Calculated Bets

A story of using computer simulations and mathematical modeling techniques to predict the outcome of jai-alai matches and bet on them successfully.

This is a book about a gambling system that works. It tells the story of how the author used computer simulations and mathematical modeling techniques to predict the outcome of jai-alai matches and bet on them successfully - increasing his initial stake by over 500 per cent in one year! His results can work for anyone: at the end of the book he tells the best way to watch jai-alai, and how to bet on it. With humor and enthusiasm, Skiena details a life-long fascination with computer predictions and sporting events. Along the way, he discusses other gambling systems, both successful and unsuccessful, for such games as lotto, roulette, blackjack, and the stock market. Indeed, he shows how his jai-alai system functions just like a miniature stock trading system.

The most comprehensive reference book on poker, casino and lottery betting on the market with over 600 cross referenced entries. It explores the history, systems, theory, law, word origins and slang as well the scandals, scams and the huge array of unforgettable characters and audacious coups.

Since 2019 this book exists in German, now finally the English translation of this Buyer exists! Lorenz Laplace succeeded in gaining a fortune of 20,000 EUR quite systematically through sports betting within three years with 1,000 EUR starting capital and many small bets with stakes of 20-50 EUR. Laplace gives tips in easy-to-remember rules: For example, the main betting rule, the tax-favourites rule or the crass-outsider rule. The derivation of these tips is done in an understandable way, and the calculations are very easy to follow. The core of his strategy for betting is based on the following insight: the probabilities for a sporting event cannot be calculated exactly. So, every betting provider errs in setting the odds. Some odds are too low, others are too high for the outcome. It is only necessary to recognise in which direction the betting provider errs, e.g., in favour of the underdog or the favourite. The bettor's error is analysed with the help of a four-point plan, and then the bets are placed, naturally on the events that have received odds that are too high from the bettor.In addition, Lorenz Laplace gives other decisive tips, e.g., how to optimally integrate promotions: Deposit bonuses, free bets, cashback, or combination bet insurance, etc. The book is a must for every betting enthusiast who wants to make long - term profits with betting.

A gentleman who likes to bet should never be at a disadvantage when it comes to calculating the amount of winnings he has managed to prise away from the grasping clutches of the local turf accountant. In this book, readers will find one of the most comprehensive sporting ready reckoners ever to be produced and with the simple guide to bet settling, which explains all the short cuts and systems used by the professional settler, there is no wager readers will not be able to settle.

This engaging and clearly written textbook/reference provides a must-have introduction to the rapidly emerging interdisciplinary field of data science. It focuses on the principles fundamental to becoming a good data scientist and the key skills needed to build systems for collecting, analyzing, and interpreting data. The Data Science Design Manual is a source of practical insights that highlights what really matters in analyzing data, and provides an intuitive understanding of how these core concepts can be used. The book does not emphasize any particular programming language or suite of data-analysis tools, focusing instead on high-level discussion of important design principles. This easy-to-read text ideally serves the needs of undergraduate and early graduate students embarking on an “Introduction to Data Science” course. It reveals how this discipline sits at the intersection of statistics, computer science, and machine learning, with a distinct heft and character of its own. Practitioners in these and related fields will find this book perfect for self-study as well. Additional learning tools: Contains “War Stories,” offering perspectives on how data science applies in the real world Includes “Homework Problems,” providing a wide range of exercises and projects for self-study Provides a complete set of lecture slides and online video lectures at www.data-manual.com Provides “Take-Home Lessons,” emphasizing the big-picture concepts to learn from each chapter Recommends exciting “Kaggle Challenges” from the online platform Kaggle Highlights “False Starts,” revealing the subtle reasons why certain approaches fail Offers examples taken from the data science television show “The Quant Shop” (www.quant-shop.com)

Over the past two decades, gamblers have begun taking mathematics into account more seriously than ever before. While probability theory is the only rigorous theory modeling the uncertainty, even though in idealized conditions, numerical probabilities are viewed not only as mere mathematical information, but also as a decision-making criterion, especially in gambling. This book presents the mathematics underlying the major games of chance and provides a precise account of the odds associated with all gaming events. It begins by explaining in simple terms the meaning of the concept of probability for the layman and goes on to become an enlightening journey through the mathematics of chance, randomness and risk. It then continues with the basics of discrete probability (definitions, properties, theorems and calculus formulas), combinatorics and counting arguments for those interested in the supporting mathematics. These mathematic sections may be skipped by readers who do not have a minimal background in mathematics; these readers can skip directly to the "Guide to Numerical Results" to pick the odds and recommendations they need for the desired gaming situation. Doing so is possible due to the organization of that chapter, in which the results are listed at the end of each section, mostly in the form of tables. The chapter titled "The Mathematics of Games of Chance" presents these games not only as a good application field for probability theory, but also in terms of human actions where probability-based strategies can be tried to achieve favorable results. Through suggestive examples, the reader can see what are the experiments, events and probability fields in games of chance and how probability calculus works there. The main portion of this work is a collection of probability results for each type of game. Each game's section is packed with formulas and tables. Each section also contains a description of the game, a classification of the gaming events and the applicable probability calculations. The primary goal of this work is to allow the reader to quickly find the odds for a specific gaming situation, in order to improve his or her betting/gaming decisions. Every type of gaming event is tabulated in a logical, consistent and comprehensive manner. The complete methodology and complete or partial calculations are shown to teach players how to calculate probability for any situation, for every stage of the game for any game. Here, readers can find the real odds, returned by precise mathematical formulas and not by partial simulations that most software uses. Collections of odds are presented, as well as strategic recommendations based on those odds, where necessary, for each type of gaming situation. The book contains much new and original material that has not been published previously and provides great coverage of probabilities for the following games of chance: Dice, Slots, Roulette, Baccarat, Blackjack, Texas Hold'em Poker, Lottery and Sport Bets. Most of games of chance are predisposed to probability-based decisions. This is why the approach is not an exclusively statistical one (like many other titles published on this subject), but analytical: every gaming event is taken as an individual applied probability problem to solve. A special chapter defines the probability-based strategy and mathematically shows why such strategy is theoretically optimal.