Bayesian Methods For The Physical Sciences

Statistical literacy is critical for the modern researcher in Physics and Astronomy. This book empowers researchers in these disciplines by providing the tools they will need to analyze their own data. Chapters in this book provide a statistical base from which to approach new problems, including numerical advice and a profusion of examples. The examples are engaging analyses of real-world problems taken from modern astronomical research. The examples are intended to be starting points for readers as they learn to approach their own data and research questions. Acknowledging that scientific progress now hinges on the availability of data and the possibility to improve previous analyses, data and code are distributed throughout the book. The JAGS symbolic language used throughout the book makes it easy to perform Bayesian analysis and is particularly valuable as readers may use it in a myriad of scenarios through slight modifications. This book is comprehensive, well written, and will surely be regarded as a standard text in both astrostatistics and physical statistics. Joseph M. Hilbe, President, International Astrostatistics Association, Professor Emeritus, University of Hawaii, and Adjunct Professor of Statistics, Arizona State University

Bayesian inference provides a simple and unified approach to data analysis, allowing experimenters to assign probabilities to competing hypotheses of interest, on the basis of the current state of knowledge. By incorporating relevant prior information, it can sometimes improve model parameter estimates by many orders of magnitude. This book provides a clear exposition of the underlying concepts with many worked examples and problem sets. It also discusses implementation, including an introduction to Markov chain Monte-Carlo integration and linear and nonlinear model fitting. Particularly extensive coverage of spectral analysis (detecting and measuring periodic signals) includes a self-contained introduction to Fourier and discrete Fourier methods. There is a chapter devoted to Bayesian inference with Poisson sampling, and three chapters on frequentist methods help to bridge the gap between the frequentist and Bayesian approaches. Supporting Mathematica® notebooks with solutions to selected problems, additional worked examples, and a Mathematica tutorial are available at www.cambridge.org/9780521150125.

Covering all aspects of probability theory, statistics and data analysis from a Bayesian perspective for graduate students and researchers.

This book introduces the major concepts of probability and statistics, along with the necessary computational tools, for undergraduates and graduate students.

The first edition of Bayesian Methods: A Social and Behavioral Sciences Approach helped pave the way for Bayesian approaches to become more prominent in social science methodology. While the focus remains on practical modeling and basic theory as well as on intuitive explanations and derivations without skipping steps, this second edition incorporates the latest methodology and recent changes in software offerings. New to the Second Edition Two chapters on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) that cover ergodicity, convergence, mixing, simulated annealing, reversible jump MCMC, and coupling Expanded coverage of Bayesian linear and hierarchical models More technical and philosophical details on prior distributions A dedicated R package (BaM) with data and code for the examples as well as a set of functions for practical purposes such as calculating highest posterior density (HPD) intervals Requiring only a basic working knowledge of linear algebra and calculus, this text is one of the few to offer a graduate-level introduction to Bayesian statistics for social scientists. It first introduces Bayesian statistics and inference, before moving on to assess model quality and fit. Subsequent chapters examine hierarchical models within a Bayesian context and explore MCMC techniques and other numerical methods. Concentrating on practical computing issues, the author includes specific details for Bayesian model building and testing and uses the R and BUGS software for examples and exercises.

Maximum entropy and Bayesian methods have fundamental, central roles in scientific inference, and, with the growing availability of computer power, are being successfully applied in an increasing number of applications in many disciplines. This volume contains selected papers presented at the Thirteenth International Workshop on Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods. It includes an extensive tutorial section, and a variety of contributions detailing application in the physical sciences, engineering, law, and economics. Audience: Researchers and other professionals whose work requires the application of practical statistical inference.

This volume of Methods of Experimental Physics provides an extensive introduction to probability and statistics in many areas of the physical sciences, with an emphasis on the emerging area of spatial statistics. The scope of topics covered is wide-ranging-the text discusses a variety of the most commonly used classical methods and addresses newer methods that are applicable or potentially important. The chapter authors motivate readers with their insightful discussions. Examines basic probability, including coverage of standard distributions, time series models, and Monte Carlo methods Describes statistical methods, including basic inference, goodness of fit, maximum likelihood, and least squares Addresses time series analysis, including filtering and spectral analysis Includes simulations of physical experiments Features applications of statistics to atmospheric physics and radio astronomy Covers the increasingly important area of modern statistical computing