Applied Time Series Analysis With R

Virtually any random process developing chronologically can be viewed as a time series. In economics closing prices of stocks, the cost of money, the jobless rate, and retail sales are just a few examples of many. Developed from course notes and extensively classroom-tested, Applied Time Series Analysis with R, Second Edition includes examples across a variety of fields, develops theory, and provides an R-based software package to aid in addressing time series problems in a broad spectrum of fields. The material is organized in an optimal format for graduate students in statistics as well as in the natural and social sciences to learn to use and understand the tools of applied time series analysis. Features Gives readers the ability to actually solve significant real-world problems Addresses many types of nonstationary time series and cutting-edge methodologies Promotes understanding of the data and associated models rather than viewing it as the output of a "black box" Provides the R package tswge available on CRAN which contains functions and over 100 real and simulated data sets to accompany the book. Extensive help regarding the use of tswge functions is provided in appendices and on an associated website. Over 150 exercises and extensive support for instructors The second edition includes additional real-data examples, uses R-based code that helps students easily analyze data, generate realizations from models, and explore the associated characteristics. It also adds discussion of new advances in the analysis of long memory data and data with time-varying frequencies (TVF).

Virtually any random process developing chronologically can be viewed as a time series. In economics, closing prices of stocks, the cost of money, the jobless rate, and retail sales are just a few examples of many. Developed from course notes and extensively classroom-tested, Applied Time Series Analysis includes examples across a variety of fields, develops theory, and provides software to address time series problems in a broad spectrum of fields. The authors organize the information in such a format that graduate students in applied science, statistics, and economics can satisfactorily navigate their way through the book while maintaining mathematical rigor. One of the unique features of Applied Time Series Analysis is the associated software, GW-WINKS, designed to help students easily generate realizations from models and explore the associated model and data characteristics. The text explores many important new methodologies that have developed in time series, such as ARCH and GARCH processes, time varying frequencies (TVF), wavelets, and more. Other programs (some written in R and some requiring S-plus) are available on an associated website for performing computations related to the material in the final four chapters.

Virtually any random process developing chronologically can be viewed as a time series. In economics closing prices of stocks, the cost of money, the jobless rate, and retail sales are just a few examples of many. Developed from course notes and extensively classroom-tested, Applied Time Series Analysis with R, Second Edition includes examples across a variety of fields, develops theory, and provides an R-based software package to aid in addressing time series problems in a broad spectrum of fields. The material is organized in an optimal format for graduate students in statistics as well as in the natural and social sciences to learn to use and understand the tools of applied time series analysis. Features Gives readers the ability to actually solve significant real-world problems Addresses many types of nonstationary time series and cutting-edge methodologies Promotes understanding of the data and associated models rather than viewing it as the output of a "black box" Provides the R package tswge available on CRAN which contains functions and over 100 real and simulated data sets to accompany the book. Extensive help regarding the use of tswge functions is provided in appendices and on an associated website. Over 150 exercises and extensive support for instructors The second edition includes additional real-data examples, uses R-based code that helps students easily analyze data, generate realizations from models, and explore the associated characteristics. It also adds discussion of new advances in the analysis of long memory data and data with time-varying frequencies (TVF).

Written for those who need an introduction, Applied Time Series Analysis reviews applications of the popular econometric analysis technique across disciplines. Carefully balancing accessibility with rigor, it spans economics, finance, economic history, climatology, meteorology, and public health. Terence Mills provides a practical, step-by-step approach that emphasizes core theories and results without becoming bogged down by excessive technical details. Including univariate and multivariate techniques, Applied Time Series Analysis provides data sets and program files that support a broad range of multidisciplinary applications, distinguishing this book from others. Focuses on practical application of time series analysis, using step-by-step techniques and without excessive technical detail Supported by copious disciplinary examples, helping readers quickly adapt time series analysis to their area of study Covers both univariate and multivariate techniques in one volume Provides expert tips on, and helps mitigate common pitfalls of, powerful statistical software including EVIEWS and R Written in jargon-free and clear English from a master educator with 30 years+ experience explaining time series to novices Accompanied by a microsite with disciplinary data sets and files explaining how to build the calculations used in examples

Build efficient forecasting models using traditional time series models and machine learning algorithms. Key FeaturesPerform time series analysis and forecasting using R packages such as Forecast and h2oDevelop models and find patterns to create visualizations using the TSstudio and plotly packagesMaster statistics and implement time-series methods using examples mentionedBook Description Time series analysis is the art of extracting meaningful insights from, and revealing patterns in, time series data using statistical and data visualization approaches. These insights and patterns can then be utilized to explore past events and forecast future values in the series. This book explores the basics of time series analysis with R and lays the foundations you need to build forecasting models. You will learn how to preprocess raw time series data and clean and manipulate data with packages such as stats, lubridate, xts, and zoo. You will analyze data and extract meaningful information from it using both descriptive statistics and rich data visualization tools in R such as the TSstudio, plotly, and ggplot2 packages. The later section of the book delves into traditional forecasting models such as time series linear regression, exponential smoothing (Holt, Holt-Winter, and more) and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models with the stats and forecast packages. You'll also cover advanced time series regression models with machine learning algorithms such as Random Forest and Gradient Boosting Machine using the h2o package. By the end of this book, you will have the skills needed to explore your data, identify patterns, and build a forecasting model using various traditional and machine learning methods. What you will learnVisualize time series data and derive better insightsExplore auto-correlation and master statistical techniquesUse time series analysis tools from the stats, TSstudio, and forecast packagesExplore and identify seasonal and correlation patternsWork with different time series formats in RExplore time series models such as ARIMA, Holt-Winters, and moreEvaluate high-performance forecasting solutionsWho this book is for Hands-On Time Series Analysis with R is ideal for data analysts, data scientists, and all R developers who are looking to perform time series analysis to predict outcomes effectively. A basic knowledge of statistics is required; some knowledge in R is expected, but not mandatory.

The fourth edition of this popular graduate textbook, like its predecessors, presents a balanced and comprehensive treatment of both time and frequency domain methods with accompanying theory. Numerous examples using nontrivial data illustrate solutions to problems such as discovering natural and anthropogenic climate change, evaluating pain perception experiments using functional magnetic resonance imaging, and monitoring a nuclear test ban treaty. The book is designed as a textbook for graduate level students in the physical, biological, and social sciences and as a graduate level text in statistics. Some parts may also serve as an undergraduate introductory course. Theory and methodology are separated to allow presentations on different levels. In addition to coverage of classical methods of time series regression, ARIMA models, spectral analysis and state-space models, the text includes modern developments including categorical time series analysis, multivariate spectral methods, long memory series, nonlinear models, resampling techniques, GARCH models, ARMAX models, stochastic volatility, wavelets, and Markov chain Monte Carlo integration methods. This edition includes R code for each numerical example in addition to Appendix R, which provides a reference for the data sets and R scripts used in the text in addition to a tutorial on basic R commands and R time series. An additional file is available on the book’s website for download, making all the data sets and scripts easy to load into R.

This book presents an accessible approach to understanding time series models and their applications. The ideas and methods are illustrated with both real and simulated data sets. A unique feature of this edition is its integration with the R computing environment.