Asymptotic Optimal Inference For Non Ergodic Models

This monograph contains a comprehensive account of the recent work of the authors and other workers on large sample optimal inference for non-ergodic models. The non-ergodic family of models can be viewed as an extension of the usual Fisher-Rao model for asymptotics, referred to here as an ergodic family. The main feature of a non-ergodic model is that the sample Fisher information, appropriately normed, converges to a non-degenerate random variable rather than to a constant. Mixture experiments, growth models such as birth processes, branching processes, etc. , and non-stationary diffusion processes are typical examples of non-ergodic models for which the usual asymptotics and the efficiency criteria of the Fisher-Rao-Wald type are not directly applicable. The new model necessitates a thorough review of both technical and qualitative aspects of the asymptotic theory. The general model studied includes both ergodic and non-ergodic families even though we emphasise applications of the latter type. The plan to write the monograph originally evolved through a series of lectures given by the first author in a graduate seminar course at Cornell University during the fall of 1978, and by the second author at the University of Munich during the fall of 1979. Further work during 1979-1981 on the topic has resolved many of the outstanding conceptual and technical difficulties encountered previously. While there are still some gaps remaining, it appears that the mainstream development in the area has now taken a more definite shape.

This volume in the series contains chapters on areas such as pareto processes, branching processes, inference in stochastic processes, Poisson approximation, Levy processes, and iterated random maps and some classes of Markov processes. Other chapters cover random walk and fluctuation theory, a semigroup representation and asymptomatic behavior of certain statistics of the Fisher-Wright-Moran coalescent, continuous-time ARMA processes, record sequence and their applications, stochastic networks with product form equilibrium, and stochastic processes in insurance and finance. Other subjects include renewal theory, stochastic processes in reliability, supports of stochastic processes of multiplicity one, Markov chains, diffusion processes, and Ito's stochastic calculus and its applications. c. Book News Inc.

This volume provides an exposition of some fundamental aspects of the asymptotic theory of statistical experiments. The most important of them is “how to construct asymptotically optimal decisions if we know the structure of optimal decisions for the limit experiment”. Contents:Statistical Experiments and Their ComparisonConvergence of Statistical Experiments(γ,Γ)-Models. Convergence to (γ,Γ)-ModelsLocal Convergence of Statistical Experiments and Global EstimationStatistical Inference for Autoregressive Models of the First Order Readership: Researchers in probability and statistics. Keywords:Comparison of Statistical Experiments;Mixed Local Asymptotic Normality;Convergence of Experiments;Likelihood Ratio Processes;Contiguity;Autoregressive Models;Minimax Bound;Local Asymptotic NormalityReviews: “It is an interesting, welcome addition to the literature, and it contains many new insights. I congratulate the authors for writing this comprehensive monograph on a difficult subject.” Mathematical Reviews “The book is a highlight in modern mathematical statistics which offers a lot of new concepts. It recalls the brilliant methodology of Le Cam's Theory and the first chapters may be used as introduction into this field.” Mathematics Abstracts

This textbook is devoted to the general asymptotic theory of statistical experiments. Local asymptotics for statistical models in the sense of local asymptotic (mixed) normality or local asymptotic quadraticity make up the core of the book. Numerous examples deal with classical independent and identically distributed models and with stochastic processes. The book can be read in different ways, according to possibly different mathematical preferences of the reader. One reader may focus on the statistical theory, and thus on the chapters about Gaussian shift models, mixed normal and quadratic models, and on local asymptotics where the limit model is a Gaussian shift or a mixed normal or a quadratic experiment (LAN, LAMN, LAQ). Another reader may prefer an introduction to stochastic process models where given statistical results apply, and thus concentrate on subsections or chapters on likelihood ratio processes and some diffusion type models where LAN, LAMN or LAQ occurs. Finally, readers might put together both aspects. The book is suitable for graduate students starting to work in statistics of stochastic processes, as well as for researchers interested in a precise introduction to this area.

A comprehensive account of the statistical theory of exponential families of stochastic processes. The book reviews the progress in the field made over the last ten years or so by the authors - two of the leading experts in the field - and several other researchers. The theory is applied to a broad spectrum of examples, covering a large number of frequently applied stochastic process models with discrete as well as continuous time. To make the reading even easier for statisticians with only a basic background in the theory of stochastic process, the first part of the book is based on classical theory of stochastic processes only, while stochastic calculus is used later. Most of the concepts and tools from stochastic calculus needed when working with inference for stochastic processes are introduced and explained without proof in an appendix. This appendix can also be used independently as an introduction to stochastic calculus for statisticians. Numerous exercises are also included.

Our book Asymptotic Techniquesfor Use in Statistics was originally planned as an account of asymptotic statistical theory, but by the time we had completed the mathematical preliminaries it seemed best to publish these separately. The present book, although largely self-contained, takes up the original theme and gives a systematic account of some recent developments in asymptotic parametric inference from a likelihood-based perspective. Chapters 1-4 are relatively elementary and provide first a review of key concepts such as likelihood, sufficiency, conditionality, ancillarity, exponential families and transformation models. Then first-order asymptotic theory is set out, followed by a discussion of the need for higher-order theory. This is then developed in some generality in Chapters 5-8. A final chapter deals briefly with some more specialized issues. The discussion emphasizes concepts and techniques rather than precise mathematical verifications with full attention to regularity conditions and, especially in the less technical chapters, draws quite heavily on illustrative examples. Each chapter ends with outline further results and exercises and with bibliographic notes. Many parts of the field discussed in this book are undergoing rapid further development, and in those parts the book therefore in some respects has more the flavour of a progress report than an exposition of a largely completed theory.