Building Knowledge Based Systems For Natural Resource Management

If one were forced to use a single key word to describe the decade of the 1980's, a very prominent one would be "technology. " Leading the forefront of tech nology advancement were breakthroughs in electronics. Devices that were uncommon or unknown in 1980 became commonplace, and almost indispens able, by 1989. This trend has continued into the 1990's and it does not seem to be abating in any way. Microwave ovens, video recorders, telephone answer ing machines, compact disc players, computers, and a host of smaller or less sophisticated devices now appear in most households. The development of small and inexpensive computers, i. e. , personal computers, has placed computing resources within reach of many more people. In addition, many traditional, and largely mechanical devices, have been enhanced by electronics. For example, specialized microprocessors are combined with arrays of electronic sensors to control and monitor sophisticated engineering components in most new auto mobiles. In this and many other ways, we are touched by the new electronics in almost every aspect of our daily lives. Initially, personal computers were little more than toys. They contained only a small fraction of the computing power of their immediate ancestors, the mini computers and mainframe computers. However, rapid improvements in integ rated circuit design and chip manufacture produced regular reductions in size and cost of computer components. During the same time, processor speed and sophistication increased.

If one were forced to use a single key word to describe the decade of the 1980's, a very prominent one would be "technology. " Leading the forefront of tech nology advancement were breakthroughs in electronics. Devices that were uncommon or unknown in 1980 became commonplace, and almost indispens able, by 1989. This trend has continued into the 1990's and it does not seem to be abating in any way. Microwave ovens, video recorders, telephone answer ing machines, compact disc players, computers, and a host of smaller or less sophisticated devices now appear in most households. The development of small and inexpensive computers, i. e. , personal computers, has placed computing resources within reach of many more people. In addition, many traditional, and largely mechanical devices, have been enhanced by electronics. For example, specialized microprocessors are combined with arrays of electronic sensors to control and monitor sophisticated engineering components in most new auto mobiles. In this and many other ways, we are touched by the new electronics in almost every aspect of our daily lives. Initially, personal computers were little more than toys. They contained only a small fraction of the computing power of their immediate ancestors, the mini computers and mainframe computers. However, rapid improvements in integ rated circuit design and chip manufacture produced regular reductions in size and cost of computer components. During the same time, processor speed and sophistication increased.

Decision making in land management involves preferential selection among competing alternatives. Often, such choices are difficult owing to the complexity of the decision context. Because the analytic hierarchy process (AHP, developed by Thomas Saaty in the 1970s) has been successfully applied to many complex planning, resource allocation, and priority setting problems in business, energy, health, marketing, natural resources, and transportation, more applications of the AHP in natural resources and environmental sciences are appearing regularly. This realization has prompted the authors to collect some of the important works in this area and present them as a single volume for managers and scholars. Because land management contains a somewhat unique set of features not found in other AHP application areas, such as site-specific decisions, group participation and collaboration, and incomplete scientific knowledge, this text fills a void in the literature on management science and decision analysis for forest resources.

This book will serve as a readable introduction to ecological modeling for people involved in resource management and will also review models for specific applications of interest to more experienced modelers. Successful uses of ecological models as well as discussions of important issues in modeling are addressed. The authors of this volume hope to close the gap between the state of the art in ecological modeling and the state of the practice in the use of models in management decision making.