Assessing Debt Sustainability In Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods
Download Assessing Debt Sustainability In Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online free Assessing Debt Sustainability In Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!
Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods
Author | : Doug Hostland,Philippe D Karam |
Publsiher | : World Bank Publications |
Total Pages | : 34 |
Release | : 2006 |
Genre | : Electronic Book |
ISBN | : 9182736450XXX |
Download Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This paper applies stochastic simulation methods to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies and provide probability measures for projections of the external and public debt burden over the medium term. The vulnerability of public debt to adverse shocks is determined by a number of interrelated factors, including the volatility of output, financial fragility, the endogenous response of the risk premium, and sudden stops in private capital flows. The vulnerability of external debt is sensitive to the determination of the exchange rate and to the pricing of traded goods. We show that fiscal policy can act in a preemptive manner to prevent the debt burden from rising significantly over the medium term. This requires flexibility in fiscal planning, which many emerging market economies lack. Emerging market economies therefore face a difficult trade-off between managing the risk of a debt crisis and pursuing other important fiscal policy objectives.
Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods
Author | : Mr.Philippe D Karam,Mr.Douglas Hostland |
Publsiher | : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND |
Total Pages | : 36 |
Release | : 2005-12-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451862458 |
Download Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This paper applies stochastic simulation methods to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies and provide probability measures for projections of the external and public debt burden over the medium term. The vulnerability of public debt to adverse shocks is determined by a number of interrelated factors, including the volatility of output, financial fragility, the endogenous response of the risk premium, and sudden stops in private capital flows. The vulnerability of external debt is sensitive to the determination of the exchange rate and to the pricing of traded goods. We show that fiscal policy can act in a preemptive manner to prevent the debt burden from rising significantly over the medium term. This requires flexibility in fiscal planning, which many emerging market economies lack. Emerging market economies therefore face a difficult trade-off between managing the risk of a debt crisis and pursuing other important fiscal policy objectives.
Specification of a Stochastic Simulation Model for Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies
Author | : Philippe D Karam,Doug Hostland |
Publsiher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 40 |
Release | : 2006-12 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : UCSD:31822034756957 |
Download Specification of a Stochastic Simulation Model for Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This paper documents the specification of a model that was constructed to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies. Key features of the model include external and fiscal sectors, which allow assessment of external and public debt in a unified framework; public and external debt, which both have an explicit maturity structure along with a distinction between denomination in domestic versus foreign currency to facilitate debt management analysis; monetary and fiscal policy, which are endogenous and specified using explicit forward-looking policy rules; an endogenous risk premium on public and external debt; and a mechanism for invoking a sudden stop in private capital flows. The paper provides an overview of the basic structure of the model, outlines the methodology used to calibrate the parameters, and illustrates the key properties of the model with reference to dynamic responses of selected variables to shocks of interest.
Fiscal Sustainability
Author | : Mr.Evan Tanner |
Publsiher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 49 |
Release | : 2013-04-22 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9781484381991 |
Download Fiscal Sustainability Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This paper critically reviews recent work regarding the sustainability of public debt. It argues that Debt Sustainability Analyses (DSAs) should be more than mere mechanical simulation exercises. Instead, a DSA should be linked to some objective regarding the distribution of fiscal burdens and distortions over time (in the tradition of Barro’s 1979 tax smoothing objective). The paper discusses objective functions that yield simple and transparent fiscal policy rules.
IMF Staff Papers Volume 55 No 1
Author | : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. |
Publsiher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 220 |
Release | : 2008-06-18 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9781589067226 |
Download IMF Staff Papers Volume 55 No 1 Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
In this issue, a team of economists look at approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or permanent phenomenon. Era Dabla-Norris and Gabriela Inchauste examine what drives the growth of firms, with a focus on informality and regulations. Evan Tanner and Issouf Samake use a vector autoregression approach to examine the probabilistic sustainability of public debt in Brazil. Mexico, and Turkey. And Rachel Glennerster and Yongseok Shin ask whether transparency pays?that is, does the frequency and accuracy of macroeconomic information released to the public lead to lower borrowing costs in sovereign debt markets?
OECD Economic Surveys Turkey 2006
Author | : OECD |
Publsiher | : OECD Publishing |
Total Pages | : 196 |
Release | : 2006-12-13 |
Genre | : Electronic Book |
ISBN | : 9789264029170 |
Download OECD Economic Surveys Turkey 2006 Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This edition of OECD's periodic survey of the Turkish economy presents an overview of recent economic performance and its outlook and examines how to enhance competitiveness and growth.
Commodities Governance and Economic Development under Globalization
Author | : Machiko Nissanke,George Mavrotas |
Publsiher | : Springer |
Total Pages | : 368 |
Release | : 2010-01-20 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9780230274020 |
Download Commodities Governance and Economic Development under Globalization Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Alfred Maizels' work on commodity trade and prices documented trends in a major area of international economic relations. This book elaborates the ideas in the tradition of Maizels' contributons, and discusses and extends these theories in relation to current problems.
Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt
Author | : Issouf Samaké,Mr.Evan Tanner |
Publsiher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 44 |
Release | : 2006-12-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9781451865554 |
Download Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition shows by how much debt accumulation reflects unsustainable policy, adverse shocks, or both. Prospectively, Monte Carlo techniques reveal the primary surplus that is required to keep the debt/GDP ratio from rising in all but the worst 50 percent, 25 percent, and 10 percent of circumstances. Such a value-at-risk approach presents a clearer menu of policy options than currently used frameworks.