Covid 19 And Emerging Markets

Abstract: We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for a small open economy by calibrating a SIR-multi-sector-macro model to Turkey. Sectoral supply shocks are based on the proximity requirements in each sector and the ability to work from home. Physical proximity determines the supply shock through its effect on infection rates. Sectoral demand shocks incorporate domestic and foreign demand, both of which adjust with infection rates. We calibrate demand shocks during COVID-19 using real-time credit card purchase data. Our results show that the optimal policy, which yields the lowest economic cost and saves the maximum number of lives, can be achieved under a full lockdown of 39 days. Economic costs are much larger for an open economy as the shocks are amplified through the international production network. A decline in foreign demand leads to losses in domestic sectors through international input-output linkages, accounting for a third of the total output loss. In addition, the reduction in capital flows deprives the network from its trade financing needs, where sectors with larger external finance needs experience larger losses. The policy options are limited given sparse fiscal resources to fight the pandemic domestically, while serving the external debt. We present historical evidence from 2001 crisis of Turkey, when fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies were employed altogether to deal with a triple crisis of balance of payments, banking, and sovereign debt

The COVID-19 pandemic was an extreme exogenous shock that had an adverse impact on every facet of human lives, including business. However, the pandemic has also provided an opportunity for companies to alter their business models by adopting digitalization, innovative customer interfaces, and innovative cost and revenue structures. In order to continue not only surviving but thriving through the effects of the pandemic, businesses will have to further improve and realign their models to engage clients, reskill their workforce, and advance the use of supportive technologies. Cases on Emerging Market Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic provides a set of case studies on corporate and functional strategies adopted by firms irrespective of their industry, ownership type, or size. It highlights the innovative approaches of dealing with crises to survive and sustain the performances that better suit the unique requirements of the pandemic. Covering topics such as crisis management, innovative management strategy, and social entrepreneurship, this book is an essential resource for business leaders, government organizations, hospital administration, educational administration, computer scientists, researchers, and academicians.

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated policy responses triggered a historically large wave of capital reallocation between markets and asset classes. Using high-frequency country-level data, this paper examines if and how the number of COVID cases, the stringency of the lockdown, and the fiscal and monetary policy response determined the dynamics of portfolio flows. Despite more dominant global factors, we find that these domestic factors played an important role, particularly for emerging markets and bond flows, contributing to a global wave of reallocation to safer asset classes. Our results indicate that rising domestic COVID cases had a strong positive effect on portfolio flows, which responded to an increase in financing needs in affected economies. Lockdown and fiscal policy measures also led to an increase in portfolio flows; however, evidence from the CDS market suggests that the increase in flows was dominated by supply forces, reflecting investors' preference for stronger policy responses. In contrast, we find that interest rate cuts led to a decline in portfolio flows as investors searched for higher yield. Finally, we show that COVID policy responses also affected countries' exposure to the global shock and that pre-COVID macroeconomic conditions, such as lower sovereign risk and higher trade openness, contributed to larger flows during the COVID episode.

The COVID-19 crisis has the potential to turn into the biggest emerging market (EM) crisis since 1980s. We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for a small open economy by calibrating a SIR-multi-sector-macro model to Turkey. We measure sectoral supply shocks utilizing teleworking and physical job proximity, and sectoral demand shocks with credit card purchases. Both shocks are also affected from changing infection rates under different lockdown scenarios. Our results show that the optimal policy, which yields the lowest economic cost and saves the maximum number of lives, can be achieved under a full lockdown. Being an open economy amplifies the economic costs through two main channels. First, the demand shock has domestic and external components. Second, the initial shock is magnified due to domestic and international input-output linkages. The policy options are limited given the low fiscal space to fight the pandemic and urgent external finance needs to rollover the foreign currency debt. We draw parallels between the policies employed during 2001 crisis in Turkey and discuss pros and cons of policy options to deal with the economic fallout from COVID-19.

The Covid-19 pandemic is expected to result in large and persistent losses in economic output, known as scarring. These losses were expected to be more severe in Emerging Markets than in Advanced Economies. This paper examines the impact of Covid on output in Emerging Markets so far and its implications for projections of economic scarring. While Covid has had a material impact on activity, the recovery has been stronger than initially expected. We find that these positive data surprises have over time been treated increasingly as transitory rather than a signal for the state of scarring. Second, we show that the composition of output losses has been qualitatively different from past last shocks. History suggests that the main driver of scarring is weak productivity. Covid losses, however, have so far been more skewed to employment with a smaller than usual impact on productivity. We argue that these findings suggest that scarring, while substantial, may be ultimately less severe than initially feared, at least over the medium term. We provide alternative sets of medium-term projections to indicate potential magnitudes.

This Research Topic is Volume 2 in the Research Topic series 'Economic and Financial Issues in the Post-COVID-19 World: Implications and Role of Public Health'. Both developed and developing economies have experienced significant risks and uncertainties due to the COVID-19 pandemic. There are still risks and uncertainty shocks of the COVID-19 in every aspect of the global economic and financial system, including investors' decisions and the financial sector's development. In this Research Topic, we aim to understand the dynamics of business, economic, and financial issues - including potential structural changes after the COVID-19 in emerging markets and advanced economies. This Research Topic’s main goal is to provide different aspects and consequences of economic and financial issues in emerging markets and advanced economies after the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we welcome interdisciplinary, empirical, and theoretical papers (panel data studies, survey studies, and time-series analyses) focusing on the business, economic, and financial issues after the COVID-19 crisis. We also welcome policy briefs of people working at central banks, governments, and other public institutions, focusing on these issues.

The book analyzes the recovery process of different industries and sectors from the global health pandemic, as well as its collateral effects. Focusing on emerging markets, it examines the underlying factors that have impeded recovery and how businesses in various sectors have (or have not) responded. The chapters take both a micro and macro approach, surveying the topic from both organizational and national perspectives. Divided into sections on public policy, innovation, and social responsibility, this work explores the parameters of business and economic perspectives for the construction of effective models to pursue an effective recovery. It will appeal to scholars studying how business responds in the new normal.

The lasting turmoil associated with the unprecedented pandemic, triggered by the novel corona virus COVID-19, has dragged the world into a mud of uncertainty. Fiscal stimulation, interest rate cuts, global supply-chain redeployment, "pandemic bond" and circuit breakers kicked in and the world is responding to this great challenge. But how can finance and economic research help the world under such circumstances? This book dwells on this new area of research and tries to understand how pandemics impact the economic and financial ecosystem of both emerging and advanced economies. Lessons learnt from the experience of previous pandemics maybe presented and discussed through drawing on policy lessons to date. By gathering research on political economy, geopolitical issues, behavioral finance, international institutional responses and medical and health issues resulting from pandemics, the chapters in this edited volume help in expanding the knowledge of social and economic consequences of the pandemic as well as set the foundation for future research. This book would benefit scholars, policy makers and entrepreneurs worldwide as a valuable archive of research on pandemics. The chapters in this book were originally published as a special issue of Emerging Markets Finance and Trade.