Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods In Economics

This book presents recent research on probabilistic methods in economics, from machine learning to statistical analysis. Economics is a very important – and at the same a very difficult discipline. It is not easy to predict how an economy will evolve or to identify the measures needed to make an economy prosper. One of the main reasons for this is the high level of uncertainty: different difficult-to-predict events can influence the future economic behavior. To make good predictions and reasonable recommendations, this uncertainty has to be taken into account. In the past, most related research results were based on using traditional techniques from probability and statistics, such as p-value-based hypothesis testing. These techniques led to numerous successful applications, but in the last decades, several examples have emerged showing that these techniques often lead to unreliable and inaccurate predictions. It is therefore necessary to come up with new techniques for processing the corresponding uncertainty that go beyond the traditional probabilistic techniques. This book focuses on such techniques, their economic applications and the remaining challenges, presenting both related theoretical developments and their practical applications.

Data processing has become essential to modern civilization. The original data for this processing comes from measurements or from experts, and both sources are subject to uncertainty. Traditionally, probabilistic methods have been used to process uncertainty. However, in many practical situations, we do not know the corresponding probabilities: in measurements, we often only know the upper bound on the measurement errors; this is known as interval uncertainty. In turn, expert estimates often include imprecise (fuzzy) words from natural language such as "small"; this is known as fuzzy uncertainty. In this book, leading specialists on interval, fuzzy, probabilistic uncertainty and their combination describe state-of-the-art developments in their research areas. Accordingly, the book offers a valuable guide for researchers and practitioners interested in data processing under uncertainty, and an introduction to the latest trends and techniques in this area, suitable for graduate students.

This book offers an overview of state-of-the-art econometric techniques, with a special emphasis on financial econometrics. There is a major need for such techniques, since the traditional way of designing mathematical models – based on researchers’ insights – can no longer keep pace with the ever-increasing data flow. To catch up, many application areas have begun relying on data science, i.e., on techniques for extracting models from data, such as data mining, machine learning, and innovative statistics. In terms of capitalizing on data science, many application areas are way ahead of economics. To close this gap, the book provides examples of how data science techniques can be used in economics. Corresponding techniques range from almost traditional statistics to promising novel ideas such as quantum econometrics. Given its scope, the book will appeal to students and researchers interested in state-of-the-art developments, and to practitioners interested in using data science techniques.

This book overviews latest ideas and developments in financial econometrics, with an emphasis on how to best use prior knowledge (e.g., Bayesian way) and how to best use successful data processing techniques from other application areas (e.g., from quantum physics). The book also covers applications to economy-related phenomena ranging from traditionally analyzed phenomena such as manufacturing, food industry, and taxes, to newer-to-analyze phenomena such as cryptocurrencies, influencer marketing, COVID-19 pandemic, financial fraud detection, corruption, and shadow economy. This book will inspire practitioners to learn how to apply state-of-the-art Bayesian, quantum, and related techniques to economic and financial problems and inspire researchers to further improve the existing techniques and come up with new techniques for studying economic and financial phenomena. The book will also be of interest to students interested in latest ideas and results.

This volume emphasizes techniques of optimal transport statistics, but it also describes and uses other econometric techniques, ranging from more traditional statistical techniques to more innovative ones such as quantiles (in particular, multidimensional quantiles), maximum entropy approach, and machine learning. Applications range from general analysis of GDP growth, stock market, and consumer prices to analysis of specific sectors of economics (construction, credit and banking, energy, health, labor, textile, tourism, international trade) to specific issues affecting economy such as bankruptcy, effect of Covid-19 pandemic, effect of pollution, effect of gender, cryptocurrencies, and the existence of shadow economy. Papers presented in this volume also cover data processing techniques, with economic and financial application being the unifying theme. This volume shows what has been achieved, but even more important are remaining open problems. We hope that this volume will: ˆ inspire practitioners to learn how to apply state-of-the-art techniques, especially techniques of optimal transport statistics, to economic and financial problems, and ˆ inspire researchers to further improve the existing techniques and to come up with new techniques for studying economic and financial phenomena.

Mainly focusing on processing uncertainty, this book presents state-of-the-art techniques and demonstrates their use in applications to econometrics and other areas. Processing uncertainty is essential, considering that computers – which help us understand real-life processes and make better decisions based on that understanding – get their information from measurements or from expert estimates, neither of which is ever 100% accurate. Measurement uncertainty is usually described using probabilistic techniques, while uncertainty in expert estimates is often described using fuzzy techniques. Therefore, it is important to master both techniques for processing data. This book is highly recommended for researchers and students interested in the latest results and challenges in uncertainty, as well as practitioners who want to learn how to use the corresponding state-of-the-art techniques.

This book discusses heuristic methods – methods lacking a solid theoretical justification – which are ubiquitous in numerous application areas, and explains techniques that can make heuristic methods more reliable. Focusing on algebraic techniques, i.e., those that use only a few specific features of a situation, it describes various state-of-the-art applications, ranging from fuzzy methods for dealing with imprecision to general optimization methods and quantum-based methods for analyzing economic phenomena. The book also includes recent results from leading researchers, which could (and hopefully will) provide the basis for future applications. As such, it is a valuable resource for mathematicians interested in potential applications of their algebraic results and ideas, as well as for application specialists wanting to discover how algebraic techniques can help in their domains.

This book describes current and potential use of artificial intelligence and computational intelligence techniques in biomedicine and other application areas. Medical applications range from general diagnostics to processing of X-ray images to e-medicine-related privacy issues. Medical community understandably prefers methods that have been successful other on other application areas, where possible mistakes are not that critical. This book describes many promising methods related to deep learning, fuzzy techniques, knowledge graphs, and quantum computing. It also describes the results of testing these new methods in communication networks, education, environmental studies, food industry, retail industry, transportation engineering, and many other areas. This book helps practitioners and researchers to learn more about computational intelligence methods and their biomedical applications—and to further develop this important research direction.