Assessing The Reliability Of Complex Models

Advances in computing hardware and algorithms have dramatically improved the ability to simulate complex processes computationally. Today's simulation capabilities offer the prospect of addressing questions that in the past could be addressed only by resource-intensive experimentation, if at all. Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models recognizes the ubiquity of uncertainty in computational estimates of reality and the necessity for its quantification. As computational science and engineering have matured, the process of quantifying or bounding uncertainties in a computational estimate of a physical quality of interest has evolved into a small set of interdependent tasks: verification, validation, and uncertainty of quantification (VVUQ). In recognition of the increasing importance of computational simulation and the increasing need to assess uncertainties in computational results, the National Research Council was asked to study the mathematical foundations of VVUQ and to recommend steps that will ultimately lead to improved processes. Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models discusses changes in education of professionals and dissemination of information that should enhance the ability of future VVUQ practitioners to improve and properly apply VVUQ methodologies to difficult problems, enhance the ability of VVUQ customers to understand VVUQ results and use them to make informed decisions, and enhance the ability of all VVUQ stakeholders to communicate with each other. This report is an essential resource for all decision and policy makers in the field, students, stakeholders, UQ experts, and VVUQ educators and practitioners.

The papers in this volume present theoretical insights and report practical applications both for neural networks, genetic algorithms and evolutionary computation. In the field of natural computing, swarm optimization, bioinformatics and computational biology contributions are no less compelling. A wide selection of contributions report applications of neural networks to process engineering, robotics and control. Contributions also abound in the field of evolutionary computation particularly in combinatorial and optimization problems. Many papers are dedicated to machine learning and heuristics, hybrid intelligent systems and soft computing applications. Some papers are devoted to quantum computation. In addition, kernel based algorithms, able to solve tasks other than classification, represent a revolution in pattern recognition bridging existing gaps. Further topics are intelligent signal processing and computer vision.

This book presents essential methods and tools for research into the reliability of energy systems. It describes in detail the content setting, formalisation, and use of algorithms for assessing the reliability of modern, large, and complex electric power systems. The book uses a wealth of tables and illustrations to represent results and source information in a clear manner. It discusses the main operating conditions which affect the reliability of electric power systems, and describes corresponding computing tools which can help solve issues as they arise. Further, all methodologies presented here are demonstrated in numerical examples. Though primarily intended for researchers and practitioners in the field of electric power systems, the book will also benefit general readers interested in this area.

Tobacco consumption continues to be the leading cause of preventable disease and death in the United States. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulates the manufacture, distribution, and marketing of tobacco products - specifically cigarettes, cigarette tobacco, roll-your-own tobacco, and smokeless tobacco - to protect public health and reduce tobacco use in the United States. Given the strong social component inherent to tobacco use onset, cessation, and relapse, and given the heterogeneity of those social interactions, agent-based models have the potential to be an essential tool in assessing the effects of policies to control tobacco. Assessing the Use of Agent-Based Models for Tobacco Regulation describes the complex tobacco environment; discusses the usefulness of agent-based models to inform tobacco policy and regulation; presents an evaluation framework for policy-relevant agent-based models; examines the role and type of data needed to develop agent-based models for tobacco regulation; provides an assessment of the agent-based model developed for FDA; and offers strategies for using agent-based models to inform decision making in the future.

A practical, hands-on approach to power distribution system reliability As power distribution systems age, the frequency and duration of consumer interruptions will increase significantly. Now more than ever, it is crucial for students and professionals in the electrical power industries to have a solid understanding of designing the reliable and cost-effective utility, industrial, and commercial power distribution systems needed to maintain life activities (e.g., computers, lighting, heating, cooling, etc.). This books fills the void in the literature by providing readers with everything they need to know to make the best design decisions for new and existing power distribution systems, as well as to make quantitative "cost vs. reliability" trade-off studies. Topical coverage includes: Engineering economics Reliability analysis of complex network configurations Designing reliability into industrial and commercial power systems Application of zone branch reliability methodology Equipment outage statistics Deterministic planning criteria Customer interruption for cost models for load-point reliability assessment Isolation and restoration procedures And much more Each chapter begins with an introduction and ends with a conclusion and a list of references for further reading. Additionally, the book contains actual utility and industrial power system design problems worked out with real examples, as well as additional problem sets and their solutions. Power Distribution System Reliability is essential reading for practicing engineers, researchers, technicians, and advanced undergraduate and graduate students in electrical power industries.

This book presents the state-of-the-art methodology and detailed analytical models and methods used to assess the reliability of complex systems and related applications in statistical reliability engineering. It is a textbook based mainly on the author’s recent research and publications as well as experience of over 30 years in this field. The book covers a wide range of methods and models in reliability, and their applications, including: statistical methods and model selection for machine learning; models for maintenance and software reliability; statistical reliability estimation of complex systems; and statistical reliability analysis of k out of n systems, standby systems and repairable systems. Offering numerous examples and solved problems within each chapter, this comprehensive text provides an introduction to reliability engineering graduate students, a reference for data scientists and reliability engineers, and a thorough guide for researchers and instructors in the field.

The safe and reliable performance of many systems with which we interact daily has been achieved through the analysis and management of risk. From complex infrastructures to consumer durables, from engineering systems and technologies used in transportation, health, energy, chemical, oil, gas, aerospace, maritime, defence and other sectors, the management of risk during design, manufacture, operation and decommissioning is vital. Methods and models to support risk-informed decision-making are well established but are continually challenged by technology innovations, increasing interdependencies, and changes in societal expectations. Risk, Reliability and Safety contains papers describing innovations in theory and practice contributed to the scientific programme of the European Safety and Reliability conference (ESREL 2016), held at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, Scotland (25—29 September 2016). Authors include scientists, academics, practitioners, regulators and other key individuals with expertise and experience relevant to specific areas. Papers include domain specific applications as well as general modelling methods. Papers cover evaluation of contemporary solutions, exploration of future challenges, and exposition of concepts, methods and processes. Topics include human factors, occupational health and safety, dynamic and systems reliability modelling, maintenance optimisation, uncertainty analysis, resilience assessment, risk and crisis management.

Engineering Reliability and Risk Assessment explains how to improve the performance of a system using the latest risk and reliability models. Against a backdrop of increasing availability of industrial data, and ever-increasing global commercial competition, the standards for optimal efficiency with minimum hazards keep improving. Topics explained include Effective strategies for the maintenance of the mechanical components of a system, How to schedule necessary interventions throughout the product life cycle, How to understand the structure and cost of complex systems, Planning a schedule to improve the reliability and life of the system, software, system safety and risk informed asset management, and more. Uses case studies from industry practice to explain innovative solutions to real world risk assessment problems Addresses the full interdisciplinary range of topics that influence this complex field Provides brief introductions to important concepts, including risk and reliability analysis and fuzzy reliability