Bayesian Optimization With Application To Computer Experiments

This book introduces readers to Bayesian optimization, highlighting advances in the field and showcasing its successful applications to computer experiments. R code is available as online supplementary material for most included examples, so that readers can better comprehend and reproduce methods. Compact and accessible, the volume is broken down into four chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the reader to the topic of computer experiments; it includes a variety of examples across many industries. Chapter 2 focuses on the task of surrogate model building and contains a mix of several different surrogate models that are used in the computer modeling and machine learning communities. Chapter 3 introduces the core concepts of Bayesian optimization and discusses unconstrained optimization. Chapter 4 moves on to constrained optimization, and showcases some of the most novel methods found in the field. This will be a useful companion to researchers and practitioners working with computer experiments and computer modeling. Additionally, readers with a background in machine learning but minimal background in computer experiments will find this book an interesting case study of the applicability of Bayesian optimization outside the realm of machine learning.

Optimize the performance of your systems with practical experiments used by engineers in the world’s most competitive industries. In Experimentation for Engineers: From A/B testing to Bayesian optimization you will learn how to: Design, run, and analyze an A/B test Break the "feedback loops" caused by periodic retraining of ML models Increase experimentation rate with multi-armed bandits Tune multiple parameters experimentally with Bayesian optimization Clearly define business metrics used for decision-making Identify and avoid the common pitfalls of experimentation Experimentation for Engineers: From A/B testing to Bayesian optimization is a toolbox of techniques for evaluating new features and fine-tuning parameters. You’ll start with a deep dive into methods like A/B testing, and then graduate to advanced techniques used to measure performance in industries such as finance and social media. Learn how to evaluate the changes you make to your system and ensure that your testing doesn’t undermine revenue or other business metrics. By the time you’re done, you’ll be able to seamlessly deploy experiments in production while avoiding common pitfalls. About the technology Does my software really work? Did my changes make things better or worse? Should I trade features for performance? Experimentation is the only way to answer questions like these. This unique book reveals sophisticated experimentation practices developed and proven in the world’s most competitive industries that will help you enhance machine learning systems, software applications, and quantitative trading solutions. About the book Experimentation for Engineers: From A/B testing to Bayesian optimization delivers a toolbox of processes for optimizing software systems. You’ll start by learning the limits of A/B testing, and then graduate to advanced experimentation strategies that take advantage of machine learning and probabilistic methods. The skills you’ll master in this practical guide will help you minimize the costs of experimentation and quickly reveal which approaches and features deliver the best business results. What's inside Design, run, and analyze an A/B test Break the “feedback loops” caused by periodic retraining of ML models Increase experimentation rate with multi-armed bandits Tune multiple parameters experimentally with Bayesian optimization About the reader For ML and software engineers looking to extract the most value from their systems. Examples in Python and NumPy. About the author David Sweet has worked as a quantitative trader at GETCO and a machine learning engineer at Instagram. He teaches in the AI and Data Science master's programs at Yeshiva University. Table of Contents 1 Optimizing systems by experiment 2 A/B testing: Evaluating a modification to your system 3 Multi-armed bandits: Maximizing business metrics while experimenting 4 Response surface methodology: Optimizing continuous parameters 5 Contextual bandits: Making targeted decisions 6 Bayesian optimization: Automating experimental optimization 7 Managing business metrics 8 Practical considerations

This volume brings together the main results in the field of Bayesian Optimization (BO), focusing on the last ten years and showing how, on the basic framework, new methods have been specialized to solve emerging problems from machine learning, artificial intelligence, and system optimization. It also analyzes the software resources available for BO and a few selected application areas. Some areas for which new results are shown include constrained optimization, safe optimization, and applied mathematics, specifically BO's use in solving difficult nonlinear mixed integer problems. The book will help bring readers to a full understanding of the basic Bayesian Optimization framework and gain an appreciation of its potential for emerging application areas. It will be of particular interest to the data science, computer science, optimization, and engineering communities.

This book describes methods for designing and analyzing experiments that are conducted using a computer code, a computer experiment, and, when possible, a physical experiment. Computer experiments continue to increase in popularity as surrogates for and adjuncts to physical experiments. Since the publication of the first edition, there have been many methodological advances and software developments to implement these new methodologies. The computer experiments literature has emphasized the construction of algorithms for various data analysis tasks (design construction, prediction, sensitivity analysis, calibration among others), and the development of web-based repositories of designs for immediate application. While it is written at a level that is accessible to readers with Masters-level training in Statistics, the book is written in sufficient detail to be useful for practitioners and researchers. New to this revised and expanded edition: • An expanded presentation of basic material on computer experiments and Gaussian processes with additional simulations and examples • A new comparison of plug-in prediction methodologies for real-valued simulator output • An enlarged discussion of space-filling designs including Latin Hypercube designs (LHDs), near-orthogonal designs, and nonrectangular regions • A chapter length description of process-based designs for optimization, to improve good overall fit, quantile estimation, and Pareto optimization • A new chapter describing graphical and numerical sensitivity analysis tools • Substantial new material on calibration-based prediction and inference for calibration parameters • Lists of software that can be used to fit models discussed in the book to aid practitioners

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Bayesian optimization is a methodology for optimizing expensive objective functions that has proven success in the sciences, engineering, and beyond. This timely text provides a self-contained and comprehensive introduction to the subject, starting from scratch and carefully developing all the key ideas along the way. This bottom-up approach illuminates unifying themes in the design of Bayesian optimization algorithms and builds a solid theoretical foundation for approaching novel situations. The core of the book is divided into three main parts, covering theoretical and practical aspects of Gaussian process modeling, the Bayesian approach to sequential decision making, and the realization and computation of practical and effective optimization policies. Following this foundational material, the book provides an overview of theoretical convergence results, a survey of notable extensions, a comprehensive history of Bayesian optimization, and an extensive annotated bibliography of applications.

This book presents the state-of-the-art, current challenges, and future perspectives for the field of many-criteria optimization and decision analysis. The field recognizes that real-life problems often involve trying to balance a multiplicity of considerations simultaneously – such as performance, cost, risk, sustainability, and quality. The field develops theory, methods and tools that can support decision makers in finding appropriate solutions when faced with many (typically more than three) such criteria at the same time. The book consists of two parts: key research topics, and emerging topics. Part I begins with a general introduction to many-criteria optimization, perspectives from research leaders in real-world problems, and a contemporary survey of the attributes of problems of this kind. This part continues with chapters on fundamental aspects of many-criteria optimization, namely on order relations, quality measures, benchmarking, visualization, and theoretical considerations. Part II offers more specialized chapters on correlated objectives, heterogeneous objectives, Bayesian optimization, and game theory. Written by leading experts across the field of many-criteria optimization, this book will be an essential resource for researchers in the fields of evolutionary computing, operations research, multiobjective optimization, and decision science.

Accessible to a variety of readers, this book is of interest to specialists, graduate students and researchers in mathematics, optimization, computer science, operations research, management science, engineering and other applied areas interested in solving optimization problems. Basic principles, potential and boundaries of applicability of stochastic global optimization techniques are examined in this book. A variety of issues that face specialists in global optimization are explored, such as multidimensional spaces which are frequently ignored by researchers. The importance of precise interpretation of the mathematical results in assessments of optimization methods is demonstrated through examples of convergence in probability of random search. Methodological issues concerning construction and applicability of stochastic global optimization methods are discussed, including the one-step optimal average improvement method based on a statistical model of the objective function. A significant portion of this book is devoted to an analysis of high-dimensional global optimization problems and the so-called ‘curse of dimensionality’. An examination of the three different classes of high-dimensional optimization problems, the geometry of high-dimensional balls and cubes, very slow convergence of global random search algorithms in large-dimensional problems , and poor uniformity of the uniformly distributed sequences of points are included in this book.