Changing Patterns Of Global Trade

The past few decades have seen important shifts that have reshaped the global trade landscape. As a share of global output, trade is now at almost three times the level in the early 1950s, in large part driven by the integration of rapidly growing emerging market economies (EMEs). The expansion in trade is mostly accounted for by growth in noncommodity exports, especially of high-technology products such as computers and electronics. It is also characterized by a growing role of global supply chains and an ongoing shift of technology content toward EMEs. These developments in global trade have been associated with growing trade interconnectedness and carry important implications for trade patterns, in particular in response to relative price changes. The aim of this paper is to outline the factors underlying these changes and analyze their implications for the outlook for global trade patterns.

Changing Patterns of Global Trade outlines the factors underlying important shifts in global trade that have occurred in recent decades. The emergence of global supply chains and their increasing role in trade patterns allowed emerging market economies to boost their inputs in high-technology exports and is associated with increased trade interconnectedness.The analysis points to one important trend taking place over the last decade: the emergence of China as a major systemically important trading hub, reflecting not only the size of trade but also the increase in number of its significant trading partners.

This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.

In Evolving Patterns in Global Trade and Finance, Professor Sven W Arndt offers succinct and rigorous explanations of important developments in trade, finance and international monetary relations. Topics include economic and monetary integration, cross-border production networks, and stabilization policy in orthodox and mixed exchange-rate regimes. The theoretical framework developed in this volume provides critical assessments of existing policies and practices, develops theoretical foundations for new and emerging patterns in trade and finance, and evaluates how well economists and policy makers are dealing (or have dealt) with the challenges they face. Readers will find the most in-depth and comprehensive discussion of international production networks (“off-shoring”), a detailed analysis of the implications for US economic stability and policy autonomy of its unorthodox exchange rate regime of fixed and floating rates, and insights into the causes of recent economic and financial turmoil in the global economy. Contents:Part I: Beyond the Standard Trade Model:Free Trade and Its AlternativesOn Discriminatory vs. Non-Preferential Tariff PoliciesCustoms Union and the Theory of TariffsDomestic Distortions and Trade PolicyPart II: Fragmentation and Cross-Border Production Networks:FragmentationSuper-Specialization and the Gains from TradeGlobal Production Networks and Regional IntegrationProduction Networks in an Economically Integrated RegionTrade Diversion and Production SharingProduction Networks, Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic StabilityTrade, Production Networks and the Exchange RateIntra-Industry Trade and the Open EconomyFragmentation, Imperfect Competition and Heterogeneous FirmsPart III: Macro Policy Challenges in Open Economies:Policy Choices in an Open Economy: Some Dynamic ConsiderationsJoint Balance: Capital Mobility and the Monetary System of a Currency AreaInternational Short-Term Capital Movements: A Distributed Lag Model of Speculation in Foreign ExchangeRegional Currency Arrangements in North AmericaAdjustment in an Open Economy with Two Exchange-Rate RegimesStabilization Policy in an Economy with Two Exchange Rate RegimesPolicy Challenges in a Dual Exchange Rate RegimeThe "Great Moderation" in a Dual Exchange Rate Regime Readership: Advanced economics undergraduates and graduate students; academic researchers in both trade and open economy macroeconomics and international finance. Key Features:Offers the most complete and comprehensive analysis of “off-shoring” and international production networksPays serious attention to the existence of distortions and anti-competitive elements that threaten the ability of markets to function properlyAddresses weaknesses in current exchange rate arrangements that may contribute to global economic and financial instabilityKeywords:Preferential Trade Areas;Fragmentation;Cross-Border Production Networks;Off-Shoring;Currency Areas and Monetary Union;Single vs. Dual-Exchange Rate Regimes;Stabilization Policy in Open Economies;International Monetary Relations

This book collects OECD work that builds on recent contributions to the theory and empirics of comparative advantage, putting particular emphasis on the role policy can play in shaping trade.

A comprehensive and fruitful analysis of the shaping factors of international trade and their implications for trade policy cannot be performed without having a clear idea of the evolution of trade patterns over time. Today, there is a net redistribution of wealth away from the rapid-growth economies. Companies from those rapid-growth markets are now challenging the giants of the Fortune and Forbes lists. We are witnessing a surge of investment from west to east, some of it speculative but much of it the result of by individual businesses decisions. Focusing on west to east misses the important east to east and growing east to west dimension. And centring on flows to India and China misses the far greater increase that is happening within regional blocs closer to home. Although international trade collapsed throughout the financial crisis, it has since bounced back sturdily, led by trade among rising markets. But what remains unclear is whether the key trends of the past ten years can be expected to extend into the coming decade, or whether the global financial crisis has changed the dynamic of the global economy, ensuing in new patterns of international trade. This is a compilation of the leading research contributed by renowned economists and political scientists discussing the links between economic changes and international trade. It identifies and explains important trends in international trade that have emerged over the last years. It also provides some illustrative simulations of possible future trade scenarios. Worldwide trade has recovered strongly following the global financial crisis. But rather than a return to business as usual, we are now seeing new patterns of international trade emerge. Businesses will need to adjust their strategies to imitate the changing patterns of world trade that are developing and are on the edge to intensify over the next decade. This book will be of an excellent tool for students and social scientists interested in international economic affairs.