Asia 2050

Asia is in the midst of a truly historic transformation. If it continues to grow on its recent trajectory, it could, by 2050, account for more than half of global GDP, trade and investment, and enjoy widespread affluence. Its per capita income could rise sixfold. It thus holds the promise of making some 4 billion Asians, hitherto commonly associated with poverty and deprivation, affluent by today's standards. This study, Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century, is aimed at key opinion makers to foster debate on a vision of and strategy for Asia's potentially historic rise among the global comm.

This study, Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century, is aimed at key opinion makers to foster debate on a vision of and strategy for Asia's potentially historic rise among the global community of nations between now and 2050. It offers a long-term perspective of the Asia region as a whole as opposed to the more common approach that delivers a short- to medium-term perspective of selected countries, subregions or issues.

This book is open access under a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. This book is arranged and developed around the theme of “2050 China,” it analyzes the factors and advantages of the Chinese road to socialist modernization, explores and summarizes the development goal and the basic logic of the socialist modernization of China, and further shows the general basis of the primary stage of socialism. According to the report delivered at the 19th Party Congress, and according to the “two-stage” strategic plan, this book looks ahead in detail to the overarching objective and sub-objectives of essentially achieving socialist modernization by 2035, discusses the building of a great modern socialist country in all respects from the perspective of the Party’s six-sphere integrated plan of economic, political, cultural, social, ecological civilization, and national defense construction, and provides policy proposals. This book also analyzes the influence and the effect of the socialist modernization with Chinese characteristics on the world and it further presents the third centenary goal. In conclusion, this book is an elaboration of the work of the Institute for Contemporary China Studies, Tsinghua University. It reflects the intellectual innovation in the authors’ research on contemporary China, as well as the authors’ foresight and predictions about China’s future development.

As the effects of climate change set in, and population and income growth exert increasing pressure on natural resources, food security is becoming a pressing challenge for countries worldwide. Awareness of these threats is critical to transforming concern into long-term planning, and modeling tools like the one used in the present study are beneficial for strategic support of decision making in the agricultural policy arena. The focus of this investigation is the Republic of Korea, where economic growth has resulted in large shifts in diet in recent decades, in parallel with a decline in both arable land and agricultural production, and a tripling of agricultural imports, compared to the early 2000s. Although these are recognized as traits of a rapidly growing economy, officials and experts in the country recognize that the trends expose the Republic of Korea to climate change shocks and fluctuations in the global food market. This study uses the IMPACT (International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade) economic model to investigate possible future trends of both domestic food production and dependence on food imports, as well as the effects from adoption of agricultural practices consistent with a climate change adaptation strategy. The goal is to help assess the prospects for sustaining improvements in food security and possibly inform the national debate on agricultural policy. Results show that historical trends of harvested area and imports may continue into the future under climate change. Although crop models suggest negative long-term impacts of climate change on rice yield in the Republic of Korea, the economic model simulations show that intrinsic productivity growth and market effects have the potential to limit the magnitude of losses; rice production and yield are projected to keep growing between 2010 and 2050, with a larger boost when adoption of improved technologies is taken into consideration. At the same time, food production and net exports from the country’s major trading partners are also projected to increase, although diminished by climate change effects. In sum, these results show that kilocalorie availability will keep growing in the Republic of Korea, and although climate change may have some impact by reducing the overall availability, the effect does not appear strong enough to have significant consequences on projected trends of increasing food security.

This report synthesizes the results of country and sector studies on the economic costs and benefits of unilateral and regional actions on climate change in the Asian Development Bank's six South Asia developing members, namely Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. The study takes into account the different scenarios and impacts projected across vulnerable sectors and estimates the total economic loss throughout the 21st century and amount of funding required for adaptation measures to avert such potential losses. It is envisioned to strengthen decision-making capacities and improve understanding of the economics of climate change for the countries in South Asia.

Asia and the Pacific continues to be exposed to climate change impacts. Home to the majority of the world's poor, the population of the region is particularly vulnerable to those impacts. Unabated warming could largely diminish previous achievements of economic development and improvements, putting the future of the region at risk. Read the most recent projections pertaining to climate change and climate change impacts in Asia and the Pacific, and the consequences of these changes to human systems, particularly for developing countries. This report also highlights gaps in the existing knowledge and identifies avenues for continued research.

Where is the world heading? What choices need to be made to help humanity to thrive? These questions are more acute than ever in a context of growing inequalities, populism, social disorder, environmental challenges, and global health threats.The Future of the Global Order explores the six fundamental transformations ahead that will define the future of the world in the next three decades. Each chapter provides a unique and fact-based analysis of the situation at hand, reviews underlying uncertainties, and studies their inter-dependencies. As a tool to trigger debate, the book provides possible evolutions in global activity with four baseline scenarios, grasping the key issues which will shape the global order to 2050.Essential reading for anyone interested in understanding the massive forces of global change at play and the key decisions facing the future of humanity and the world.