Bayesian Analysis With R For Drug Development

Drug development is an iterative process. The recent publications of regulatory guidelines further entail a lifecycle approach. Blending data from disparate sources, the Bayesian approach provides a flexible framework for drug development. Despite its advantages, the uptake of Bayesian methodologies is lagging behind in the field of pharmaceutical development. Written specifically for pharmaceutical practitioners, Bayesian Analysis with R for Drug Development: Concepts, Algorithms, and Case Studies, describes a wide range of Bayesian applications to problems throughout pre-clinical, clinical, and Chemistry, Manufacturing, and Control (CMC) development. Authored by two seasoned statisticians in the pharmaceutical industry, the book provides detailed Bayesian solutions to a broad array of pharmaceutical problems. Features Provides a single source of information on Bayesian statistics for drug development Covers a wide spectrum of pre-clinical, clinical, and CMC topics Demonstrates proper Bayesian applications using real-life examples Includes easy-to-follow R code with Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo performed in both JAGS and Stan Bayesian software platforms Offers sufficient background for each problem and detailed description of solutions suitable for practitioners with limited Bayesian knowledge Harry Yang, Ph.D., is Senior Director and Head of Statistical Sciences at AstraZeneca. He has 24 years of experience across all aspects of drug research and development and extensive global regulatory experiences. He has published 6 statistical books, 15 book chapters, and over 90 peer-reviewed papers on diverse scientific and statistical subjects, including 15 joint statistical works with Dr. Novick. He is a frequent invited speaker at national and international conferences. He also developed statistical courses and conducted training at the FDA and USP as well as Peking University. Steven Novick, Ph.D., is Director of Statistical Sciences at AstraZeneca. He has extensively contributed statistical methods to the biopharmaceutical literature. Novick is a skilled Bayesian computer programmer and is frequently invited to speak at conferences, having developed and taught courses in several areas, including drug-combination analysis and Bayesian methods in clinical areas. Novick served on IPAC-RS and has chaired several national statistical conferences.

The cost for bringing new medicine from discovery to market has nearly doubled in the last decade and has now reached $2.6 billion. There is an urgent need to make drug development less time-consuming and less costly. Innovative trial designs/ analyses such as the Bayesian approach are essential to meet this need. This book will be the first to provide comprehensive coverage of Bayesian applications across the span of drug development, from discovery, to clinical trial, to manufacturing with practical examples. This book will have a wide appeal to statisticians, scientists, and physicians working in drug development who are motivated to accelerate and streamline the drug development process, as well as students who aspire to work in this field. The advantages of this book are: Provides motivating, worked, practical case examples with easy to grasp models, technical details, and computational codes to run the analyses Balances practical examples with best practices on trial simulation and reporting, as well as regulatory perspectives Chapters written by authors who are individual contributors in their respective topics Dr. Mani Lakshminarayanan is a researcher and statistical consultant with more than 30 years of experience in the pharmaceutical industry. He has published over 50 articles, technical reports, and book chapters besides serving as a referee for several journals. He has a PhD in Statistics from Southern Methodist University, Dallas, Texas and is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association. Dr. Fanni Natanegara has over 15 years of pharmaceutical experience and is currently Principal Research Scientist and Group Leader for the Early Phase Neuroscience Statistics team at Eli Lilly and Company. She played a key role in the Advanced Analytics team to provide Bayesian education and statistical consultation at Eli Lilly. Dr. Natanegara is the chair of the cross industry-regulatory-academic DIA BSWG to ensure that Bayesian methods are appropriately utilized for design and analysis throughout the drug-development process.

Since the early 2000s, there has been increasing interest within the pharmaceutical industry in the application of Bayesian methods at various stages of the research, development, manufacturing, and health economic evaluation of new health care interventions. In 2010, the first Applied Bayesian Biostatistics conference was held, with the primary objective to stimulate the practical implementation of Bayesian statistics, and to promote the added-value for accelerating the discovery and the delivery of new cures to patients. This book is a synthesis of the conferences and debates, providing an overview of Bayesian methods applied to nearly all stages of research and development, from early discovery to portfolio management. It highlights the value associated with sharing a vision with the regulatory authorities, academia, and pharmaceutical industry, with a view to setting up a common strategy for the appropriate use of Bayesian statistics for the benefit of patients. The book covers: Theory, methods, applications, and computing Bayesian biostatistics for clinical innovative designs Adding value with Real World Evidence Opportunities for rare, orphan diseases, and pediatric development Applied Bayesian biostatistics in manufacturing Decision making and Portfolio management Regulatory perspective and public health policies Statisticians and data scientists involved in the research, development, and approval of new cures will be inspired by the possible applications of Bayesian methods covered in the book. The methods, applications, and computational guidance will enable the reader to apply Bayesian methods in their own pharmaceutical research.

This book focuses on the analysis of dose-response microarray data in pharmaceutical settings, the goal being to cover this important topic for early drug development experiments and to provide user-friendly R packages that can be used to analyze this data. It is intended for biostatisticians and bioinformaticians in the pharmaceutical industry, biologists, and biostatistics/bioinformatics graduate students. Part I of the book is an introduction, in which we discuss the dose-response setting and the problem of estimating normal means under order restrictions. In particular, we discuss the pooled-adjacent-violator (PAV) algorithm and isotonic regression, as well as inference under order restrictions and non-linear parametric models, which are used in the second part of the book. Part II is the core of the book, in which we focus on the analysis of dose-response microarray data. Methodological topics discussed include: • Multiplicity adjustment • Test statistics and procedures for the analysis of dose-response microarray data • Resampling-based inference and use of the SAM method for small-variance genes in the data • Identification and classification of dose-response curve shapes • Clustering of order-restricted (but not necessarily monotone) dose-response profiles • Gene set analysis to facilitate the interpretation of microarray results • Hierarchical Bayesian models and Bayesian variable selection • Non-linear models for dose-response microarray data • Multiple contrast tests • Multiple confidence intervals for selected parameters adjusted for the false coverage-statement rate All methodological issues in the book are illustrated using real-world examples of dose-response microarray datasets from early drug development experiments.

Real-world evidence (RWE) has been at the forefront of pharmaceutical innovations. It plays an important role in transforming drug development from a process aimed at meeting regulatory expectations to an operating model that leverages data from disparate sources to aid business, regulatory, and healthcare decision making. Despite its many benefits, there is no single book systematically covering the latest development in the field. Written specifically for pharmaceutical practitioners, Real-World Evidence in Drug Development and Evaluation, presents a wide range of RWE applications throughout the lifecycle of drug product development. With contributions from experienced researchers in the pharmaceutical industry, the book discusses at length RWE opportunities, challenges, and solutions. Features Provides the first book and a single source of information on RWE in drug development Covers a broad array of topics on outcomes- and value-based RWE assessments Demonstrates proper Bayesian application and causal inference for real-world data (RWD) Presents real-world use cases to illustrate the use of advanced analytics and statistical methods to generate insights Offers a balanced discussion of practical RWE issues at hand and technical solutions suitable for practitioners with limited data science expertise

Too often in biostatistical research and clinical trials, a knowledge gap exists between developed statistical methods and the applications of these methods. Filling this gap, Clinical Trial Data Analysis Using R provides a thorough presentation of biostatistical analyses of clinical trial data and shows step by step how to implement the statistical methods using R. The book’s practical, detailed approach draws on the authors’ 30 years of real-world experience in biostatistical research and clinical development. Each chapter presents examples of clinical trials based on the authors’ actual experiences in clinical drug development. Various biostatistical methods for analyzing the data are then identified. The authors develop analysis code step by step using appropriate R packages and functions. This approach enables readers to gain an understanding of the analysis methods and R implementation so that they can use R to analyze their own clinical trial data. With step-by-step illustrations of R implementations, this book shows how to easily use R to simulate and analyze data from a clinical trial. It describes numerous up-to-date statistical methods and offers sound guidance on the processes involved in clinical trials.

Statistical Issues in Drug Development The revised third edition of Statistical Issues in Drug Development delivers an insightful treatment of the intersection between statistics and the life sciences. The book offers readers new discussions of crucial topics, including cluster randomization, historical controls, responder analysis, studies in children, post-hoc tests, estimands, publication bias, the replication crisis, and many more. This work presents the major statistical issues in drug development in a way that is accessible and comprehensible to life scientists working in the field, and takes pains not to gloss over significant disagreements in the field of statistics, while encouraging communication between the statistical and life sciences disciplines. In addition to new material on topics like invalid inversion, severity, random effects in network meta-analysis, and explained variation, readers will benefit from the inclusion of: A thorough introduction to basic topics in drug development and statistics, including the role played by statistics in drug development An exploration of the four views of statistics in drug development, including the historical, methodological, technical, and professional An examination of debatable and controversial topics in drug development, including the allocation of treatments to patients in clinical trials, baselines and covariate information, and the measurement of treatment effects Perfect for life scientists and other professionals working in the field of drug development, Statistical Issues in Drug Development is the ideal resource for anyone seeking a one-stop reference to enhance their understanding of the use of statistics during drug development.

Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice. New to the Third Edition Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling Coverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priors Updated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteria Improved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulation Presentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagation New and revised software code The book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book’s web page.