summer schools with a mixed audience from mathematical sciences, epidemiology and public health, this volume offers a comprehensive introduction to basic ideas and techniques in modeling infectious diseases, for the comparison of strategies to plan for an anticipated epidemic or pandemic, and to deal with a disease outbreak in real time. It covers detailed case studies for diseases including pandemic influenza, West Nile virus, and childhood diseases. Models for other diseases including Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, fox rabies, and sexually transmitted infections are included as applications. Its chapters are coherent and complementary independent units. In order to accustom students to look at the current literature and to experience different perspectives, no attempt has been made to achieve united writing style or unified notation. Notes on some mathematical background (calculus, matrix algebra, differential equations, and probability) have been prepared and may be downloaded at the web site of the Centre for Disease Modeling (www.cdm.yorku.ca).

This book covers a wide range of topics within mathematical modelling and the optimization of economic, demographic, technological and environmental phenomena. Each chapter is written by experts in their field and represents new advances in modelling theory and practice. These essays are exemplary of the fruitful interaction between theory and practice when exploring global and local changes. The unifying theme of the book is the use of mathematical models and optimization methods to describe age-structured populations in economy, demography, technological change, and the environment. Emphasis is placed on deterministic dynamic models that take age or size structures, delay effects, and non-standard decision variables into account. In addition, the contributions deal with the age structure of assets, resources, and populations under study. Interdisciplinary modelling has enormous potential for discovering new insights in global and regional development. Optimal Control of Age-structured Populations in Economy, Demography, and the Environment is a rich and excellent source of information on state-of-the-art modelling expertise and references. The book provides the necessary mathematical background for readers from different areas, such as applied sciences, management sciences and operations research, which helps guide the development of practical models. As well as this the book also surveys the current practice in applied modelling and looks at new research areas for a general mathematical audience. This book will be of interest primarily to researchers, postgraduate students, as well as a wider scientific community, including those focussing on the subjects of applied mathematics, environmental sciences, economics, demography, management, and operations research.