China S Military Faces The Future

This is the most up-to-date assessment of all aspects of the People's Liberation Army. Leading specialists on the Chinese military cover military leadership, defense doctrine and military readiness, preparations for high-tech warfare, military expenditure, military logistics, the scientific and technological base for defense procurement, and China's security concerns in Northeast Asia.

China's rise to global economic and strategic eminence, with the potential for achieving pre-eminence in the greater-Asian region, is one of the defining characteristics of the post-Cold War period. This work offers a basic understanding of the military-strategic basis and trajectory of a rising China, provides background, and outlines current and future issues concerning China's rise in strategic-military influence. The next decade may witness China's assertion of military or strategic pressure on Japan, the Korean Peninsula, India, the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, Central Asia, or even on behalf of future allies in Africa and Latin America. While conflict is not a foregone conclusion, as indicated by China's increasing participation in many benign international organizations, it is a fact that China's leadership will pursue its interests as it sees them, which may not always coincide with those of the United States, its friends, and allies. Until now, no single volume has existed that provides an authoritative, comprehensive, and concise description of China's evolving geo-strategy or of how China is transforming its military to carry out this strategy. Fisher examines how China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) remains critical to the existence of the Chinese Communist government and looks at China's political and military actions designed to protect its expanded strategic interests in both the Asia-Pacific and Central to Near-Asian regions. Using open sources, including over a decade of unique interview sources, Fisher documents China's efforts to build a larger nuclear force that may soon be protected by missile defenses, modern high technology systems for space, air, and naval forces, and how China is now beginning to assemble naval, air, and ground forces for future power projection missions. His work also examines how the United States and other governments simultaneously seek greater engagement with China on strategic concerns, while hedging against its rising power. Although China faces both internal and external constraints on its rise to global eminence, it cannot be denied that China's government is pursuing a far-reaching strategic agenda.

The purpose of this study is to assess future resource constraints on, and potential domestic economic and industrial contributions to, the ability of the Chinese military to become a significant threat to U.S. forces by 2025. The authors conducted this assessment by answering the following questions: (1) What will be the likely shape and size of the Chinese economy over the next two decades?; (2) What types of constraints will the Chinese government face in terms of drawing on increased economic output for spending on the military?; (3) What problems will the military face and what possibilities will it have in terms of purchasing the goods and services it desires from the Chinese defense industry?; and (4) How will these constraints and opportunities shape the capabilities of the Chinese armed forces over the next two decades? The authors developed answers to these questions using a variety of information sources and analytical techniques. Chinese statistical data, analyses of the Chinese economy, and a model of the Chinese economy were used to address the question of economic growth and size. The rich literature discussing tax, social, and fiscal policies in China was married with a statistical analysis of Chinese spending and the economic analysis to address the questions of budgetary constraints. To evaluate the health of China's defense industries, they engaged in an extensive analysis of open-source Chinese and English-language information on these industries and interviews with knowledgeable industry specialists to determine institutional reforms in China's defense industries, including contracting procedures. Estimates of the current and future size of Chinese military expenditures drew on newly available Chinese-language primary sources on defense budgeting and local expenditures, Chinese statistical material, and a military forecasting model developed for this study.

"How will China use its increasing military capabilities in the future? China faces a complicated security environment with a wide range of internal and external threats. Rapidly expanding international interests are creating demands for the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to conduct new missions ranging from protecting Chinese shipping from Somali pirates to evacuating citizens from Libya. The most recent Chinese defense white paper states that the armed forces must 'make serious preparations to cope with the most complex and difficult scenarios ... so as to ensure proper responses ... at any time and under any circumstances.' Based on a conference co-sponsored by Taiwan's Council of Advanced Policy Studies, RAND, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and National Defense University, [this book] brings together leading experts from the United States and Taiwan to examine how the PLA prepares for a range of domestic, border, and maritime contingencies. The book includes chapters on how the PLA, domestic security forces, and the civilian government conduct contingency planning and how military commanders can draw upon national-level military assets and mobilize civilian resources to execute their plans. Substantive chapters assess PLA planning for potential domestic contingencies such as suppressing internal unrest, border contingencies involving India, Myanmar, North Korea, Afghanistan, and Central Asia, and maritime contingencies in both the near and the far seas. Authors also examine PLA preparations and performance in disaster relief, counterpiracy, and noncombatant evacuation operations. Improving PLA capabilities are giving Chinese leaders new options to respond to domestic and international crises, but the PLA still has significant limitations in projecting and sustaining power, especially in contested environments." -- Back cover.

China has evolved from a nation with local and regional security interests to a major economic and political power with global interests, investments, and political commitments. It now requires a military that can project itself around the globe, albeit on a limited scale, to secure its interests. Therefore, as Larry M. Wortzel explains, the Chinese Communist Party leadership has charged the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) with new and challenging missions that require global capabilities. Advances in technology and the development of indigenous weapons platforms in China, combined with reactions to modern conflicts, have produced a military force very different from that which China has fielded in the past. Wortzel presents a clear and sobering picture of the PLA’s modernization effort as it expands into space and cyberspace, and as it integrates operations in the traditional domains of war. This book will appeal to the specialist in security and foreign policy issues in Asia as well as to the person interested in arms control, future warfare, and global military strategies. The book puts China’s military growth into historical context for readers of recent military and diplomatic history.

Tells the story of the growing Chinese Navy - The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) - and its expanding capabilities, evolving roles and military implications for the USA. Divided into four thematic sections, this special collection of essays surveys and analyzes the most important aspects of China's navel modernization.

A RAND study analyzed Chinese and U.S. military capabilities in two scenarios (Taiwan and the Spratly Islands) from 1996 to 2017, finding that trends in most, but not all, areas run strongly against the United States. While U.S. aggregate power remains greater than China’s, distance and geography affect outcomes. China is capable of challenging U.S. military dominance on its immediate periphery—and its reach is likely to grow in the years ahead.

How will China use its increasing military capabilities in the future? China faces a complicated security environment with a wide range of internal and external threats. Rapidly expanding international interests are creating demands for the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to conduct new missions ranging from protecting Chinese shipping from Somali pirates to evacuating citizens from Libya. The most recent Chinese defense white paper states that the armed forces must "make serious preparations to cope with the most complex and difficult scenarios . . . so as to ensure proper responses . . . at any time and under any circumstances." Based on a conference co-sponsored by Taiwan's Council of Advanced Policy Studies, RAND, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and National Defense University, The People's Liberation Army and Contingency Planning in China brings together leading experts from the United States and Taiwan to examine how the PLA prepares for a range of domestic, border, and maritime...