Calamity Theory

What are the implications of how we talk about apocalypse? A new philosophical field has emerged. “Existential risk” studies any real or hypothetical human extinction event in the near or distant future. This movement examines catastrophes ranging from runaway global warming to nuclear warfare to malevolent artificial intelligence, deploying a curious mix of utilitarian ethics, statistical risk analysis, and, controversially, a transhuman advocacy that would aim to supersede almost all extinction scenarios. The proponents of existential risk thinking, led by Oxford philosopher Nick Bostrom, have seen their work gain immense popularity, attracting endorsement from Bill Gates and Elon Musk, millions of dollars, and millions of views. Calamity Theory is the first book to examine the rise of this thinking and its failures to acknowledge the ways some communities and lifeways are more at risk than others and what it implies about human extinction. Forerunners: Ideas First is a thought-in-process series of breakthrough digital publications. Written between fresh ideas and finished books, Forerunners draws on scholarly work initiated in notable blogs, social media, conference plenaries, journal articles, and the synergy of academic exchange. This is gray literature publishing: where intense thinking, change, and speculation take place in scholarship.

Sociology has developed theories of social change in the fields of evolution, conflict and modernization, viewing modern society as essentially unstable and conflict driven. However, it has not seriously studied catastrophe. A Theory of Catastrophe develops a sociology of catastrophes, comparing natural, social and political causes and consequences, and the social theories that might offer explanations. A catastrophe is a general and systematic breakdown of social and political institutions resulting, among other things, in what we could call a catastrophe consciousness. The Greek ‘cata-strophe’ formed the conclusion to a dramatic sequence of strophes. The cata-strophe was the final act of a drama, namely its denouement. Catastrophic denouements are without hope: genocides, military occupations, plagues, famines and earthquakes. A Theory of Catastrophe analyzes Pompeii, the Black Death, colonial genocide in North America, WWI and the Spanish Flu, and Nazi Germany and finally this century: terrorism, new wars, climate change and pandemics. As a study of sociological theory, Bryan Turner discusses Spengler’s Decline of the West, Marxism as a theory of catastrophic capitalism, messianic movements, Weber on modernity, and risk society. He concludes by comparing optimism and pessimism, and the idea of inter-generational justice.

Originally published in 1983, Interpretations of Calamity provides a provocative critique of the ‘dominant view’ of research into natural hazards. Throughout the world, there are now many people professionally engaged in the mitigation and control of risks & hazards, and the impact of continuing economic development will ensure that they are fully employed. There is a wealth of perspectives in the book, including weather and wheat yields in the Soviet Union and Canada, an historical view of underdevelopment and hazards in Ireland and the impact of a response to drought in southern Africa, the Sahel and the Great Plains of the USA. The book reflects the major themes of hazards in the context of economic development and social change. Most of the case studies are from the rural and agriculture scene. This book provides a unique view of the vital importance of food production and of the considerable, and sometimes calamitous, impact that frost, flood, storm and drought have on the wellbeing of millions of people and on the stability of the international economic system.

The book provides insights into community narratives concerning life in the face of creeping calamities through a case study from the Colombian Andes. It sets out to make sense of the lived experience of disasters that are slowly unfolding as well disasters that have not yet occurred. This book explores what it means to live in anticipation of disaster and in anticipation of an uprooting of community, sense of self, and sense of belonging. It questions whether community resilience is a useful concept in the context of slow-onset geological hazards for which few viable solutions are available. The book forces us to think about how resettlement and displacement functions in the context of slow calamities, which presents distinct challenges, mainly related to lower political saliency than what is usually the case in emergencies. The book thus also has implications for how we think about the adverse impacts of climate change. By raising new questions on the nature of disasters and calamities and how we experience them, the book explores the challenges and tensions surrounding governance and governmentality. The interdisciplinary blend of practice-oriented and conceptual reflections will appeal to academics in postgraduate and postdoctoral research in social sciences, specifically, disaster research, geography, and research fields centred on natural hazards and disasters.

This book is part of a three-volume set that constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Knowledge-Based Intelligent Information and Engineering Systems, KES 2007. Coverage in this first volume includes artificial neural networks and connectionists systems, fuzzy and neuro-fuzzy systems, evolutionary computation, machine learning and classical AI, agent systems, and information engineering and applications in ubiquitous computing environments.

The book is expressly written for the young minds because they are our best hope for a safer tomorrow. The book is profusely illustrated, as it offers a joyride to the world of the whole range of hazards through simplified teaching-learning process, with less of teaching and more of learning. This is because most readers would love to learn without actually being taught. The book is designed to take advantage of distilled wisdom of centuries to inspire and enlighten the common man to turn them into prime movers of safer societies. Senior citizens, community leaders, self-trained disaster managers, social workers, media personnel, bureaucrats and those averse to the very thought of reading will also find the book useful as it is illustrative and inviting.

Disaster Theory: An Interdisciplinary Approach to Concepts and Causes offers the theoretical background needed to understand what disasters are and why they occur. Drawing on related disciplines, including sociology, risk theory, and seminal research on disasters and emergency management, Disaster Theory clearly lays out the conceptual framework of the emerging field of disaster studies. Tailored to the needs of advanced undergraduates and graduate students, this unique text also provides an ideal capstone for students who have already been introduced to the fundamentals of emergency management. Disaster Theory emphasizes the application of critical thinking in understanding disasters and their causes by synthesizing a wide range of information on theory and practice, including input from leading scholars in the field. Offers the first cohesive depiction of disaster theory Incorporates material from leading thinkers in the field, as well as student exercises and critical thinking questions, making this a rich resource for advanced courses Written from an international perspective and includes case studies of disasters and hazards from around the world for comparing the leading models of emergency response Challenges the reader to think critically about important questions in disaster management from various points of view

In the conflict between logging as a material resource and preservation the forests are becoming depleted throughout the world and this depletion is aggravated by the effects of air pollution. The concept of utilization is thus now being expanded to include vital societal values. These issues are nowhere more acute than in Central and Eastern Europe, where obsolete, poorly maintained industrial plant is common. Air pollutant levels are so high that one area has been called the Black Triangle. Timber is required in this region as a building material and logging for fuelwood is practised, giving rise to a complex linkage between industry, energy supply, deforestation, agriculture, value-added forestry products and economic development. This book presents current information on national and regional issues relating to environmental threats to forest land, focusing on: ecology, environment and science; forest ownership and management; forest product utilization; government and public agency roles. The recommendations, action items and the human network needed for regional-level implementation are detailed in `situation', `position' and `state of the art' papers. The final objective is to develop a plan of action to help abate the negative impacts while sustaining or expanding the forests, the economy and the energy sufficiency of the region.