Bayesian Modeling Of Spatio Temporal Data With R

Applied sciences, both physical and social, such as atmospheric, biological, climate, demographic, economic, ecological, environmental, oceanic and political, routinely gather large volumes of spatial and spatio-temporal data in order to make wide ranging inference and prediction. Ideally such inferential tasks should be approached through modelling, which aids in estimation of uncertainties in all conclusions drawn from such data. Unified Bayesian modelling, implemented through user friendly software packages, provides a crucial key to unlocking the full power of these methods for solving challenging practical problems. Key features of the book: • Accessible detailed discussion of a majority of all aspects of Bayesian methods and computations with worked examples, numerical illustrations and exercises • A spatial statistics jargon buster chapter that enables the reader to build up a vocabulary without getting clouded in modeling and technicalities • Computation and modeling illustrations are provided with the help of the dedicated R package bmstdr, allowing the reader to use well-known packages and platforms, such as rstan, INLA, spBayes, spTimer, spTDyn, CARBayes, CARBayesST, etc • Included are R code notes detailing the algorithms used to produce all the tables and figures, with data and code available via an online supplement • Two dedicated chapters discuss practical examples of spatio-temporal modeling of point referenced and areal unit data • Throughout, the emphasis has been on validating models by splitting data into test and training sets following on the philosophy of machine learning and data science This book is designed to make spatio-temporal modeling and analysis accessible and understandable to a wide audience of students and researchers, from mathematicians and statisticians to practitioners in the applied sciences. It presents most of the modeling with the help of R commands written in a purposefully developed R package to facilitate spatio-temporal modeling. It does not compromise on rigour, as it presents the underlying theories of Bayesian inference and computation in standalone chapters, which would be appeal those interested in the theoretical details. By avoiding hard core mathematics and calculus, this book aims to be a bridge that removes the statistical knowledge gap from among the applied scientists.

Applied sciences, both physical and social, such as atmospheric, biological, climate, demographic, economic, ecological, environmental, oceanic and political, routinely gather large volumes of spatial and spatio-temporal data in order to make wide ranging inference and prediction. Ideally such inferential tasks should be approached through modelling, which aids in estimation of uncertainties in all conclusions drawn from such data. Unified Bayesian modelling, implemented through user friendly software packages, provides a crucial key to unlocking the full power of these methods for solving challenging practical problems. Key features of the book: • Accessible detailed discussion of a majority of all aspects of Bayesian methods and computations with worked examples, numerical illustrations and exercises • A spatial statistics jargon buster chapter that enables the reader to build up a vocabulary without getting clouded in modeling and technicalities • Computation and modeling illustrations are provided with the help of the dedicated R package bmstdr, allowing the reader to use well-known packages and platforms, such as rstan, INLA, spBayes, spTimer, spTDyn, CARBayes, CARBayesST, etc • Included are R code notes detailing the algorithms used to produce all the tables and figures, with data and code available via an online supplement • Two dedicated chapters discuss practical examples of spatio-temporal modeling of point referenced and areal unit data • Throughout, the emphasis has been on validating models by splitting data into test and training sets following on the philosophy of machine learning and data science This book is designed to make spatio-temporal modeling and analysis accessible and understandable to a wide audience of students and researchers, from mathematicians and statisticians to practitioners in the applied sciences. It presents most of the modeling with the help of R commands written in a purposefully developed R package to facilitate spatio-temporal modeling. It does not compromise on rigour, as it presents the underlying theories of Bayesian inference and computation in standalone chapters, which would be appeal those interested in the theoretical details. By avoiding hard core mathematics and calculus, this book aims to be a bridge that removes the statistical knowledge gap from among the applied scientists.

Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Bayesian Models with R-INLA provides a much needed, practically oriented & innovative presentation of the combination of Bayesian methodology and spatial statistics. The authors combine an introduction to Bayesian theory and methodology with a focus on the spatial and spatio­-temporal models used within the Bayesian framework and a series of practical examples which allow the reader to link the statistical theory presented to real data problems. The numerous examples from the fields of epidemiology, biostatistics and social science all are coded in the R package R-INLA, which has proven to be a valid alternative to the commonly used Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations

Progressively more and more attention has been paid to how location affects health outcomes. The area of disease mapping focusses on these problems, and the Bayesian paradigm has a major role to play in the understanding of the complex interplay of context and individual predisposition in such studies of disease. Using R for Bayesian Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Health Modeling provides a major resource for those interested in applying Bayesian methodology in small area health data studies. Features: Review of R graphics relevant to spatial health data Overview of Bayesian methods and Bayesian hierarchical modeling as applied to spatial data Bayesian Computation and goodness-of-fit Review of basic Bayesian disease mapping models Spatio-temporal modeling with MCMC and INLA Special topics include multivariate models, survival analysis, missing data, measurement error, variable selection, individual event modeling, and infectious disease modeling Software for fitting models based on BRugs, Nimble, CARBayes and INLA Provides code relevant to fitting all examples throughout the book at a supplementary website The book fills a void in the literature and available software, providing a crucial link for students and professionals alike to engage in the analysis of spatial and spatio-temporal health data from a Bayesian perspective using R. The book emphasizes the use of MCMC via Nimble, BRugs, and CARBAyes, but also includes INLA for comparative purposes. In addition, a wide range of packages useful in the analysis of geo-referenced spatial data are employed and code is provided. It will likely become a key reference for researchers and students from biostatistics, epidemiology, public health, and environmental science.

Modelling Spatial and Spatial-Temporal Data: A Bayesian Approach is aimed at statisticians and quantitative social, economic and public health students and researchers who work with spatial and spatial-temporal data. It assumes a grounding in statistical theory up to the standard linear regression model. The book compares both hierarchical and spatial econometric modelling, providing both a reference and a teaching text with exercises in each chapter. The book provides a fully Bayesian, self-contained, treatment of the underlying statistical theory, with chapters dedicated to substantive applications. The book includes WinBUGS code and R code and all datasets are available online. Part I covers fundamental issues arising when modelling spatial and spatial-temporal data. Part II focuses on modelling cross-sectional spatial data and begins by describing exploratory methods that help guide the modelling process. There are then two theoretical chapters on Bayesian models and a chapter of applications. Two chapters follow on spatial econometric modelling, one describing different models, the other substantive applications. Part III discusses modelling spatial-temporal data, first introducing models for time series data. Exploratory methods for detecting different types of space-time interaction are presented followed by two chapters on the theory of space-time separable (without space-time interaction) and inseparable (with space-time interaction) models. An applications chapter includes: the evaluation of a policy intervention; analysing the temporal dynamics of crime hotspots; chronic disease surveillance; and testing for evidence of spatial spillovers in the spread of an infectious disease. A final chapter suggests some future directions and challenges.

The world is becoming increasingly complex, with larger quantities of data available to be analyzed. It so happens that much of these "big data" that are available are spatio-temporal in nature, meaning that they can be indexed by their spatial locations and time stamps. Spatio-Temporal Statistics with R provides an accessible introduction to statistical analysis of spatio-temporal data, with hands-on applications of the statistical methods using R Labs found at the end of each chapter. The book: Gives a step-by-step approach to analyzing spatio-temporal data, starting with visualization, then statistical modelling, with an emphasis on hierarchical statistical models and basis function expansions, and finishing with model evaluation Provides a gradual entry to the methodological aspects of spatio-temporal statistics Provides broad coverage of using R as well as "R Tips" throughout. Features detailed examples and applications in end-of-chapter Labs Features "Technical Notes" throughout to provide additional technical detail where relevant Supplemented by a website featuring the associated R package, data, reviews, errata, a discussion forum, and more The book fills a void in the literature and available software, providing a bridge for students and researchers alike who wish to learn the basics of spatio-temporal statistics. It is written in an informal style and functions as a down-to-earth introduction to the subject. Any reader familiar with calculus-based probability and statistics, and who is comfortable with basic matrix-algebra representations of statistical models, would find this book easy to follow. The goal is to give as many people as possible the tools and confidence to analyze spatio-temporal data.

Teaches Students How to Perform Spatio-Temporal Analyses within Epidemiological Studies Spatio-Temporal Methods in Environmental Epidemiology is the first book of its kind to specifically address the interface between environmental epidemiology and spatio-temporal modeling. In response to the growing need for collaboration between statisticians and environmental epidemiologists, the book links recent developments in spatio-temporal methodology with epidemiological applications. Drawing on real-life problems, it provides the necessary tools to exploit advances in methodology when assessing the health risks associated with environmental hazards. The book’s clear guidelines enable the implementation of the methodology and estimation of risks in practice. Designed for graduate students in both epidemiology and statistics, the text covers a wide range of topics, from an introduction to epidemiological principles and the foundations of spatio-temporal modeling to new research directions. It describes traditional and Bayesian approaches and presents the theory of spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal modeling in the context of its application to environmental epidemiology. The text includes practical examples together with embedded R code, details of specific R packages, and the use of other software, such as WinBUGS/OpenBUGS and integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA). A supplementary website provides additional code, data, examples, exercises, lab projects, and more. Representing a major new direction in environmental epidemiology, this book—in full color throughout—underscores the increasing need to consider dependencies in both space and time when modeling epidemiological data. Students will learn how to identify and model patterns in spatio-temporal data as well as exploit dependencies over space and time to reduce bias and inefficiency.