Capital Inflows Financial Development And Domestic Investment

We examine determinants of, and interactions between, capital inflows, financial development, and domestic investment in developing countries during 2001-07, a period of surging global liquidity and low interest rates. Reductions in the global price of risk and in domestic borrowing costs were the main contributors to the increase over time in net capital inflows and domestic credit. However, the large cross-country differences in domestic and international finance are best explained by fundamentals such as institutional quality, access to international export markets, and an appropriate macroeconomic policy. Both private capital inflows and domestic credit exert a positive effect on investment; they also mediate most of the investment impact of the global price of risk and domestic borrowing costs. Surprisingly, neither greater domestic credit nor greater institutional quality increase the extent to which capital inflows translate into domestic investment.

We examine determinants of, and interactions between, capital inflows, financial development, and domestic investment in developing countries during 2001-07, a period of surging global liquidity and low interest rates. Reductions in the global price of risk and in domestic borrowing costs were the main contributors to the increase over time in net capital inflows and domestic credit. However, the large cross-country differences in domestic and international finance are best explained by fundamentals such as institutional quality, access to international export markets, and an appropriate macroeconomic policy. Both private capital inflows and domestic credit exert a positive effect on investment; they also mediate most of the investment impact of the global price of risk and domestic borrowing costs. Surprisingly, neither greater domestic credit nor greater institutional quality increase the extent to which capital inflows translate into domestic investment.

The gradual acceleration of growth in developing countries is a defining feature of the past two decades. This acceleration came with major shifts in patterns of investment, saving, and capital flows. This second volume in the Global Development Horizons series analyzes these shifts and explores how they may evolve through 2030. Average domestic saving in developing countries stood at 34 percent of their GDP in 2010, up from 24 percent in 1990, while their investment was around 33 percent of their GDP in 2012, up from 26 percent. These trends in saving and investment, along with higher growth rates in developing countries, have resulted in developing countries’ share of global savings now standing at 46 percent, nearly double the level of the 1990s. The presence of developing countries on the global stage will continue to expand over the next two decades. Analysis in this report projects that by 2030, China will account for 30 percent of global investment activity, far and away the largest share of any single country, while India and Brazil (at 7 percent and 3 percent) will account for shares comparable to those of the United States and Japan (11 percent and 5 percent). The complex interaction among aging, growth, and financial deepening can be expected to result in a world where developing countries will contribute 62 of every 100 dollars of world saving in 2030, up from 45 dollars in 2010, and where they account for between $6.2 trillion and $13 trillion of global gross capital flows, rising from $1.3 trillion in 2010. Trends in investment, saving, and capital flows through 2030 will affect economic conditions from the household level to the global macroeconomic level, with implications not only for national policy makers but also for international institutions and policy coordination. Policymakers preparing for this change will benefit from a better understanding of the unfolding dynamics of global capital and wealth in the future. This book is accompanied by a website, http://www.worldbank.org/CapitalForTheFuture, that includes a host of related electronic resources: data sets underlying the two main scenarios presented in the report, background papers, technical appendixes, interactive widgets with variations to some of the assumptions used in the projections, and related audio and video resources.

In a sample of 60 developing countries, we find evidence of a strong-almost one-to-one-relationship between capital inflows and domestic investment. However, this relationship has evolved over time. While growing financial integration with the rest of the world has increased access to foreign private capital, the relationship between foreign capital and domestic investment has weakened, reflecting changes in the composition of inflows, offsetting outflows, and increased foreign-currency reserve requirements. In contrast, better policies have not only brought in more capital but also, especially for foreign direct investment, have tended to strengthen the relationship between foreign capital and domestic investment.

Exploiting a granular panel dataset that breaks down capital inflows into FDI, portfolio and other categories, and distinguishes between credit to the household sector and to the corporate sector, we investigate the association between capital inflows and credit growth. We find that non-FDI capital inflows boost credit growth and increase the likelihood of credit booms in both household and corporate sectors. For household credit growth, the composition of capital inflows appears to be more important than financial system characteristics. In contrast, for corporate credit growth, both the composition and the financial system matter. Regardless of sectors and financial systems, net other inflows are always linked to rapid credit growth. Firm-level data corroborate these findings and hint at a causal link: net other inflows are related to more rapid credit growth for firms that rely more heavily on external financing. Further explorations on how capital flows translate into more credit indicate that both demand and supply side factors play a role.

Firms often cite financing constraints as one of their primary obstacles to investment. Global capital flows, by bringing in scarce capital, may ease host-country firms' financing constraints. However, if incoming foreign investors borrow heavily from domestic basnks, direct foreign investment (DFI) may exacerbate financing constraints by crowding host country firms out of domestic capital markets. Combininb a unique cross-country firm-level panel with time-series data on restrictions on international transactions and capital flows, we find that different measures of global flows are associated with a reduction in firm-level financing constraints. First, we show that one type of capital inflow--DFI--is associated with a reduction in financing constraints. Second, we test whether restrictions on international transactions affect firms' financing constraints. Our results suggest that only one type of restriction--those on capital account transactions--negatively affect firms' financing constraints. We also show that multinational firms are not financially constrained and do not appear to be sensitive to the level of DFI. This implies that DFI eases financing constraints for non-multinational firms. Finally, we show that DFI only eases financing constraints in the non-G7 countries.

This study examines the major macroeconomic determinants and the structural relationships of current account variability, capital flows, saving and investment in open economies that are linked to the international financial markets. It explores the appropriateness of domestic policy responses (such as money stock growth, government spending, openness criteria, GDP growth) and the size of population or the impact of external shocks (such as exchange rate variability and the terms of trade uncertainty) for determining the domestic saving-investment comovement and capital flows worldwide. This analysis finds that even high positive correlations between national saving and investment rates could naturally arise within a perfect capital mobility framework where domestic policy variability and external shocks are likely to play a significant role for capital inflow.